ATL: HUMBERTO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[DioBrando]

and i oop



40 knots of shear in the gulf and the shear tendency map has it increasing

[StormPyrate]

Lets hear it for Sheer, please dont let up.
Where do you see the sheer forecast models?

[DioBrando]

Lets hear it for Sheer, please dont let up.
Where do you see the sheer forecast models?

Here you go!
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic.php
I'm glad the shear is forecast to increase.

[GCANE]

Big blowup east of Aric's swirl.

Tons of helicity and lightning.
Could be where it spins up if it keeps going for a few more hours.

[GCANE]

Big blowup east of Aric's swirl.

Tons of helicity and lightning.
Could be where it spins up if it keeps going for a few more hours.

Massive lightning now.
Strong cirrus outflow with small gravity waves.

[tpr1967]

850 mb Vorticity seems to be increasing last 3 hours.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... m=&time=-1


http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

[CyclonicFury]

I wouldn't pay too much attention to the University of Wisconsin shear maps in this case - this system is an example of a favorable TUTT interaction. However once it develops if it does, shear may not decrease enough for significant deepening. We'll likely see a sheared TS in the Gulf, something similar to Gordon last year seems likely.

[SoupBone]

So what's keeping this one from Texas, the Death Ridge?

[DioBrando]

I wouldn't pay too much attention to the University of Wisconsin shear maps in this case - this system is an example of a favorable TUTT interaction. However once it develops if it does, shear may not decrease enough for significant deepening. We'll likely see a sheared TS in the Gulf, something similar to Gordon last year seems likely.

Thing is, 30-40 knots of shear extend through the entire path... I just can't see this being named. Honestly.

[ronjon]

I wouldn't pay too much attention to the University of Wisconsin shear maps in this case - this system is an example of a favorable TUTT interaction. However once it develops if it does, shear may not decrease enough for significant deepening. We'll likely see a sheared TS in the Gulf, something similar to Gordon last year seems likely.

Thing is, 30-40 knots of shear extend through the entire path... I just can't see this being named. Honestly.

I agree that shear will keep it in check for the next few days - but what is forecasted shear in the FL straits and eastern GOM days 3-5? Most of the global models keep it weak and broad low pressure until reaching the northern Gulf Coast in 4-5 days.

[Ubuntwo]

I wouldn't pay too much attention to the University of Wisconsin shear maps in this case - this system is an example of a favorable TUTT interaction. However once it develops if it does, shear may not decrease enough for significant deepening. We'll likely see a sheared TS in the Gulf, something similar to Gordon last year seems likely.

Thing is, 30-40 knots of shear extend through the entire path... I just can't see this being named. Honestly.

Again, shear is not static. That 40kts of shear won’t be there once it moves through the area.

[HurricaneAndre2008]

I'm thinking code red at the 5 day next outlook.

[DioBrando]

I wouldn't pay too much attention to the University of Wisconsin shear maps in this case - this system is an example of a favorable TUTT interaction. However once it develops if it does, shear may not decrease enough for significant deepening. We'll likely see a sheared TS in the Gulf, something similar to Gordon last year seems likely.

Thing is, 30-40 knots of shear extend through the entire path... I just can't see this being named. Honestly.

Again, shear is not static. That 40kts of shear won’t be there once it moves through the area.

Proof?

[DioBrando]

I wouldn't pay too much attention to the University of Wisconsin shear maps in this case - this system is an example of a favorable TUTT interaction. However once it develops if it does, shear may not decrease enough for significant deepening. We'll likely see a sheared TS in the Gulf, something similar to Gordon last year seems likely.

Thing is, 30-40 knots of shear extend through the entire path... I just can't see this being named. Honestly.

I agree that shear will keep it in check for the next few days - but what is forecasted shear in the FL straits and eastern GOM days 3-5? Most of the global models keep it weak and broad low pressure until reaching the northern Gulf Coast in 4-5 days.

Broad low pressure meaning what though? A NS?

[SoupBone]

I wouldn't pay too much attention to the University of Wisconsin shear maps in this case - this system is an example of a favorable TUTT interaction. However once it develops if it does, shear may not decrease enough for significant deepening. We'll likely see a sheared TS in the Gulf, something similar to Gordon last year seems likely.

Thing is, 30-40 knots of shear extend through the entire path... I just can't see this being named. Honestly.

Again, shear is not static. That 40kts of shear won’t be there once it moves through the area.

It's the one thing about shear that people tend to forget, including myself. What you see today, may not, and will likely not be what you see tomorrow.

[DioBrando]

Thing is, 30-40 knots of shear extend through the entire path... I just can't see this being named. Honestly.

Again, shear is not static. That 40kts of shear won’t be there once it moves through the area.

It's the one thing about shear that people tend to forget, including myself. What you see today, may not, and will likely not be what you see tomorrow.

I mean I did read off the map that shear tendency was increasing....

[Evil Jeremy]

Again, shear is not static. That 40kts of shear won’t be there once it moves through the area.

It's the one thing about shear that people tend to forget, including myself. What you see today, may not, and will likely not be what you see tomorrow.

I mean I did read off the map that shear tendency was increasing....

Increasing shear today does not mean increasing shear in 3 days.

[Steve]

Lets hear it for Sheer, please dont let up.
Where do you see the sheer forecast models?

Favoring stockings or the entire outfit?

[SoupBone]

Again, shear is not static. That 40kts of shear won’t be there once it moves through the area.

It's the one thing about shear that people tend to forget, including myself. What you see today, may not, and will likely not be what you see tomorrow.

I mean I did read off the map that shear tendency was increasing....

I definitely understand. But shear is a fickle thing, and hopefully it does increase and keep this system in check. The ebb and flow of shear.

[ronjon]

Thing is, 30-40 knots of shear extend through the entire path... I just can't see this being named. Honestly.

I agree that shear will keep it in check for the next few days - but what is forecasted shear in the FL straits and eastern GOM days 3-5? Most of the global models keep it weak and broad low pressure until reaching the northern Gulf Coast in 4-5 days.

Broad low pressure meaning what though? A NS?

Meaning it will take extra time to organize - think most models keep it relatively weak because of this and it eventually runs out of real estate along the northern gulf coast.