ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
hurricaneCW
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1794
Joined: Wed Mar 03, 2010 6:20 am
Location: Toms River, NJ

Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1321 Postby hurricaneCW » Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:10 pm

wxman57 wrote:NHC's 115kt estimate looks reasonable. Low-end Cat 4.


Mmm seems conservative honestly given T#s

I'd go with 125-130kt
0 likes   
Top
Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:
Contact Aric Dunn

Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1322 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:10 pm

Blown Away wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:How strong is Eta now? If I were to make an estimate, I would go with 130 kt. Solid T6.5 when accounting for the fact that Dvorak does pinholes poorly.

https://i.imgur.com/XUzvYlE.jpg

I bet your right, Eta is amazing, but not perfect based on satellite only to justify above that. My amateur opinion only.


That is the problem.. not every cat 5 is perfect.. they do not always fit the expected "look"

Image
14 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Top
User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9288
Age: 21
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1323 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:11 pm

Chemmers wrote:Could it get to 8 maybe?

A T8 will be 190+ mph wind estimate.
2 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Top
User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9288
Age: 21
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1324 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:12 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
Blown Away wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:How strong is Eta now? If I were to make an estimate, I would go with 130 kt. Solid T6.5 when accounting for the fact that Dvorak does pinholes poorly.

https://i.imgur.com/XUzvYlE.jpg

I bet your right, Eta is amazing, but not perfect based on satellite only to justify above that. My amateur opinion only.


That is the problem.. not every cat 5 is perfect.. they do not always fit the expected "look"

https://i.ibb.co/pdWmjBM/LABELS-19700101-000000-10.gif

This looks like a Dvorak rating of a T7.7
0 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Top
User avatar
ElectricStorm
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5049
Age: 24
Joined: Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:23 pm
Location: Skiatook, OK / Norman, OK

Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1325 Postby ElectricStorm » Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:12 pm

Chemmers wrote:Could it get to 8 maybe?

I don't think it has enough time
0 likes   
B.S Meteorology, University of Oklahoma '25

Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.
Top
User avatar
Cunxi Huang
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 329
Age: 27
Joined: Thu Sep 26, 2013 12:17 pm
Location: San Jose, CA
Contact:
Contact Cunxi Huang

Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1326 Postby Cunxi Huang » Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:13 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
Weather Dude wrote:
SteveM wrote:
What does 7.5 mean, please?

It's the Dvorak T number estimate. T7.5 is a very powerful Cat 5

This might reach 7.7, there is a very solid pink ring on Eta.

EDIT: Well, I can't get the GIF on the pink ring of Eta to work. :roll:

Well you can't get 7.7 if the eye can't clear up to WMG at least.
1 likes   
06 SuTY SAOMAI | 09 TY LINFA | 10 TY FANAPI | 10 SuTY MEGI | 16 SuTY MERANTI | 19 SuTY LEKIMA | 24 C2 FRANCINE
DO NOT use my posts for life and death decisions. For official information, please refer to products from your RSMC and national weather agency.
Top
User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9288
Age: 21
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1327 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:14 pm

Weather Dude wrote:
Chemmers wrote:Could it get to 8 maybe?

I don't think it has enough time

Unless it stalls & moves north, there is a cold front in the Gulf of Mexico right now.
0 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Top
User avatar
Blown Away
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10148
Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am

Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1328 Postby Blown Away » Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:14 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
Blown Away wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:How strong is Eta now? If I were to make an estimate, I would go with 130 kt. Solid T6.5 when accounting for the fact that Dvorak does pinholes poorly.

https://i.imgur.com/XUzvYlE.jpg

I bet your right, Eta is amazing, but not perfect based on satellite only to justify above that. My amateur opinion only.


That is the problem.. not every cat 5 is perfect.. they do not always fit the expected "look"

https://i.ibb.co/pdWmjBM/LABELS-19700101-000000-10.gif


I wouldn't bet against currently a Cat 5, but clear that eye out before it gets into that special group IMO. Ugh, no recon.
2 likes   
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05... EYE COMING MY WAY IN 2024…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
Top
Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:
Contact Aric Dunn

Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1329 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:15 pm

Neither are perfect. small eyes often never completely clear out.

Wilma

Image

Eta
Image
11 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Top
User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9288
Age: 21
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1330 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:15 pm

Cunxi Huang wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:
Weather Dude wrote:It's the Dvorak T number estimate. T7.5 is a very powerful Cat 5

This might reach 7.7, there is a very solid pink ring on Eta.

EDIT: Well, I can't get the GIF on the pink ring of Eta to work. :roll:

Well you can't get 7.7 if the eye can't clear up to WMG at least.

What is WMG? And I do think the max Dvorak T number is up to a 7.2.
0 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Top
RL3AO
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 16308
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2007 10:03 pm
Location: NC

Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1331 Postby RL3AO » Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:16 pm

Even a conservative estimate of CMG with a LG eye gets you 6.5. Of course the intensification constraints will probably keep the objective measurements down for most of the evening. If they don't get recon, they'll have to go off of raw numbers and human analysis.
2 likes   
Top
User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9288
Age: 21
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1332 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:17 pm


Wilma's eye was more pronouced than Eta's.
1 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Top
supercane4867
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4966
Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am

Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1333 Postby supercane4867 » Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:17 pm

New SSMIS pass. No ERC

Image
0 likes   
Top
CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 34002
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1334 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:17 pm

I would think if we get a T7.0 analysis by advisory time, there would be a Special Advisory as that would require significantly increasing the official forecast.
1 likes   
Top
NotoSans
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1380
Age: 25
Joined: Sun Sep 27, 2015 1:15 am
Location: Toronto
Contact:
Contact NotoSans

Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1335 Postby NotoSans » Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:18 pm



Wilma’s eye is completely cleared out. High-resolution MODIS imagery captures eye temperature of above 20C.

GOES-12 IR band only has 4km resolution, compared to GOES-16 2km. That could make a significant difference already. Not to mention Wilma’s eye is smaller than Eta’s making satellite capturing eye temperature more difficult.
Last edited by NotoSans on Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
2 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC and NWS products.
Top
supercane4867
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4966
Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am

Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1336 Postby supercane4867 » Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:18 pm


Wilma's eye temp was over 20C on high-res MODIS data. Eta is not quite there yet by any measure.
0 likes   
Top
Steve H.
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2147
Joined: Sat Oct 19, 2002 9:06 am
Location: Palm Bay, Florida

Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1337 Postby Steve H. » Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:19 pm

It appears that eta has nearly crawled to a stop right now. Or it has slowed considerably.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9288
Age: 21
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1338 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:19 pm

The latest frames are showing a near perfect structure on Eta right now
0 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Top
User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15987
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1339 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:20 pm

Eye IMO is borderline positive. I think another Dvorak limiting factor other than the slightly negative eye is the CDO thickness criteria.
Last edited by Kingarabian on Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant
Top
RL3AO
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 16308
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2007 10:03 pm
Location: NC

Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1340 Postby RL3AO » Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:20 pm

ADT up to a raw 6.4 with the CI limited by constraints. This is easily a raw 6.5 now. But it's hard to tell whether intensification is continuing or not.
2 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2020”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests