ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1321 Postby hurricaneCW » Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:10 pm

wxman57 wrote:NHC's 115kt estimate looks reasonable. Low-end Cat 4.


Mmm seems conservative honestly given T#s

I'd go with 125-130kt
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1322 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:10 pm

Blown Away wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:How strong is Eta now? If I were to make an estimate, I would go with 130 kt. Solid T6.5 when accounting for the fact that Dvorak does pinholes poorly.

https://i.imgur.com/XUzvYlE.jpg

I bet your right, Eta is amazing, but not perfect based on satellite only to justify above that. My amateur opinion only.


That is the problem.. not every cat 5 is perfect.. they do not always fit the expected "look"

Image
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1323 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:11 pm

Chemmers wrote:Could it get to 8 maybe?

A T8 will be 190+ mph wind estimate.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1324 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:12 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
Blown Away wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:How strong is Eta now? If I were to make an estimate, I would go with 130 kt. Solid T6.5 when accounting for the fact that Dvorak does pinholes poorly.

https://i.imgur.com/XUzvYlE.jpg

I bet your right, Eta is amazing, but not perfect based on satellite only to justify above that. My amateur opinion only.


That is the problem.. not every cat 5 is perfect.. they do not always fit the expected "look"

https://i.ibb.co/pdWmjBM/LABELS-19700101-000000-10.gif

This looks like a Dvorak rating of a T7.7
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1325 Postby ElectricStorm » Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:12 pm

Chemmers wrote:Could it get to 8 maybe?

I don't think it has enough time
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1326 Postby Cunxi Huang » Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:13 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
Weather Dude wrote:
SteveM wrote:
What does 7.5 mean, please?

It's the Dvorak T number estimate. T7.5 is a very powerful Cat 5

This might reach 7.7, there is a very solid pink ring on Eta.

EDIT: Well, I can't get the GIF on the pink ring of Eta to work. :roll:

Well you can't get 7.7 if the eye can't clear up to WMG at least.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1327 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:14 pm

Weather Dude wrote:
Chemmers wrote:Could it get to 8 maybe?

I don't think it has enough time

Unless it stalls & moves north, there is a cold front in the Gulf of Mexico right now.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1328 Postby Blown Away » Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:14 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
Blown Away wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:How strong is Eta now? If I were to make an estimate, I would go with 130 kt. Solid T6.5 when accounting for the fact that Dvorak does pinholes poorly.

https://i.imgur.com/XUzvYlE.jpg

I bet your right, Eta is amazing, but not perfect based on satellite only to justify above that. My amateur opinion only.


That is the problem.. not every cat 5 is perfect.. they do not always fit the expected "look"

https://i.ibb.co/pdWmjBM/LABELS-19700101-000000-10.gif


I wouldn't bet against currently a Cat 5, but clear that eye out before it gets into that special group IMO. Ugh, no recon.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1329 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:15 pm

Neither are perfect. small eyes often never completely clear out.

Wilma

Image

Eta
Image
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1330 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:15 pm

Cunxi Huang wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:
Weather Dude wrote:It's the Dvorak T number estimate. T7.5 is a very powerful Cat 5

This might reach 7.7, there is a very solid pink ring on Eta.

EDIT: Well, I can't get the GIF on the pink ring of Eta to work. :roll:

Well you can't get 7.7 if the eye can't clear up to WMG at least.

What is WMG? And I do think the max Dvorak T number is up to a 7.2.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1331 Postby RL3AO » Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:16 pm

Even a conservative estimate of CMG with a LG eye gets you 6.5. Of course the intensification constraints will probably keep the objective measurements down for most of the evening. If they don't get recon, they'll have to go off of raw numbers and human analysis.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1332 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:17 pm


Wilma's eye was more pronouced than Eta's.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1333 Postby supercane4867 » Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:17 pm

New SSMIS pass. No ERC

Image
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1334 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:17 pm

I would think if we get a T7.0 analysis by advisory time, there would be a Special Advisory as that would require significantly increasing the official forecast.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1335 Postby NotoSans » Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:18 pm



Wilma’s eye is completely cleared out. High-resolution MODIS imagery captures eye temperature of above 20C.

GOES-12 IR band only has 4km resolution, compared to GOES-16 2km. That could make a significant difference already. Not to mention Wilma’s eye is smaller than Eta’s making satellite capturing eye temperature more difficult.
Last edited by NotoSans on Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1336 Postby supercane4867 » Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:18 pm


Wilma's eye temp was over 20C on high-res MODIS data. Eta is not quite there yet by any measure.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1337 Postby Steve H. » Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:19 pm

It appears that eta has nearly crawled to a stop right now. Or it has slowed considerably.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1338 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:19 pm

The latest frames are showing a near perfect structure on Eta right now
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1339 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:20 pm

Eye IMO is borderline positive. I think another Dvorak limiting factor other than the slightly negative eye is the CDO thickness criteria.
Last edited by Kingarabian on Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1340 Postby RL3AO » Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:20 pm

ADT up to a raw 6.4 with the CI limited by constraints. This is easily a raw 6.5 now. But it's hard to tell whether intensification is continuing or not.
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