System stays in the water and moves north skirting the west Yucatan coast.
Pretty much heading for the MS delta.
Interestingly, CMC had this a couple days ago and hasn't waivered.
Here's GFS
![Image](https://i.imgur.com/6zWf8Eh.png)
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GCANE wrote:Strong consistency in all the 00Z globals this morning.
System stays in the water and moves north skirting the west Yucatan coast.
Pretty much heading for the MS delta.
Interestingly, CMC had this a couple days ago and hasn't waivered.
Here's GFS
https://i.imgur.com/6zWf8Eh.png
tolakram wrote:As others have pointed out the 1 hour plots show the center just coming on shore as it loops around prior to heading north.
Euro 0Z run
https://i.imgur.com/1AneOHF.gif
Kingarabian wrote:GCANE wrote:Strong consistency in all the 00Z globals this morning.
System stays in the water and moves north skirting the west Yucatan coast.
Pretty much heading for the MS delta.
Interestingly, CMC had this a couple days ago and hasn't waivered.
Here's GFS
https://i.imgur.com/6zWf8Eh.png
CMC has progressively gotten better.
GFS continues with the two system solution. Loses it near CA, creates a new vort, and takes a messy system into middle LA.
However one thing has become clear from this GFS run. We're in for a long season with it.
aspen wrote:The 06z HWRF keeps TD3 over land for almost 48 hours before it moves north, resulting in a much weaker and more disorganized system in the Gulf. This is somewhat similar to the GFS run, expect with one continuous system and not two. The Euro, CMC, NAVGEM, and ICON either show it just touching the coast or not making landfall in Mexico at all during its stall before being drawn up north.
stormlover2013 wrote:aspen wrote:The 06z HWRF keeps TD3 over land for almost 48 hours before it moves north, resulting in a much weaker and more disorganized system in the Gulf. This is somewhat similar to the GFS run, expect with one continuous system and not two. The Euro, CMC, NAVGEM, and ICON either show it just touching the coast or not making landfall in Mexico at all during its stall before being drawn up north.
Prob cat 1 by landfall on that run
Dean4Storms wrote:GCANE wrote:Strong consistency in all the 00Z globals this morning.
System stays in the water and moves north skirting the west Yucatan coast.
Pretty much heading for the MS delta.
Interestingly, CMC had this a couple days ago and hasn't waivered.
Here's GFS
No, not all global models, the UKMET and its ensembles are headed toward the FL Panhandle which is a head scratcher.
Aric Dunn wrote:Dean4Storms wrote:GCANE wrote:Strong consistency in all the 00Z globals this morning.
System stays in the water and moves north skirting the west Yucatan coast.
Pretty much heading for the MS delta.
Interestingly, CMC had this a couple days ago and hasn't waivered.
Here's GFS
No, not all global models, the UKMET and its ensembles are headed toward the FL Panhandle which is a head scratcher.
UKMEt looks like it initially gets caught up with the shear and has a lopsided system that is tugged NE then conditions improve but it is already to far east and north and gets caught by the first exiting trough.
SoupBone wrote:Aric Dunn wrote:Dean4Storms wrote:
UKMEt looks like it initially gets caught up with the shear and has a lopsided system that is tugged NE then conditions improve but it is already to far east and north and gets caught by the first exiting trough.
A man of a million questions, but what's the timing of that first trough moving out? It seems that this would also be a key player and something the models would latch onto.
SoupBone wrote:Just getting around to catching up on models but the 6Z GFS jumped a bit more east this run, putting landfall near Lafayette on Monday.
stormlover2013 wrote:SoupBone wrote:Just getting around to catching up on models but the 6Z GFS jumped a bit more east this run, putting landfall near Lafayette on Monday.
Gfs is lost and has been for the past week
Nederlander wrote:stormlover2013 wrote:SoupBone wrote:Just getting around to catching up on models but the 6Z GFS jumped a bit more east this run, putting landfall near Lafayette on Monday.
Gfs is lost and has been for the past week
Yeah it also keeps burying TD3 all the way down to Guatemala with a second circulation forming on the Yucatán with the gyre effect that really no longer exists... The probs on this solution verifying are dying by the hour.
mcheer23 wrote:ICON model no longer takes a hard left turn. Makes landfall in Louisiana.
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