ATL: BARRY - Models

[BRweather]

The NAM yes.. Poor choice not to pay attention to the UKMET.

Aric, could you explain why?

UKMET is one of the most reliable models.. besides florence last year it often sniffs out ridge strength. so we are cutting hairs here. The last 3 runs of the ukmet has reliably had the ridge strength correct and the extent.

Yes, but I think the front will be more important in the long run than the ridge. The front is providing the weakness and if it is present then it really has no chance to get caught under the ridge. The UKMET does not model the front correctly, IMO.

I could be wrong, but looking at the radar throughout the day and what the UKMET modeled....something doesn't match up.

[Hurricaneman]

Looks like the NAM out through 9 hours is weaker and has shifted east.

Bad initialization so in should be tossed

[Nimbus]

Sounds as though some of the models are amplifying and digging that second cold front south to pick up two? Now if this could just drag a big slug of dry air over from Texas before landfall..
The environment has been a little dry to the west of the system but no way to get that dry air into the core without just the right kind of shear.

[SoupBone]

The NAM yes.. Poor choice not to pay attention to the UKMET.

Aric, could you explain why?

UKMET is one of the most reliable models.. besides florence last year it often sniffs out ridge strength. so we are cutting hairs here. The last 3 runs of the ukmet has reliably had the ridge strength correct and the extent.

Thanks for the explanation.

[Roxy]

ahhh, the wibble wobble game. This is why I depend on Storm2k for my inside info. Don't tell your neighbors unless they want to donate.

I will take some rain in Houston, in decent amounts of course.

where is that donate link again???

[hohnywx]

Looks like the NAM out through 9 hours is weaker and has shifted east.

Bad initialization so in should be tossed

It’s the NAM...it should always be tossed

[Steve]

Looks like the NAM out through 9 hours is weaker and has shifted east.

Bad initialization so in should be tossed

It’s the NAM...it should always be tossed

Entertainment, but it's the only thing out this hour. You know to occasionally expect random and usually inconsistent solutions. Latest 3km through 44 shows a move south and then basically a stall for about a day before moving toward SELA at 954. So it organizes while it spins but doesn't spend that much time out on the water. I was hoping for 883mb again, but that was probably being greedy. It did drop 13mb right at landfall.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1100&fh=44

edit - gets to 944 at landfall valid 52 hours

[Wx_Warrior]

10pm NHC update

[ScottNAtlanta]

where is that donate link again???

There is a "donate with paypal" link on the top right of the page

[Steve]

NHC shifts east over to about Bayou Teche - New Iberia/Franklin and reduced the maximum windspeed to 75. Presumably slightly less time over water yields the 10mph maximum wind reduction. Landfall is Saturday afternoon so a little over 65 or so hours as they see it.

I find it really kind of weird being this close and not having a clue what I'm going to be facing. It could be barely some fringe elements to biblical rainfall to a possible brush with an inner core and powerline & treelimb issues. I'm going to try to stay and model watch, but I can't post images from this device easily.

[Stormcenter]

Something tells me it won’t be just barely fringe
elements in SE LA.

NHC shifts east over to about Bayou Teche - New Iberia/Franklin and reduced the maximum windspeed to 75. Presumably slightly less time over water yields the 10mph maximum wind reduction. Landfall is Saturday afternoon so a little over 65 or so hours as they see it.

I find it really kind of weird being this close and not having a clue what I'm going to be facing. It could be barely some fringe elements to biblical rainfall to a possible brush with an inner core and powerline & treelimb issues. I'm going to try to stay and model watch, but I can't post images from this device easily.

[Steve]

Word. But we're going to see. It's hard to discount the western models completely. And the farther west landfall is, the less we're going to see. That would be particularly true at least a little while as many models have depicted the northern portion of the storm to not have as much associated weather for the bands and structure. That also remains to be seen though it's plausible to me. Maybe it fills in a bit toward landfall if it is intensifying then? Where it's progged now would mean some decent squalls and feeder bands. Hopefully we won't see a ton more training because today was already enough, but you already know how that goes. Also where the NHC has it puts the super rainfall probably across Lafourche and St. Charles and then into what they call the River Parishes. We'd get several more inches but probably not the catastrophic levels that will be 35-50 miles west of here. If it landfalls farther east, those bets are off. Then if the hurricane models are right, there's going to be damage, power outages, downed trees and power lines and the other things that come with a Category 1. We're in good shape at the crib but we might have to deal with garbage cans, hoses, plants and outdoor stuff which we're waiting to handle later if necessary since it won't take 10 minutes to deal with.

GFS ought to be next. For now, SFWMD shows some coalescing around Terrebonne or St. Mary Parishes.
https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/hur ... odel-plots

[ROCK]

I would wait for it.. CMC and UKMet can’t be tossed..NAM yes lol UKMET is right up there with EURO. If the EURO shifts west tonight the more SW it dives tonight the more west it will be at landfall. It’s still a very dynamic situation where climo suggests stronger ridging and not some bad ass front diving into the lower 48 lmao..

[sphelps8681]

Word. But we're going to see. It's hard to discount the western models completely. And the farther west landfall is, the less we're going to see. That would be particularly true at least a little while as many models have depicted the northern portion of the storm to not have as much associated weather for the bands and structure. That also remains to be seen though it's plausible to me. Maybe it fills in a bit toward landfall if it is intensifying then? Where it's progged now would mean some decent squalls and feeder bands. Hopefully we won't see a ton more training because today was already enough, but you already know how that goes. Also where the NHC has it puts the super rainfall probably across Lafourche and St. Charles and then into what they call the River Parishes. We'd get several more inches but probably not the catastrophic levels that will be 35-50 miles west of here. If it landfalls farther east, those bets are off. Then if the hurricane models are right, there's going to be damage, power outages, downed trees and power lines and the other things that come with a Category 1. We're in good shape at the crib but we might have to deal with garbage cans, hoses, plants and outdoor stuff which we're waiting to handle later if necessary since it won't take 10 minutes to deal with.

GFS ought to be next. For now, SFWMD shows some coalescing around Terrebonne or St. Mary Parishes.
https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/hur ... odel-plots

Be safe and good luck. Let us know if you need anything.

[Steve]

It's going okay on the GFS which is showing 1003 tomorrow night at 7. We'll see how it handles Friday and Saturday, but I don't expect it to show it petering out. It's not supposed to be a textbook cat 5 in the western Atlantic, and it's July, so you get what you get. Some people felt like low end Cat 2 might be the ceiling. I don't think it's that high without a stall or a farther westward track than the NHC has. I'm going to predict this run of the GFS will take it down into the mid 980's and possibly 10mb or so lower. As it is at 48 hours, it's about 991, so that might be a good guess.

[Blinhart]

I have been on this forum for a while and find it great how much you guys put into what you do, that said the NHC are normally on the ball with storm tracks

NHC is locked in on the track at 3 days out, if you are on the line or 30 miles either side except to take the eyewall..they have been that good the last couple of years

Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk

Eye is on track to pass right over my house as of now

And if your like me, I don't like that.

[SoupBone]

GFS has it bouncing around then moving in on top of Terrebonne Parish. That's a good bit east of the previous run.

[Steve]

Landfall Saturday low 990's so borderline TS/low end 1? We'll see how fast it moves out. Looks east of the 18z and slightly east of the 12z but also slightly weaker than 12z. Slow movement through SELA into SWMS taking about 24 hours to get to up around Bogalusa and Franklinton. Near landfall and post landfall seems to be where all the weather is too, because GFS progs us with very little rain before landfall (I think way underdone). But it does put is in the foot or so of rainfall as it's passing through.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1100&fh=78

[Wx_Warrior]

0z GFS

[Steve]

Looks to be a hair south of Jackson at 90 hours, so it's moving slowly north at maybe 05 degrees so essentially north for that period.

Legacy GFS is slightly east and faster out.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1100&fh=96

CMC is running now and hurricanes ought to be soon.