ATL: ETA - Models

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS coming in a bit stronger and more consolidated through 36 hours.

[gatorcane]

Ut oh GFS much stronger

[Cat5James]

Ut oh GFS much stronger

Ridge overhead doesnt look to extend quite as far South either... might make it further NE before turning this run

[TheStormExpert]

Ut oh GFS much stronger

Uh Happy Hour GFS what are you doing!?

[DESTRUCTION5]

Wow happy Hr GFS hating SFL

[AutoPenalti]

Rainfall would be off shore now.

[gatorcane]

Saved GFS loop, is that a true warm core CAT 1?

[AutoPenalti]

Here's the trend from the past 6 runs starting with today's 18z, because why not.

[Blown Away]

If 18z GFS is right that could be a strong Cat 1 with Cat 2 gusts combined with strong pressure gradient in SFL in 3 days.

[gatorcane]

this could create some havoc here if it verifies

[TheStormExpert]

HOPEFULLY it's just another fluke run like the 00z run overnight, but this is 72hrs. out and worth taking into consideration.

[TheStormExpert]

:eek: this could create some havoc here if it verifies

https://i.postimg.cc/TwB4jJvG/gfs-mslp-wind-seus-fh54-84.gif

Happy Hour GFS is like I didn't forgot you Floridians!

[Cat5James]

18Z GFS and 12Z HWRF are almost duplicate runs including pressure

[SFLcane]

Interesting guys!

[jlauderdal]

:eek: this could create some havoc here if it verifies

https://i.postimg.cc/TwB4jJvG/gfs-mslp-wind-seus-fh54-84.gif

Big time havoc, NHC is farther south and they are so good with track at this range we have to follow the line..that tsaid, even on their track the moisture feed into SE Florida is going to be impressive...we had an inch today and the road had standing water, it usually takes 2-3 inches to flood it

[SFLcane]

Here's the trend from the past 6 runs starting with today's 18z, because why not.

https://i.imgur.com/HwgRccq.gif

Why this is quite interesting trend today!

[Blown Away]

:eek: this could create some havoc here if it verifies

https://i.postimg.cc/TwB4jJvG/gfs-mslp-wind-seus-fh54-84.gif

Big time havoc, NHC is farther south and they are so good with track at this range we have to follow the line..that tsaid, even on their track the moisture feed into SE Florida is going to be impressive...we had an inch today and the road had standing water, it usually takes 2-3 inches to flood it

It’s forward speed, 18z GFS very fast, and on the R and Euro on the L, so somewhere in the middle is probably correct, which is shown by the updated 18z TVCN.

[Patrick99]

The old reincarnation-of-1950-King track. Not exactly, of course, but similar, with the slight hook into SFL. Always wondered if I'd ever get to see a track like that. *If* it did that......I kinda have a hard time believing it *wouldn't* be a hurricane.

[StPeteMike]

The models have sucked at forecasting the strength of storms in the NW Caribbean. Considerably underestimating the explosion in intensity with multiple storms. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a Cat 1 or even a Cat 2 before going through Cuba, just depends how long ETA takes to get itself together.

[Blown Away]

The old reincarnation-of-1950-King track. Not exactly, of course, but similar, with the slight hook into SFL. Always wondered if I'd ever get to see a track like that. *If* it did that......I kinda have a hard time believing it *wouldn't* be a hurricane.

Yeah, King is almost perfect analog. The 18z GFS has been smoothing out the herky jerky changes in the direction. 18z GFS almost identical to King’s track. If that LLC forms a bit farther ENE than the models show I think we will see a track closer to SFL. Pretty clear NHC going all in with Euro over GFS.