ATL: ZETA - Models

[Ivanhater]

18z

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[MississippiWx]

18zhttps://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20201025/5ee334cfd1daf7417f52d39ca7265038.jpg

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Official track now on the Eastern edge of guidance. I can’t get over these western shifts with Delta and now Zeta. Would have bet on eastern shifts.

[LowerAlabamaTider]

Hmm . . . Whoda thunk we'd be seeing a landfalling storm the week of Halloween? Crazy!!!

[Blinhart]

I was hoping I wouldn't have to post for the rest of the season after Delta, but here I am typing in Zeta, seeing these West shifts are very concerning to me. Even if we just get TS strength winds here in the SW portion of Louisiana, with all the damage already done, who knows what would happen.

[Iceresistance]

18z GFS now wants Zeta to become a hurricane

[Stormcenter]

HMON shifts way west

[BigB0882]

HMON shifts way west

Where to? What strength?

[Frank P]

HMON shifts way west

Where to? What strength?

Still makes landfall on the MS coast

[Stormcenter]

HWRF shifts west too

[AutoPenalti]

It boggles my mind that now it's not trough's that are saving Florida, it's Ridges.

[Frank P]

HWRF shifts west too

Both the 18z HMON and HWRF shifted west somewhat out in the gulf but both their second landfalls was just a tad west on the 12z runs still on the MS coast. HWRF strengthens to 995 with the eye passing over Cat Is south of GPT, the HMON landfalls near BSL with what I would estimate the pressure in the 988 or 989 range..

[Nimbus]

18Z runs track in over eastern NOLA.
There is a trough digging south through California into the Baja that will likely cut off by Tuesday but Zeta would need to move pretty fast to get that far north in the gulf ahead of it.
Models are probably seeing something we don't that they are basing the shift west on.
Warnings might have to be shifted East at 48 hours but since NHC is already on the eastern side of the consensus I don't see much change in the forecast.

[3090]

HMON shifts way west

Where to? What strength?

Still makes landfall on the MS coast

2nd landfall.

[3090]

It boggles my mind that now it's not trough's that are saving Florida, it's Ridges.

You should be happy, right?

[Wx_Warrior]

Euro 18z shift east to Central La, fwiw

[Frank P]

Where to? What strength?

Still makes landfall on the MS coast

2nd landfall.

I say second landfall just a couple posts before this one... fwiw post 231

[Dean4Storms]

18z GFS Ensemble Mean shifted west by maybe 30 miles, about right over NOrleans.

[SconnieCane]

OK, can we stop with the west shifts already?

Humanitarian concerns for SW LA aside, they make no sense to me since I thought Zeta was doing what it needed to do in the short term (stay more S) to go more E in the long term.

[Astromanía]

Oh no another riviera maya treat

[NDG]

0z GFS is coming in stronger with Zeta.