ATL: DORIAN - Models

[Ken711]

Looks like a trend west for current model runs. Hopefully it doesn't continue. Not out of the woods.

Nobody out off the woods in any respect from Florida to Virginia.

[hohnywx]

The UKMO is still offshore but got to say, thats really not that far from brushing the east coast of Florida on that 12z, a fairly close approach and wouldn't take much of a westward shift to bring the eyewall close to the coast....

And it seems to have come westward from its previous run.

[Ian2401]

CMC running now, initialized slightly S and slower at 12 hours

[LarryWx]

CMC headed to Canaveral

[Javlin]

Cimss steering layer looks due W for a while with a stronger ridge to the N how long that holds out is another question but Dorian is on the move today.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/d ... oom=&time=

[Aric Dunn]

CMC headed to Canaveral

yeah it has west motion for about 12 hours then turns wnw.. allowing it to get to the coast with the gradual turn.

[b0tzy29]

Lets hope this isnt the beginning of a trend. I see a slight shift south and west. This is going to be so close guys.

[LarryWx]

CMC headed to Canaveral

yeah it has west motion for about 12 hours then turns wnw.. allowing it to get to the coast with the gradual turn.

Next frame (54), CMC turns west just offshore Melbourne! Then stalls barely offshore.

[gatorcane]

CMC looks to have Dorian way too weak

[beachman80]

Good thing CMC is not very reliable. It’s been horrible with storms. About as bad as ICON and NAVGEM.

[Blinhart]

So the ICON have a stronger ridge forcing it in and up Florida as I can understand it.

Icon isn't a very good model so I wouldn't put much weight into it.

Really cant say that, since it is a new model.

[NDG]

For whatever is worth, but a trend is a trend.

[LarryWx]

CMC actual LF barely N of Canaveral at 72.

[tronbunny]

12z ICON moves it N-NW up the spine of Florida after landfall in Ft Laud. What might be a trend to look at is ICON brings it south of the northern Bahama islands and doesn't stall it like the Euro. Second longer term trend is look at the strengthening 500mb ridge south of Bermuda and east of the storm in days 4-5. This massive ridge is expanding and extending all the way to almost the NC coast and keeping the storm from recurving until it reaches north Florida on this run.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=icon&region=us&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2019083112&fh=3

This is the same ICON model that saw Dorian east of PR before others?

[catskillfire51]

12z ICON moves it N-NW up the spine of Florida after landfall in Ft Laud. What might be a trend to look at is ICON brings it south of the northern Bahama islands and doesn't stall it like the Euro. Second longer term trend is look at the strengthening 500mb ridge south of Bermuda and east of the storm in days 4-5. This massive ridge is expanding and extending all the way to almost the NC coast and keeping the storm from recurving until it reaches north Florida on this run.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=icon&region=us&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2019083112&fh=3

This is the same ICON model that saw Dorien east of PR before others?

Yes

[Kat5]

Good thing CMC is not very reliable. It’s been horrible with storms. About as bad as ICON and NAVGEM.

I consider it reliable as an early indicator of height changes. Definitely not on intensity, and exact positioning.

[SouthFLTropics]

HWRF is running and is a bit sw of 06z as well.

[gatorcane]

Note the ICON shifted SW a decent amount. There are some Euro ensembles that show something similar.

[Blown Away]

12z HWRF @30-40 miles SW of 06z at @9 hours...

[Shell Mound]

The ICON has consistently displayed a southwesterly bias with DORIAN near FL because it unrealistically deepens the system in the Gulf, hence shortwave ridging.

The slight SW shifts by reliable global models won't change the outcome beyond the northern Bahamas. OTS is still heavily favoured after the Bahamas.