ATL: ETA - Models

[gatorcane]

18Z ICON is 16mb stronger and more SW than 12Z by hour 102 in the Bahamas. Basically has a hurricane.

Edit: landfalls near Palm Beach at 979mb at 120 hours

[StAuggy]

I’m still going out on a limb and saying NE Florida—>South Carolina for a landfall point. I feel like I’m seeing more runs with east coast hook backs and they keep ending further up to the north... regardless of the model I’m not playing favorites here just noticing the outlier trends

[AutoPenalti]

18Z ICON is 16mb stronger and more SW than 12Z by hour 102 in the Bahamas. Basically has a hurricane.

Edit: landfalls near Palm Beach at 979mb at 120 hours

https://i.postimg.cc/gJvj59VB/icon-mslp-wind-watl-fh0-114.gif

Low end Cat 1 honestly.

[ronjon]

12z Euro sticking to its track and gets ETA down to 970 mb in the GOM.

[TheStormExpert]

Haven’t been here for a while. Let me guess. Louisiana.

Surprisingly no. Though the 12z Euro has it just SE of it this time next week.

[Blown Away]

18Z ICON is 16mb stronger and more SW than 12Z by hour 102 in the Bahamas. Basically has a hurricane.

Edit: landfalls near Palm Beach at 979mb at 120 hours

https://i.postimg.cc/gJvj59VB/icon-mslp-wind-watl-fh0-114.gif

Low end Cat 1 honestly.

[AutoPenalti]

18Z ICON is 16mb stronger and more SW than 12Z by hour 102 in the Bahamas. Basically has a hurricane.

Edit: landfalls near Palm Beach at 979mb at 120 hours

https://i.postimg.cc/gJvj59VB/icon-mslp-wind-watl-fh0-114.gif

Low end Cat 1 honestly.

https://i.imgur.com/FO3Qs5u.jpg

Pressures sometimes don't correlate with wind speeds.

[Blown Away]

Low end Cat 1 honestly.

https://i.imgur.com/FO3Qs5u.jpg

Pressures sometimes don't correlate with wind speeds.

Agree, but this scale gives a good baseline.

[SFLcane]

18Z ICON is 16mb stronger and more SW than 12Z by hour 102 in the Bahamas. Basically has a hurricane.

Edit: landfalls near Palm Beach at 979mb at 120 hours

https://i.postimg.cc/gJvj59VB/icon-mslp-wind-watl-fh0-114.gif

[TheProfessor]

18Z ICON is 16mb stronger and more SW than 12Z by hour 102 in the Bahamas. Basically has a hurricane.

Edit: landfalls near Palm Beach at 979mb at 120 hours

https://i.postimg.cc/gJvj59VB/icon-mslp-wind-watl-fh0-114.gif

Low end Cat 1 honestly.

https://i.imgur.com/FO3Qs5u.jpg

There's a reason why pressure is no longer on the the Saffir Simpson scale. Although a 979mb storm the size of what the ICON shows would likely result in a strong Cat-1 weak Cat-2, due to the extensive land interaction and interaction with a trough the storm is likely going to end up on the larger side so a weak to midgrade Cat-1 is possible with that pressure in that scenario. The ICON is likely way too small with the storm.

[chaser1]

Low end Cat 1 honestly.

https://i.imgur.com/FO3Qs5u.jpg

Pressures sometimes don't correlate with wind speeds.

Good point.....that perspective could then be applied to suggest a possible "low end" Cat 3 then. I think it's quite premature to say, especially given that we're yet to determine if this will be subtropical or fully tropical.

[AutoPenalti]

https://i.imgur.com/FO3Qs5u.jpg

Pressures sometimes don't correlate with wind speeds.

Good point.....that perspective could then be applied to suggest a possible "low end" Cat 3 then. I think it's quite premature to say, especially given that we're yet to determine if this will be subtropical or fully tropical.

Which is why sometimes the GFS and Euro shouldn’t be used as intensity forecasts considering its low grid resolution. I’m glad the HWRF has been excelling this year, it seriously impressed when needed.

[SFLcane]

Wow gfs 979mb really? SFL on dirty side

[aspen]

18z Happy Hour gets this trapped in the Florida Straits and makes landfall in SFL/the Keys as a Cat1.

[SFLcane]

Today’s trends are interesting SFL might have to prepare for a minimal hurricane.

[Steve H.]

Also note that if this is a more hybrid system, the winfield will probably be more extensive.

[Iceresistance]

GFS reaggressive with Eta, powerful & extemely dangerous hurricane that is meandering all around the Caribbean

[Blown Away]

18z GFS "Happy Hour" didn't disappoint... Wow, one crazy ride from Honduras to Florida Keys then all the way to Veracruz Mexico...

[toad strangler]

18z GEFS

This could be legit trouble for any terra firma near where it decides to meander around

[toad strangler]

And then it looks like the 18z GEFS went drinking with the OP tonight as most are stumbling west with it in the longer range