ATL: LAURA - Models

[Steve]

00Z Icon and Canadian https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200821/42a2686ea941676e50e662d8398b59fe.jpg https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200821/2f4f167591dc50b5b7283143ffb0b14e.jpg

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Any sound reasoning why the ICON would favor 13 over 14?

Land interaction. So far it's GFS vs. ICON, CMC (prior runs of other models).

[Janie2006]

I don’t get too caught up in the models at this stage of the game, I’m just watching for trends at the moment. A landfall at Dauphin Island or (more likely right now) Pensacola or Destin seems like a good bet, but we’re all just getting caught up in it like we always do.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I believe I saw it mentioned on Twitter that the 00z hurricane models would be the ones with actual recon data in them, so this HWRF run will be one to pay attention to.

[AtlanticWind]

HWRF stronger and a little further north

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2100&fh=48

[AutoPenalti]

HWRF 00z (21st) vs 18z (20th)





Stronger and further south.

[Steve]

I believe I saw it mentioned on Twitter that the 00z hurricane models would be the ones with actual recon data in them, so this HWRF run will be one to pay attention to.

It's slightly north of Hispaniola whereas the HMON crosses it directly over the island and Puerto Rico having it scrambled after that. HWRF looks stronger. Both hurricane models are fairly strong with TD #14 coming off the Yucatan (HWRF = 982 at about 22.5N and HMON = 980mb around 25.3N.

Who knows. It's going to be fun to watch though to see if these runs end up with a stronger 14 or 13 and which side the hurricane models will line up on as far as which system they think is going to be stronger.

[StPeteMike]

HWRF stronger and a little further north

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2100&fh=48

Unfortunately the models have been increasing intensity approaching SFL during the past day, excluding the GFS and EURO, though I’ll expect one of them to buck their trend and align with the majority of the models into Friday. That said, I still wouldn’t rule out a major through the straits or SFL.

[Keldeo1997]

Well it looks like the Recon data made the HWRF even more bullish. 140 MPH CAT 4 landfall in Key West moving NW into the gulf

[ColdMiser123]

Euro a good bit stronger through hour 24.

[Steve]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 100&fh=102

Bad news for even more people if HWRF verifies. We'll have back to back hits with a Cat 2 in Louisiana and who knows what we're going to get out of TD #13? HWRF hits the FL Straits and then is heading NW up toward the North Central Gulf in the 940's. Again, that's legit > 100mph sustained. FL? AL? MS? LA x 2? There are still plots outstanding for another 24 hours, so maybe it will indicate what it's going to do in the next 10-15 minutes so I can go to bed.

[WxEp]

Euro a good bit stronger through hour 24.

Appears to be stronger at that point than it has been since the Aug 18 00z run (not that that is saying much).

Between H24 and H48 it weakens but it's still relatively stronger than recent previous runs for what it's worth.

[Steve]

HWRF with 6 hours to go has people in AL and MS staring at a 942 beast cane. 2 more plots to go.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 13L_40.png

[Shell Mound]

HWRF shows a rapidly intensifying Category-4+ TC moving WNW through the Keys and/or South FL. This run strikes Key West head on.

[Steve]

Final plot. Trajectory is toward Jackson County, Mississippi at 938. We're getting into very strong Cat 3 levels there and possibly close to Cat 4. Since HWRF is the only model so far (EC pending and I'm not staying up) that intensifies both systems at these levels, I'm inclined to believe it less. GFS, HMON like 14; ICON, CMC like 13; HWRF likes them both but particularly 13. See y'all tomorrow.

[Keldeo1997]

Last frame of HWRF has a strengthening CAT 4 heading for Mobile Bay

[Steve]

^^ I got it going past there toward Pascagoula or maybe Ocean Springs. But not talking much difference there.

[Shell Mound]

Last frame of HWRF has a strengthening CAT 4 heading for Mobile Bay

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2020082100/hwrf_mslp_wind_13L_43.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2020082100/hwrf_satIR_13L_22.png

Trajectory and intensity is like a stronger blend of Frederic (1979) and Georges (1998).

[ColdMiser123]

Euro a good bit stronger through hour 24.

Appears to be stronger at that point than it has been since the Aug 18 00z run (not that that is saying much).

Between H24 and H48 it weakens but it's still relatively stronger than recent previous runs for what it's worth.

These are some pretty significant changes still in the short-term on the Euro.

This ultimately may have more significant forecast implications down the road if this continues to take place with future runs.

[Blinhart]

Looks like my area will be trying to dodge 2 separate bullets within 72-96 hours of each other, hoping neither get too strong and miss this area. Not wishing a strong system to hit anyone or for 2 systems to hit the same area at all. But the way 2020 is going there is a small chance the same place might get hit by 2 majors within one week, that would be devastating.

[Shell Mound]

Euro a good bit stronger through hour 24.

Appears to be stronger at that point than it has been since the Aug 18 00z run (not that that is saying much).

Between H24 and H48 it weakens but it's still relatively stronger than recent previous runs for what it's worth.

These are some pretty significant changes still in the short-term on the Euro.

This ultimately may have more significant forecast implications down the road if this continues to take place with future runs.

https://i.imgur.com/AQykUgX.gif

So far models have distinctly trended toward a stronger and more westerly trajectory with both TD Thirteen and TD Fourteen.

If Fourteen is farther W in the GoM while Thirteen nears S FL, then there may be sufficient “space” to support two strong ‘canes.

The big takeaway is that the ridge has continued to become stronger with each passing run, so stronger systems still head W(NW).

Personally, I don’t think the latest HWRF solutions are so implausible as far as intensity goes (I side with the EPS for 500-mb setup).