ATL: ZETA - Models
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- MississippiWx
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Models
Ivanhater wrote:18zhttps://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20201025/5ee334cfd1daf7417f52d39ca7265038.jpg
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Official track now on the Eastern edge of guidance. I can’t get over these western shifts with Delta and now Zeta. Would have bet on eastern shifts.
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Models
Hmm . . . Whoda thunk we'd be seeing a landfalling storm the week of Halloween? Crazy!!!
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Models
I was hoping I wouldn't have to post for the rest of the season after Delta, but here I am typing in Zeta, seeing these West shifts are very concerning to me. Even if we just get TS strength winds here in the SW portion of Louisiana, with all the damage already done, who knows what would happen.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Models
18z GFS now wants Zeta to become a hurricane
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Models
BigB0882 wrote:Stormcenter wrote:HMON shifts way west
Where to? What strength?
Still makes landfall on the MS coast
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Models
It boggles my mind that now it's not trough's that are saving Florida, it's Ridges.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Models
Stormcenter wrote:HWRF shifts west too
Both the 18z HMON and HWRF shifted west somewhat out in the gulf but both their second landfalls was just a tad west on the 12z runs still on the MS coast. HWRF strengthens to 995 with the eye passing over Cat Is south of GPT, the HMON landfalls near BSL with what I would estimate the pressure in the 988 or 989 range..
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Models
18Z runs track in over eastern NOLA.
There is a trough digging south through California into the Baja that will likely cut off by Tuesday but Zeta would need to move pretty fast to get that far north in the gulf ahead of it.
Models are probably seeing something we don't that they are basing the shift west on.
Warnings might have to be shifted East at 48 hours but since NHC is already on the eastern side of the consensus I don't see much change in the forecast.
There is a trough digging south through California into the Baja that will likely cut off by Tuesday but Zeta would need to move pretty fast to get that far north in the gulf ahead of it.
Models are probably seeing something we don't that they are basing the shift west on.
Warnings might have to be shifted East at 48 hours but since NHC is already on the eastern side of the consensus I don't see much change in the forecast.
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Models
Frank P wrote:BigB0882 wrote:Stormcenter wrote:HMON shifts way west
Where to? What strength?
Still makes landfall on the MS coast
2nd landfall.
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Models
AutoPenalti wrote:It boggles my mind that now it's not trough's that are saving Florida, it's Ridges.
You should be happy, right?
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Models
3090 wrote:Frank P wrote:BigB0882 wrote:
Where to? What strength?
Still makes landfall on the MS coast
2nd landfall.
I say second landfall just a couple posts before this one... fwiw post 231
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Models
18z GFS Ensemble Mean shifted west by maybe 30 miles, about right over NOrleans.
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Models
OK, can we stop with the west shifts already?
Humanitarian concerns for SW LA aside, they make no sense to me since I thought Zeta was doing what it needed to do in the short term (stay more S) to go more E in the long term.
Humanitarian concerns for SW LA aside, they make no sense to me since I thought Zeta was doing what it needed to do in the short term (stay more S) to go more E in the long term.
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