ATL: BARRY - Post-Tropical - Discussion
Moderator: S2k Moderators
-
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 2653
- Joined: Sun Aug 12, 2007 3:45 am
- Location: Florida State University
Re: ATL: BARRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion
For even more optical illusions, mesoscale-2 view has 1-minute updates centered right over Barry:
http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=1&im=60&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=40&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=mesoscale_02&p%5B0%5D=band_07&x=1371&y=730
http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=1&im=60&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=40&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=mesoscale_02&p%5B0%5D=band_07&x=1371&y=730
0 likes
- MississippiWx
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 1699
- Joined: Sat Aug 14, 2010 1:44 pm
- Location: Hattiesburg, Mississippi
Re: ATL: BARRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Starting to see evidence of the band near the center expand its outflow to the east and north. This could be a sign that shear is abating somewhat.
2 likes
This post is not an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of MississippiWx and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: BARRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion
There is finally deep convection trying to grow towards the "center". IR is showing rapidly cooling cloud-tops trying to extend north. Guess we'll see what happens, but sheer still looks pretty bad.
0 likes
-
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 2653
- Joined: Sun Aug 12, 2007 3:45 am
- Location: Florida State University
Re: ATL: BARRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Appears as if the former low-level circulation has moved inland, with a new one now attemping to form towards the SW closer to the convection. Image below shows former LLC circled in red and roughly the new LLC location in green:

This loops shows the entire process occurring:

This is also closer to the MLC, which can be seen from the long-range New Orleans radar loop:


This loops shows the entire process occurring:

This is also closer to the MLC, which can be seen from the long-range New Orleans radar loop:

0 likes
- Hurricane Alexis
- Category 2
- Posts: 683
- Age: 29
- Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2012 7:59 pm
- Location: Miami,Florida
Re: ATL: BARRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Miami radar shows that Barry’s rainbands are extending out to South Florida. Lots of lightning, heavy rain and wind gusts to 40 mph.
1 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: BARRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Yesterday's afternoon popups across the SE CONUS really did a number on that combined Dry Slot / PV Streamer.
Only thing left is a small area just NE of Barry's CoC. It is quickly dissipating.
The PV Streamer has broken away from it. It is now east of the Barry's CoC and moving away.
Outflow has dramatically improved and covers about 3/4 of Barry's circumferance.




Only thing left is a small area just NE of Barry's CoC. It is quickly dissipating.
The PV Streamer has broken away from it. It is now east of the Barry's CoC and moving away.
Outflow has dramatically improved and covers about 3/4 of Barry's circumferance.




2 likes
Re: ATL: BARRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Heavy convection firing right over a CAPE ridge west of the CoC.
Barry will track into this.
Yesterday afternoon, a 6000 CAPE ridge developed over the Loop Current which in part fueled the subsequent increase in convection.
WISHE most likely created the increase in CAPE.
Watching this area again for the same type of development today.



Barry will track into this.
Yesterday afternoon, a 6000 CAPE ridge developed over the Loop Current which in part fueled the subsequent increase in convection.
WISHE most likely created the increase in CAPE.
Watching this area again for the same type of development today.



2 likes
Re: ATL: BARRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Feels like a waiting game to see if it fires convection N/NE of the center, if it does I have a feeling it can get going fast.
1 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- somethingfunny
- ChatStaff
- Posts: 3926
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 31, 2007 10:30 pm
- Location: McKinney, Texas
Re: ATL: BARRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion
https://twitter.com/i/status/764928766267105281
Satellite appearance on day 1-2 of Barry doesn't look too far off from the system in 2016 at days 1 and 2
Satellite appearance on day 1-2 of Barry doesn't look too far off from the system in 2016 at days 1 and 2
0 likes
I am not a meteorologist, and any posts made by me are not official forecasts or to be interpreted as being intelligent. These posts are just my opinions and are probably silly opinions.
Re: ATL: BARRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion
GCANE wrote:Yesterday's afternoon popups across the SE CONUS really did a number on that combined Dry Slot / PV Streamer.
Only thing left is a small area just NE of Barry's CoC. It is quickly dissipating.
The PV Streamer has broken away from it. It is now east of the Barry's CoC and moving away.
Outflow has dramatically improved and covers about 3/4 of Barry's circumferance.
https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img921/2028/GldXx1.png
https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/8786/53BBx4.png
https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img921/6175/i5bHqB.png
https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/2772/khlDnN.png
Another great view of the mid level water vapor, showing the moistening up of the north and east quadrants of Barry. Check out the Weather.coc.edu. site. Go the mid-level WV at 200 frames.
Sure hoping this thing doesn’t bomb out on us tonight and tomorrow. I’ll be better prepared this time than in 2016. ☔️
2 likes
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: BARRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Looks like Kremit is doing "The hunt for the center", looks to be more south of previous NHC position, but hard to tell.....
0 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: BARRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Airboy wrote:Looks like Kremit is doing "The hunt for the center", looks to be more south of previous NHC position, but hard to tell.....
Is going through the area where the mid level circulation is but nothing indicates yet that the LLC has relocated further south. It was at a high altitude when it went through the approximate area where the LLC is.
0 likes
Re: ATL: BARRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion
50 miles south of its center, 50 mph winds. Edited for bad wording.
Last edited by SoupBone on Fri Jul 12, 2019 5:46 am, edited 1 time in total.
1 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
-
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 233
- Age: 55
- Joined: Sat Oct 20, 2018 12:32 pm
- Contact:
Re: ATL: BARRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion
To keep this simple, I fully anticipate that "Barry" will finally be able to wrap convection around the LLC to the NE and ultimately develop an eyewall/inner core prior to crossing the La coastline Saturday AM. Despite the Northery shear and dry air, it has continued to slowly intensify.
Although a 65 kt Cat 1 seems most likely, it's conceivable that Barry could even reach a peak intensity of 75 kt...with the extremely warm water, a slight reduction in shear, and the effects of frictional convergence as it's closing in on landfall. To me, 60 kt seems to be a virtual certainty, 65 kt most likely, and 70-75 kt still achievable. Regardless of exact strength, look for Barry to actually resemble a full-fledged TC by this time tomorrow morning.
EDIT: Please note that the more significant organization and intensification will likely occur once it turns to a more northerly trajectory and the effects of FC helps tighten the core.
Although a 65 kt Cat 1 seems most likely, it's conceivable that Barry could even reach a peak intensity of 75 kt...with the extremely warm water, a slight reduction in shear, and the effects of frictional convergence as it's closing in on landfall. To me, 60 kt seems to be a virtual certainty, 65 kt most likely, and 70-75 kt still achievable. Regardless of exact strength, look for Barry to actually resemble a full-fledged TC by this time tomorrow morning.
EDIT: Please note that the more significant organization and intensification will likely occur once it turns to a more northerly trajectory and the effects of FC helps tighten the core.
Last edited by ncforecaster89 on Fri Jul 12, 2019 6:28 am, edited 2 times in total.
0 likes
- wxman57
- Moderator-Pro Met
- Posts: 22979
- Age: 67
- Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
- Location: Houston, TX (southwest)
Re: ATL: BARRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion
I don't see any changes from 12 hours ago. Still a sheared, poorly-organized storm. Center is exposed north of the convection. No sign of convection wrapping around it. Time to finish up the next advisory before my 7am conference call...
4 likes
Re: ATL: BARRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion
That was one quick trip by the NOAA recon plane, it is already heading back but there's an AF recon heading in.
0 likes
- South Texas Storms
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 4227
- Joined: Thu Jun 24, 2010 12:28 am
- Location: Houston, TX
Re: ATL: BARRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion
wxman57 wrote:I don't see any changes from 12 hours ago. Still a sheared, poorly-organized storm. Center is exposed north of the convection. No sign of convection wrapping around it. Time to finish up the next advisory before my 7am conference call...
Agreed, I doubt this makes hurricane strength. It probably only has about 24 hours left over water, and it doesn't look to have strengthened much from yesterday.
0 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 5 guests