ATL: BARRY - Models

[tarheelprogrammer]

NAM 12km @ 18z moves the circulation up toward the LA Coast and then runs the coast on down to about Bay City/Lake Jackson

3km is still off the LA Coast and hasn't finished it's run to 60 hours yet to see if it will also hook off west or come inland.

lol I will give it to the NAM it is persistent with its tracks to Texas, even when it has to turn on a dime to the west to get there.

[MississippiWx]

NAM 12km @ 18z moves the circulation up toward the LA Coast and then runs the coast on down to about Bay City/Lake Jackson

3km is still off the LA Coast and hasn't finished it's run to 60 hours yet to see if it will also hook off west or come inland. Jumped to 60h and is still offshore of the SC LA Coast at 883mb. Lol

Moving due north at that time. Even jumped a little east on the last frame. The intensity is bogus, but the track is very similar to the Euro and GFS.

[SoupBone]

ICON looks like it moved slightly west of last run, but it's really hard to zoom in and see.

[Steve]

ICON looks like it moved slightly west of last run, but it's really hard to zoom in and see.

Lake Charles to Little Rock

[NDG]

ICON looks like it moved slightly west of last run, but it's really hard to zoom in and see.

Maybe by ten miles.

[NDG]

ICON looks like it moved slightly west of last run, but it's really hard to zoom in and see.

Lake Charles to Little Rock

That's a lot closer to Lafayette than to Lake Charles

[jconsor]

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1149069365817556993

[SoupBone]

https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1149069365817556993

I wonder if this is why the NHC/NWS barely adjusted their track? And is he suggesting the UKMET will be correct?

[StormLogic]

https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1149069365817556993

Been saying this since monday

[Steve]

ICON looks like it moved slightly west of last run, but it's really hard to zoom in and see.

Lake Charles to Little Rock

That's a lot closer to Lafayette than to Lake Charles

https://i.imgur.com/VK2X5Nq.gif

It's like Abbeville. But there was a specific point in the run where it about jumped on top of Lake Charles. Then when it's in Arkansas, it finds its way to the middle of the state near Little Rock. I wasn't talking the landfall, sorry if that wasn't clear.

[SoupBone]

The GFS is doing some weird loop-de-loop off the Louisiana coast then heading NE on Saturday into central Louisiana.

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS hours 00-78:

[South Texas Storms]

https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1149069365817556993

I wonder if this is why the NHC/NWS barely adjusted their track? And is he suggesting the UKMET will be correct?

That along with the fact that NHC doesn't like to make big shifts with each forecast cycle. Still too early to rule out a possible landfall in southeast TX. UKMET and Canadian could very well be right. I think we'll have a lot more confidence in the forecast at this time tomorrow.

[Steve]

GFS 18z comes in around Amelia/Morgan City at 993. Looks like the GFS almost wants to pull west there for a bit before hooking back. It's been having more runs with a quicker to NE than most of the models that bring Barry in on a NW or NNW or even due north heading after landfall. Canadian and the hurricanes had some quicker NE outs in some of their runs too. I'm not sure how it goes out or if the GFS is going to be right. You'd think with an intensifying storm at landfall, it wouldn't find a quick way into the westerlies since they'd likely be farther north. Of course it's not every day we have a July hurricane threat on the northern gulf. I'm sure I can speak for everyone from Tampa over to Houma that it's kind of cool in a different way to have an unpredictable system forming right on top of you. You don't get that every day either.

[sphelps8681]

18z GFS hours 00-78:
https://i.imgur.com/ipKd37K.gif

According to a post earlier this model and others and errors on the 12z and 18 z runs.

[Steve]

18z GFS hours 00-78:
https://i.imgur.com/ipKd37K.gif

According to a post earlier this model and others and errors on the 12z and 18 z runs.

They always have issues. Either they initialize in the wrong place or handle horse latitude features wrong. There's almost always something, and you have to expect that. I appreciate jc bringing the tweet to our attention, because if it does end up mattering, there are a lot of people from Galveston up through the Triangle who won't have a ton of time to prepare considering we'd likely be around only 3 days or so until impact. A lot of folks work and maybe are on vacation or whatever and will only have a limited time to take care of things.

[TexasF6]

Looks like the center may be under that new hot tower firing now. Just my eyes! I saw a promet tweet saying there are errors in the GFS 18z, in regards to the high pressure not being accounted for in the data.






The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[StormLogic]

Don't count on any "for sure" forecasts for "Barry" today. The blocking ridge is probably going to make drastic changes to the outcome in the next 48hrs.

[TexWx]

Looks like the center may be under that new hot tower firing now. Just my eyes! I saw a promet tweet saying there are errors in the GFS 18z, in regards to the high pressure not being accounted for in the data.

I was looking there too.



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.[/quote]

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS hours 00-78:
https://i.imgur.com/ipKd37K.gif

According to a post earlier this model and others and errors on the 12z and 18 z runs.

They always have issues. Either they initialize in the wrong place or handle horse latitude features wrong. There's almost always something, and you have to expect that. I appreciate jc bringing the tweet to our attention, because if it does end up mattering, there are a lot of people from Galveston up through the Triangle who won't have a ton of time to prepare considering we'd likely be around only 3 days or so until impact. A lot of folks work and maybe are on vacation or whatever and will only have a limited time to take care of things.

I understand. The only reason I'm posting it is for formality and archive reasons.