ATL: CRISTOBAL - Models
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Re: ATL: THREE - Models
Strong consistency in all the 00Z globals this morning.
System stays in the water and moves north skirting the west Yucatan coast.
Pretty much heading for the MS delta.
Interestingly, CMC had this a couple days ago and hasn't waivered.
Here's GFS
System stays in the water and moves north skirting the west Yucatan coast.
Pretty much heading for the MS delta.
Interestingly, CMC had this a couple days ago and hasn't waivered.
Here's GFS
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Re: ATL: THREE - Models
GCANE wrote:Strong consistency in all the 00Z globals this morning.
System stays in the water and moves north skirting the west Yucatan coast.
Pretty much heading for the MS delta.
Interestingly, CMC had this a couple days ago and hasn't waivered.
Here's GFS
https://i.imgur.com/6zWf8Eh.png
CMC has progressively gotten better.
GFS continues with the two system solution. Loses it near CA, creates a new vort, and takes a messy system into middle LA.
However one thing has become clear from this GFS run. We're in for a long season with it.
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Re: ATL: THREE - Models
As others have pointed out the 1 hour plots show the center just coming on shore as it loops around prior to heading north.
Euro 0Z run
Euro 0Z run
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Re: ATL: THREE - Models
tolakram wrote:As others have pointed out the 1 hour plots show the center just coming on shore as it loops around prior to heading north.
Euro 0Z run
https://i.imgur.com/1AneOHF.gif
This is the furthest the system comes on shore, at +37 hours.
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Re: ATL: THREE - Models
Kingarabian wrote:GCANE wrote:Strong consistency in all the 00Z globals this morning.
System stays in the water and moves north skirting the west Yucatan coast.
Pretty much heading for the MS delta.
Interestingly, CMC had this a couple days ago and hasn't waivered.
Here's GFS
https://i.imgur.com/6zWf8Eh.png
CMC has progressively gotten better.
GFS continues with the two system solution. Loses it near CA, creates a new vort, and takes a messy system into middle LA.
However one thing has become clear from this GFS run. We're in for a long season with it.
The crappy GFS little by little is trending towards dropping the two system solution during the past couple of runs.
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Re: ATL: THREE - Models
The 06z HWRF keeps TD3 over land for almost 48 hours before it moves north, resulting in a much weaker and more disorganized system in the Gulf. This is somewhat similar to the GFS run, expect with one continuous system and not two. The Euro, CMC, NAVGEM, and ICON either show it just touching the coast or not making landfall in Mexico at all during its stall before being drawn up north.
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Re: ATL: THREE - Models
aspen wrote:The 06z HWRF keeps TD3 over land for almost 48 hours before it moves north, resulting in a much weaker and more disorganized system in the Gulf. This is somewhat similar to the GFS run, expect with one continuous system and not two. The Euro, CMC, NAVGEM, and ICON either show it just touching the coast or not making landfall in Mexico at all during its stall before being drawn up north.
Prob cat 1 by landfall on that run
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Re: ATL: THREE - Models
stormlover2013 wrote:aspen wrote:The 06z HWRF keeps TD3 over land for almost 48 hours before it moves north, resulting in a much weaker and more disorganized system in the Gulf. This is somewhat similar to the GFS run, expect with one continuous system and not two. The Euro, CMC, NAVGEM, and ICON either show it just touching the coast or not making landfall in Mexico at all during its stall before being drawn up north.
Prob cat 1 by landfall on that run
Both the GFS and HWRF have it in the 980 mbar range at landfall, so yeah, looks like a minor hurricane, or a strong TS at the very least. Possibly not out of the question based on how it’s improving so far today.
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Re: ATL: THREE - Models
Even the Euro has been struggling with the system.
Forecasted point for 7 AM CDT this morning during the past 8 runs.
Forecasted point for 7 AM CDT this morning during the past 8 runs.
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Re: ATL: THREE - Models
[quote="GCANE"]Strong consistency in all the 00Z globals this morning.
System stays in the water and moves north skirting the west Yucatan coast.
Pretty much heading for the MS delta.
Interestingly, CMC had this a couple days ago and hasn't waivered.
Here's GFS
No, not all global models, the UKMET and its ensembles are headed toward the FL Panhandle which is a head scratcher.
System stays in the water and moves north skirting the west Yucatan coast.
Pretty much heading for the MS delta.
Interestingly, CMC had this a couple days ago and hasn't waivered.
Here's GFS
No, not all global models, the UKMET and its ensembles are headed toward the FL Panhandle which is a head scratcher.
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Re: ATL: THREE - Models
Dean4Storms wrote:GCANE wrote:Strong consistency in all the 00Z globals this morning.
System stays in the water and moves north skirting the west Yucatan coast.
Pretty much heading for the MS delta.
Interestingly, CMC had this a couple days ago and hasn't waivered.
Here's GFS
No, not all global models, the UKMET and its ensembles are headed toward the FL Panhandle which is a head scratcher.
UKMEt looks like it initially gets caught up with the shear and has a lopsided system that is tugged NE then conditions improve but it is already to far east and north and gets caught by the first exiting trough.
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Re: ATL: THREE - Models
Aric Dunn wrote:Dean4Storms wrote:GCANE wrote:Strong consistency in all the 00Z globals this morning.
System stays in the water and moves north skirting the west Yucatan coast.
Pretty much heading for the MS delta.
Interestingly, CMC had this a couple days ago and hasn't waivered.
Here's GFS
No, not all global models, the UKMET and its ensembles are headed toward the FL Panhandle which is a head scratcher.
UKMEt looks like it initially gets caught up with the shear and has a lopsided system that is tugged NE then conditions improve but it is already to far east and north and gets caught by the first exiting trough.
A man of a million questions, but what's the timing of that first trough moving out? It seems that this would also be a key player and something the models would latch onto.
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Re: ATL: THREE - Models
SoupBone wrote:Aric Dunn wrote:Dean4Storms wrote:
UKMEt looks like it initially gets caught up with the shear and has a lopsided system that is tugged NE then conditions improve but it is already to far east and north and gets caught by the first exiting trough.
A man of a million questions, but what's the timing of that first trough moving out? It seems that this would also be a key player and something the models would latch onto.
Look at the models for the timing. that is what everything is based off right now.
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Re: ATL: THREE - Models
Just getting around to catching up on models but the 6Z GFS jumped a bit more east this run, putting landfall near Lafayette on Monday.
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Re: ATL: THREE - Models
SoupBone wrote:Just getting around to catching up on models but the 6Z GFS jumped a bit more east this run, putting landfall near Lafayette on Monday.
Gfs is lost and has been for the past week
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Re: ATL: THREE - Models
stormlover2013 wrote:SoupBone wrote:Just getting around to catching up on models but the 6Z GFS jumped a bit more east this run, putting landfall near Lafayette on Monday.
Gfs is lost and has been for the past week
Yeah it also keeps burying TD3 all the way down to Guatemala with a second circulation forming on the Yucatán with the gyre effect that really no longer exists... The probs on this solution verifying are dying by the hour.
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Re: ATL: THREE - Models
Nederlander wrote:stormlover2013 wrote:SoupBone wrote:Just getting around to catching up on models but the 6Z GFS jumped a bit more east this run, putting landfall near Lafayette on Monday.
Gfs is lost and has been for the past week
Yeah it also keeps burying TD3 all the way down to Guatemala with a second circulation forming on the Yucatán with the gyre effect that really no longer exists... The probs on this solution verifying are dying by the hour.
True, but I still think the overall more eastern solutions aren't that far off, with a curve back toward the Texas coast.
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Re: ATL: THREE - Models
ICON model no longer takes a hard left turn. Makes landfall in Louisiana.
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Re: ATL: THREE - Models
mcheer23 wrote:ICON model no longer takes a hard left turn. Makes landfall in Louisiana.
Icon model, that’s prob worse than cmc with upper level pattern
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