ATL: HUMBERTO - Post-Tropical - Discussion
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
and i oop
40 knots of shear in the gulf and the shear tendency map has it increasing
40 knots of shear in the gulf and the shear tendency map has it increasing
Last edited by DioBrando on Wed Sep 11, 2019 9:18 am, edited 1 time in total.
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blonde stacey (xe/xem/xir)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
Lets hear it for Sheer, please dont let up.
Where do you see the sheer forecast models?
Where do you see the sheer forecast models?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
StormPyrate wrote:Lets hear it for Sheer, please dont let up.
Where do you see the sheer forecast models?
Here you go!
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic.php
I'm glad the shear is forecast to increase.
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blonde stacey (xe/xem/xir)
Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
GCANE wrote:Big blowup east of Aric's swirl.
Tons of helicity and lightning.
Could be where it spins up if it keeps going for a few more hours.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
GCANE wrote:GCANE wrote:Big blowup east of Aric's swirl.
Tons of helicity and lightning.
Could be where it spins up if it keeps going for a few more hours.
Massive lightning now.
Strong cirrus outflow with small gravity waves.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
850 mb Vorticity seems to be increasing last 3 hours.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... m=&time=-1
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... m=&time=-1
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
I wouldn't pay too much attention to the University of Wisconsin shear maps in this case - this system is an example of a favorable TUTT interaction. However once it develops if it does, shear may not decrease enough for significant deepening. We'll likely see a sheared TS in the Gulf, something similar to Gordon last year seems likely.
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NCSU B.S. in Meteorology Class of 2021. Tropical weather blogger at http://www.cyclonicfury.com. My forecasts and thoughts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.
Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
So what's keeping this one from Texas, the Death Ridge?
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
CyclonicFury wrote:I wouldn't pay too much attention to the University of Wisconsin shear maps in this case - this system is an example of a favorable TUTT interaction. However once it develops if it does, shear may not decrease enough for significant deepening. We'll likely see a sheared TS in the Gulf, something similar to Gordon last year seems likely.
Thing is, 30-40 knots of shear extend through the entire path... I just can't see this being named. Honestly.
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blonde stacey (xe/xem/xir)
Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
DioBrando wrote:CyclonicFury wrote:I wouldn't pay too much attention to the University of Wisconsin shear maps in this case - this system is an example of a favorable TUTT interaction. However once it develops if it does, shear may not decrease enough for significant deepening. We'll likely see a sheared TS in the Gulf, something similar to Gordon last year seems likely.
Thing is, 30-40 knots of shear extend through the entire path... I just can't see this being named. Honestly.
I agree that shear will keep it in check for the next few days - but what is forecasted shear in the FL straits and eastern GOM days 3-5? Most of the global models keep it weak and broad low pressure until reaching the northern Gulf Coast in 4-5 days.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
DioBrando wrote:CyclonicFury wrote:I wouldn't pay too much attention to the University of Wisconsin shear maps in this case - this system is an example of a favorable TUTT interaction. However once it develops if it does, shear may not decrease enough for significant deepening. We'll likely see a sheared TS in the Gulf, something similar to Gordon last year seems likely.
Thing is, 30-40 knots of shear extend through the entire path... I just can't see this being named. Honestly.
Again, shear is not static. That 40kts of shear won’t be there once it moves through the area.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
I'm thinking code red at the 5 day next outlook.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
Ubuntwo wrote:DioBrando wrote:CyclonicFury wrote:I wouldn't pay too much attention to the University of Wisconsin shear maps in this case - this system is an example of a favorable TUTT interaction. However once it develops if it does, shear may not decrease enough for significant deepening. We'll likely see a sheared TS in the Gulf, something similar to Gordon last year seems likely.
Thing is, 30-40 knots of shear extend through the entire path... I just can't see this being named. Honestly.
Again, shear is not static. That 40kts of shear won’t be there once it moves through the area.
Proof?
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blonde stacey (xe/xem/xir)
Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
ronjon wrote:DioBrando wrote:CyclonicFury wrote:I wouldn't pay too much attention to the University of Wisconsin shear maps in this case - this system is an example of a favorable TUTT interaction. However once it develops if it does, shear may not decrease enough for significant deepening. We'll likely see a sheared TS in the Gulf, something similar to Gordon last year seems likely.
Thing is, 30-40 knots of shear extend through the entire path... I just can't see this being named. Honestly.
I agree that shear will keep it in check for the next few days - but what is forecasted shear in the FL straits and eastern GOM days 3-5? Most of the global models keep it weak and broad low pressure until reaching the northern Gulf Coast in 4-5 days.
Broad low pressure meaning what though? A NS?
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blonde stacey (xe/xem/xir)
Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
Ubuntwo wrote:DioBrando wrote:CyclonicFury wrote:I wouldn't pay too much attention to the University of Wisconsin shear maps in this case - this system is an example of a favorable TUTT interaction. However once it develops if it does, shear may not decrease enough for significant deepening. We'll likely see a sheared TS in the Gulf, something similar to Gordon last year seems likely.
Thing is, 30-40 knots of shear extend through the entire path... I just can't see this being named. Honestly.
Again, shear is not static. That 40kts of shear won’t be there once it moves through the area.
It's the one thing about shear that people tend to forget, including myself. What you see today, may not, and will likely not be what you see tomorrow.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
SoupBone wrote:Ubuntwo wrote:DioBrando wrote:Thing is, 30-40 knots of shear extend through the entire path... I just can't see this being named. Honestly.
Again, shear is not static. That 40kts of shear won’t be there once it moves through the area.
It's the one thing about shear that people tend to forget, including myself. What you see today, may not, and will likely not be what you see tomorrow.
I mean I did read off the map that shear tendency was increasing....
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blonde stacey (xe/xem/xir)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
DioBrando wrote:SoupBone wrote:Ubuntwo wrote:Again, shear is not static. That 40kts of shear won’t be there once it moves through the area.
It's the one thing about shear that people tend to forget, including myself. What you see today, may not, and will likely not be what you see tomorrow.
I mean I did read off the map that shear tendency was increasing....
Increasing shear today does not mean increasing shear in 3 days.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
StormPyrate wrote:Lets hear it for Sheer, please dont let up.
Where do you see the sheer forecast models?
Favoring stockings or the entire outfit?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
DioBrando wrote:SoupBone wrote:Ubuntwo wrote:Again, shear is not static. That 40kts of shear won’t be there once it moves through the area.
It's the one thing about shear that people tend to forget, including myself. What you see today, may not, and will likely not be what you see tomorrow.
I mean I did read off the map that shear tendency was increasing....
I definitely understand. But shear is a fickle thing, and hopefully it does increase and keep this system in check. The ebb and flow of shear.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
DioBrando wrote:ronjon wrote:DioBrando wrote:Thing is, 30-40 knots of shear extend through the entire path... I just can't see this being named. Honestly.
I agree that shear will keep it in check for the next few days - but what is forecasted shear in the FL straits and eastern GOM days 3-5? Most of the global models keep it weak and broad low pressure until reaching the northern Gulf Coast in 4-5 days.
Broad low pressure meaning what though? A NS?
Meaning it will take extra time to organize - think most models keep it relatively weak because of this and it eventually runs out of real estate along the northern gulf coast.
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