ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
Pushing the limits of what's possible in the Atlantic
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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
supercane4867 wrote:1900hurricane wrote:How deep is the water where the crazy SFMR values are being recorded?
Actually the waters east of Great Abaco is not all that shallow. I believe they are >1000ft deep
Actually not too far east of Great Abaco is a ridge where the water depths drop to more than 15,000 ft deep,
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
Texashawk wrote:If I were anywhere near WPB I would be extraordinarily concerned right about now.
i am getting really uneasy
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B.S. Meteorology from Florida State '24 // Current M.S. Meteorology student at Florida State
Research Interests: Rapid Intensification, TC Climatology, TC Modeling
Consult the NHC for official information
Research Interests: Rapid Intensification, TC Climatology, TC Modeling
Consult the NHC for official information
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the east coast of Florida from
north of Deerfield Beach to the Volusia/Brevard County Line.
north of Deerfield Beach to the Volusia/Brevard County Line.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
johngaltfla wrote:La Sirena wrote:johngaltfla wrote:
That's okay, if I were on the east coast I would NOT head to Polk County or the Gulf Coast. There is no definitive idea where this storm will go or turn over the Peninsula if it makes landfall. Tallahassee and NW Florida might be a good bet, Dothan, AL, etc. better.
You had to bring Dothan into it lol. But, people here started prepping last week as a “just in case”. Last Wednesday they had almost wiped out all the generators from Sam’s Club.
I always make a reservation some of your local hotels in July and Early August for various weeks in August, September, and October just in case we need to bug out.
We just opened a few nice and new ones here! If you Big out this way then give me a shout. We’ll take you to dinner

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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
11am advisory has 180mph
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
wxman57 wrote:xironman wrote:With the NOAA plane I am still getting at least 12mph
Plane fixes may not be in the exact center. Beware!
The NHC uses REcon center fixes all the time and even mentioned the calculations in the discussion from time to time.
yes the low level center can rotate around inside the eye .. but the true center is still useable for the speed calc with little deviation.
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Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
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If there is nothing before... then just ask

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
DVORAK IS NOT THE BE ALL END ALL OF CYCLONE INTENSITY. They will go with what the recon tells them to go with.
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Bertha 96' - Fran 96' - Bonnie 98' - Dennis 99' - Floyd 99' - Isabel 03' - Alex 04' - Ophelia 05' - Irene 11' - Arthur 14' - Matthew 16' - Florence 18' - Dorian 19' - Isaias 20' (countless other tropical storms and Hurricane swipes)
I am not a Professional Met just an enthusiast. Get your weather forecasts from the Pros!
I am not a Professional Met just an enthusiast. Get your weather forecasts from the Pros!
Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
11:00 AM EDT Sun Sep 1
Location: 26.5°N 76.8°W
Moving: W at 7 mph
Min pressure: 913 mb
Max sustained: 180 mph
Location: 26.5°N 76.8°W
Moving: W at 7 mph
Min pressure: 913 mb
Max sustained: 180 mph
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
180/913
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Colors of lost purpose on the canvas of irrelevance
Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.
Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
supercane4867 wrote:1900hurricane wrote:supercane4867 wrote:
It actually maxed out the color scale on WV. What the hell????
https://i.imgur.com/75QmrJB.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/yVwcTZV.jpg
Holy crap. Is that on band 9? Band 8 has to be looking pretty toasty too, especially compared to the surrounding environment.
Here is the WV loop, you can atually see the eye turning from dark orange to grey. Don't think I've ever seen this before
https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/goes/abi/ ... and08.html
https://i.imgur.com/7OJaMJL.gif
I certainly have NEVER seen that color scheme on satellite imagery ever!
Last edited by northjaxpro on Sun Sep 01, 2019 9:58 am, edited 1 time in total.
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NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
For those folks saying it wouldn't survive the Caribbean. Just wow
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
The eye is about as clear as you can get in a tropical cyclone


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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.5N 76.8W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM ENE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...180 MPH...285 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...913 MB...26.96 INCHES
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.5N 76.8W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM ENE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...180 MPH...285 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...913 MB...26.96 INCHES
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
Yellow Evan wrote:CrazyC83 wrote:Chris90 wrote:Eyewall dropsonde recorded 176kt surface winds, which I believe is a new record for surface winds measured by drop.
I think those SFMR readings are valid. There was also 195kts measured not too far up from the surface with that drop.
I believe this is a 170kt hurricane. Absolutely unbelievable.
I'd want to see flight level winds much higher before going into uncharted waters like that. At this rate, who knows, maybe it will close off a CDG ring and end up like Haiyan or Patricia?
https://i.imgur.com/B5PKyDR.jpg
This doesn't even have a W ring... Eye temps could easily rival Patricia though.
It's worth pointing out that farther North tropical systems tend to have trouble producing cloud tops as cold as in the deep tropics, and Dvorak estimates tend to be underdone as hurricanes can be stronger with warmer cloud tops
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
any changes to the track?
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Just like Jon Snow..."I know nothing" except what I know, and most of what I know is gathered by the fine people of the NHC
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
180???
What was Wilma?
What was Wilma?
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
CronkPSU wrote:any changes to the track?
Per discussion, a few miles westward
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
Thank you! Some people hug Dvorak way too much. We have actual recon data don't need dvorak.tiger_deF wrote:Yellow Evan wrote:CrazyC83 wrote:
I'd want to see flight level winds much higher before going into uncharted waters like that. At this rate, who knows, maybe it will close off a CDG ring and end up like Haiyan or Patricia?
https://i.imgur.com/B5PKyDR.jpg
This doesn't even have a W ring... Eye temps could easily rival Patricia though.
It's worth pointing out that farther North tropical systems tend to have trouble producing cloud tops as cold as in the deep tropics, and Dvorak estimates tend to be underdone as hurricanes can be stronger with warmer cloud tops
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Bertha 96' - Fran 96' - Bonnie 98' - Dennis 99' - Floyd 99' - Isabel 03' - Alex 04' - Ophelia 05' - Irene 11' - Arthur 14' - Matthew 16' - Florence 18' - Dorian 19' - Isaias 20' (countless other tropical storms and Hurricane swipes)
I am not a Professional Met just an enthusiast. Get your weather forecasts from the Pros!
I am not a Professional Met just an enthusiast. Get your weather forecasts from the Pros!
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