ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Highteeld]

Pushing the limits of what's possible in the Atlantic

[bohaiboy]

How deep is the water where the crazy SFMR values are being recorded?

Actually the waters east of Great Abaco is not all that shallow. I believe they are >1000ft deep

Actually not too far east of Great Abaco is a ridge where the water depths drop to more than 15,000 ft deep,

[Ian2401]

If I were anywhere near WPB I would be extraordinarily concerned right about now.

i am getting really uneasy

[DestinHurricane]

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the east coast of Florida from
north of Deerfield Beach to the Volusia/Brevard County Line.

[La Sirena]

That's okay, if I were on the east coast I would NOT head to Polk County or the Gulf Coast. There is no definitive idea where this storm will go or turn over the Peninsula if it makes landfall. Tallahassee and NW Florida might be a good bet, Dothan, AL, etc. better.

You had to bring Dothan into it lol. But, people here started prepping last week as a “just in case”. Last Wednesday they had almost wiped out all the generators from Sam’s Club.

I always make a reservation some of your local hotels in July and Early August for various weeks in August, September, and October just in case we need to bug out.

We just opened a few nice and new ones here! If you Big out this way then give me a shout. We’ll take you to dinner

[WeatherEmperor]

11am advisory has 180mph


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[ronyan]

And we have now reached sub-27 in Hg.

[Aric Dunn]

With the NOAA plane I am still getting at least 12mph

Plane fixes may not be in the exact center. Beware!

The NHC uses REcon center fixes all the time and even mentioned the calculations in the discussion from time to time.

yes the low level center can rotate around inside the eye .. but the true center is still useable for the speed calc with little deviation.

[HurricaneEnzo]

DVORAK IS NOT THE BE ALL END ALL OF CYCLONE INTENSITY. They will go with what the recon tells them to go with.

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[Buck]

11:00 AM EDT Sun Sep 1
Location: 26.5°N 76.8°W
Moving: W at 7 mph
Min pressure: 913 mb
Max sustained: 180 mph

[EquusStorm]

180/913

[northjaxpro]

It actually maxed out the color scale on WV. What the hell????


https://i.imgur.com/75QmrJB.jpg

https://i.imgur.com/yVwcTZV.jpg

Holy crap. Is that on band 9? Band 8 has to be looking pretty toasty too, especially compared to the surrounding environment.

Here is the WV loop, you can atually see the eye turning from dark orange to grey. Don't think I've ever seen this before

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/goes/abi/ ... and08.html

https://i.imgur.com/7OJaMJL.gif

I certainly have NEVER seen that color scheme on satellite imagery ever!

[Ivanhater]

For those folks saying it wouldn't survive the Caribbean. Just wow

[supercane4867]

The eye is about as clear as you can get in a tropical cyclone

[FLpanhandle91]

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.5N 76.8W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM ENE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...180 MPH...285 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...913 MB...26.96 INCHES

[tiger_deF]

Eyewall dropsonde recorded 176kt surface winds, which I believe is a new record for surface winds measured by drop.
I think those SFMR readings are valid. There was also 195kts measured not too far up from the surface with that drop.
I believe this is a 170kt hurricane. Absolutely unbelievable.

I'd want to see flight level winds much higher before going into uncharted waters like that. At this rate, who knows, maybe it will close off a CDG ring and end up like Haiyan or Patricia?

https://i.imgur.com/B5PKyDR.jpg

This doesn't even have a W ring... Eye temps could easily rival Patricia though.

It's worth pointing out that farther North tropical systems tend to have trouble producing cloud tops as cold as in the deep tropics, and Dvorak estimates tend to be underdone as hurricanes can be stronger with warmer cloud tops

[CronkPSU]

any changes to the track?

[SEASON_CANCELED]

180???

What was Wilma?

[hohnywx]

any changes to the track?

Per discussion, a few miles westward

[HurricaneEnzo]

I'd want to see flight level winds much higher before going into uncharted waters like that. At this rate, who knows, maybe it will close off a CDG ring and end up like Haiyan or Patricia?

https://i.imgur.com/B5PKyDR.jpg

This doesn't even have a W ring... Eye temps could easily rival Patricia though.

It's worth pointing out that farther North tropical systems tend to have trouble producing cloud tops as cold as in the deep tropics, and Dvorak estimates tend to be underdone as hurricanes can be stronger with warmer cloud tops

Thank you! Some people hug Dvorak way too much. We have actual recon data don't need dvorak.

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