EPAC: FELICIA - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

[Kingarabian]

Probably very close to a major hurricane if not one already.
https://i.imgur.com/NWPpmrO.png

Could see a special advisory if it keeps it up.

The eye is getting obscured by another convective burst near the core, but that seems to be a sign that it is continuing to intensify.

Yeah. It's going to be a solid looking donut if it can wrap around even colder convection. Looks like its going for more and just the B ring and warm eye requirement to get to minimal major hurricane status.

[Kingarabian]

[url]https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733552978572869632/865350725176393768/received_533585514649245.png[url]

Seeing that this pass is an hour old... and Felicia's eye was warm then + this MW presentation + ADT climbing up to 5.6 before coming back down, that it's very possible minimal Cat.3 status was reached.

[Sciencerocks]

[aspen]

Felicia reminds me a bit of early Irma: a compact (but not pinhole) Cat 2/3 with an almost annular-like appearance undergoing rapid intensification very early in its life.

[Kingarabian]

So close to a 5.5. Let's see if SAB does it

[cycloneye]

4.5

A. 06E (FELICIA)

B. 15/2330Z

C. 15.3N

D. 119.8W

E. ONE/GOES-W

F. T4.5/4.5

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...AN OW EYE THAT IS SURROUNDED BY LG AND EMBEDDED IN MG COLD
OVERCAST RESULTS IN A DT EQUAL TO 4.5 WITH NO EYE ADJUSTMENT MADE TO THE
DT. THE MET AND PT AGREE WITH THE DT BASED ON A SLOW DEVELOPMENT TREND
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SAMBUCCI

[Yellow Evan]

That’s a T5.0. Don’t know what SAB is doing.

[Kingarabian]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 15 JUL 2021 Time : 235031 UTC
Lat : 15:19:47 N Lon : 119:50:23 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.3 / 965.3mb/ 97.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.3 5.6 5.6

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 14 km

Center Temp : +1.6C Cloud Region Temp : -61.8C

Scene Type : EYE

Subtropical Adjustment : OFF

Extratropical Adjustment : OFF

Positioning Method : ARCHER POSITIONING

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[ElectricStorm]

5.3 is probably pretty close to reality at this point

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 15 JUL 2021 Time : 235031 UTC
Lat : 15:19:47 N Lon : 119:50:23 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.3 / 965.3mb/ 97.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.3 5.6 5.6

[Kingarabian]

SATCON and AMSU are also running pretty low still.

[aspen]

That eye is going to need to hit positive temps before either SATCON or manual SAB Dvorak numbers rise. 90-95 kt is probably a good estimate for Felicia’s current intensity, but if the eye clears, it’s an easy Cat 3.

Edit: oh wait the eye temps are nearly positive already.

[Kingarabian]

That eye is going to need to hit positive temps before either SATCON or manual SAB Dvorak numbers rise. 90-95 kt is probably a good estimate for Felicia’s current intensity, but if the eye clears, it’s an easy Cat 3.

Latest frame is near +2.0C.

[aspen]

That eye is going to need to hit positive temps before either SATCON or manual SAB Dvorak numbers rise. 90-95 kt is probably a good estimate for Felicia’s current intensity, but if the eye clears, it’s an easy Cat 3.

Latest frame is near +2.0C.

I corrected my earlier post. This looks like a borderline major, although it would be a more confident call if the eye maintains positive temps and the deepest convection finally wraps around the entire core.

[Stormybajan]

I smell a major Hurricane Felicia upgrade coming soon..

[Kingarabian]

[Kingarabian]

Eye temp uo to +11.6C

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 16 JUL 2021 Time : 002031 UTC
Lat : 15:22:48 N Lon : 119:54:36 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.3 / 965.3mb/ 97.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.3 5.7 5.7

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 15 km

Center Temp : +11.6C Cloud Region Temp : -59.9C

Scene Type : EYE

Subtropical Adjustment : OFF

Extratropical Adjustment : OFF

[ElectricStorm]

The eye is much clearer now but it looks like some dry air is trying to get in there. We'll see if it's able to mix it out without any disruption.

[Yellow Evan]

I smell a major Hurricane Felicia upgrade coming soon..

Not likely untill Dvorak numbers from SAB/TAFB rise.

[Kingarabian]

This is not a super intense eyewall but its well defined and found in EPAC major hurricanes that are surrounded by a drier air mass.