ATL: BARRY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[USTropics]

For even more optical illusions, mesoscale-2 view has 1-minute updates centered right over Barry:

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=1&im=60&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=40&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=mesoscale_02&p%5B0%5D=band_07&x=1371&y=730

[MississippiWx]

Starting to see evidence of the band near the center expand its outflow to the east and north. This could be a sign that shear is abating somewhat.

[BRweather]

There is finally deep convection trying to grow towards the "center". IR is showing rapidly cooling cloud-tops trying to extend north. Guess we'll see what happens, but sheer still looks pretty bad.

[USTropics]

Appears as if the former low-level circulation has moved inland, with a new one now attemping to form towards the SW closer to the convection. Image below shows former LLC circled in red and roughly the new LLC location in green:


This loops shows the entire process occurring:


This is also closer to the MLC, which can be seen from the long-range New Orleans radar loop:

[Hurricane Alexis]

Miami radar shows that Barry’s rainbands are extending out to South Florida. Lots of lightning, heavy rain and wind gusts to 40 mph.

[GCANE]

Yesterday's afternoon popups across the SE CONUS really did a number on that combined Dry Slot / PV Streamer.

Only thing left is a small area just NE of Barry's CoC. It is quickly dissipating.

The PV Streamer has broken away from it. It is now east of the Barry's CoC and moving away.

Outflow has dramatically improved and covers about 3/4 of Barry's circumferance.

[GCANE]

Kermit heading in.

[GCANE]

Heavy convection firing right over a CAPE ridge west of the CoC.
Barry will track into this.
Yesterday afternoon, a 6000 CAPE ridge developed over the Loop Current which in part fueled the subsequent increase in convection.
WISHE most likely created the increase in CAPE.
Watching this area again for the same type of development today.

[Airboy]

Feels like a waiting game to see if it fires convection N/NE of the center, if it does I have a feeling it can get going fast.

[somethingfunny]

https://twitter.com/i/status/764928766267105281

Satellite appearance on day 1-2 of Barry doesn't look too far off from the system in 2016 at days 1 and 2

[GCANE]

WV improving dramatically around Barry's core.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_US/animwv.html

[GCANE]

AF302 heading in.

[tailgater]

Yesterday's afternoon popups across the SE CONUS really did a number on that combined Dry Slot / PV Streamer.

Only thing left is a small area just NE of Barry's CoC. It is quickly dissipating.

The PV Streamer has broken away from it. It is now east of the Barry's CoC and moving away.

Outflow has dramatically improved and covers about 3/4 of Barry's circumferance.


https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img921/2028/GldXx1.png
https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/8786/53BBx4.png
https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img921/6175/i5bHqB.png
https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/2772/khlDnN.png

Another great view of the mid level water vapor, showing the moistening up of the north and east quadrants of Barry. Check out the Weather.coc.edu. site. Go the mid-level WV at 200 frames.
Sure hoping this thing doesn’t bomb out on us tonight and tomorrow. I’ll be better prepared this time than in 2016. ☔️

[Airboy]

Looks like Kremit is doing "The hunt for the center", looks to be more south of previous NHC position, but hard to tell.....

[NDG]

Looks like Kremit is doing "The hunt for the center", looks to be more south of previous NHC position, but hard to tell.....

Is going through the area where the mid level circulation is but nothing indicates yet that the LLC has relocated further south. It was at a high altitude when it went through the approximate area where the LLC is.

[SoupBone]

50 miles south of its center, 50 mph winds. Edited for bad wording.

[ncforecaster89]

To keep this simple, I fully anticipate that "Barry" will finally be able to wrap convection around the LLC to the NE and ultimately develop an eyewall/inner core prior to crossing the La coastline Saturday AM. Despite the Northery shear and dry air, it has continued to slowly intensify.

Although a 65 kt Cat 1 seems most likely, it's conceivable that Barry could even reach a peak intensity of 75 kt...with the extremely warm water, a slight reduction in shear, and the effects of frictional convergence as it's closing in on landfall. To me, 60 kt seems to be a virtual certainty, 65 kt most likely, and 70-75 kt still achievable. Regardless of exact strength, look for Barry to actually resemble a full-fledged TC by this time tomorrow morning.

EDIT: Please note that the more significant organization and intensification will likely occur once it turns to a more northerly trajectory and the effects of FC helps tighten the core.

[wxman57]

I don't see any changes from 12 hours ago. Still a sheared, poorly-organized storm. Center is exposed north of the convection. No sign of convection wrapping around it. Time to finish up the next advisory before my 7am conference call...

[NDG]

That was one quick trip by the NOAA recon plane, it is already heading back but there's an AF recon heading in.

[South Texas Storms]

I don't see any changes from 12 hours ago. Still a sheared, poorly-organized storm. Center is exposed north of the convection. No sign of convection wrapping around it. Time to finish up the next advisory before my 7am conference call...

Agreed, I doubt this makes hurricane strength. It probably only has about 24 hours left over water, and it doesn't look to have strengthened much from yesterday.