ATL: PETER - Models
Moderator: S2k Moderators
- Blown Away
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 9873
- Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am
Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
12z HWRF has a Major Hurricane (111 mph) at @16N/56.2W moving WNW at 126 hours...
1 likes
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05... EYE COMING MY WAY IN 2024…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 3950
- Age: 27
- Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:16 pm
- Location: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
1 likes
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
The Euro is back to developing 95L. It gets very close to Bermuda but ultimately passes to the E/SE.
0 likes
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
- Hurricaneman
- Category 5
- Posts: 7284
- Age: 43
- Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
- Location: central florida
Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
The 12zEuro almost lines up with the 12zGFS in terms of 96L and that keeps 95L more east towards Bermuda but there’s a lot of moving parts like what if 96L gets whisked away it would allow the ridge to build and 95L may become a major problem similar to the Canadian model
0 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 3950
- Age: 27
- Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:16 pm
- Location: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
Blown Away wrote:https://i.imgur.com/gYG3CEf.gif
12z HWRF has a Major Hurricane (111 mph) at @16N/56.2W moving WNW at 126 hours...
A whole degree further N.
0 likes
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
Now that we have all the 12z operational runs, we have some kind of consensus at the moment (again, they may change):
1. 96L will likely dip SE back to ~35N after passing to the south of Newfoundland, regardless of organization before then. Looks like it tries to catch a trough but barely fails as ridge builds back in. It then stalls there for an uncertain number of days depending on when the next trough picks it up.
All global models except GFS have been showing this for a couple of runs, and now the GFS is finally on board. The hurricane models seem to disagree, however.
2. 95L will likely survive the TUTT and either reintensify or reform after passing north of Puerto Rico, regardless of its intensity before the islands. Conditions look favorable wherever it ends up being. Looks like the GFS sniffed this out 4 runs ago, and now Euro and CMC finally keeps it after the TUTT.
A lot of uncertainties remain due to 95L's intensity, 96L's intensity and track, and the strength of the NE ridge that pushes 96L SE. The ridge may build back enough to prevent 95L from recurving like the CMC shows (especially if 96L moves well east). Or 95L may feel 96L's weakness and follow its path. Even a Fujiwhara can't be ruled out at this moment.
1. 96L will likely dip SE back to ~35N after passing to the south of Newfoundland, regardless of organization before then. Looks like it tries to catch a trough but barely fails as ridge builds back in. It then stalls there for an uncertain number of days depending on when the next trough picks it up.
All global models except GFS have been showing this for a couple of runs, and now the GFS is finally on board. The hurricane models seem to disagree, however.
2. 95L will likely survive the TUTT and either reintensify or reform after passing north of Puerto Rico, regardless of its intensity before the islands. Conditions look favorable wherever it ends up being. Looks like the GFS sniffed this out 4 runs ago, and now Euro and CMC finally keeps it after the TUTT.
A lot of uncertainties remain due to 95L's intensity, 96L's intensity and track, and the strength of the NE ridge that pushes 96L SE. The ridge may build back enough to prevent 95L from recurving like the CMC shows (especially if 96L moves well east). Or 95L may feel 96L's weakness and follow its path. Even a Fujiwhara can't be ruled out at this moment.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
4 likes
- Spacecoast
- Category 2
- Posts: 687
- Joined: Thu Aug 31, 2017 2:03 pm
Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
Teban54 wrote:Now that we have all the 12z operational runs, we have some kind of consensus at the moment (again, they may change):
......The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Yes, that seem like the state of play. There also seems to be some mid-range NW track agreement, and run-run consistency that most models show:
A. crossing near 20N, 60W
B. crossing near 25N, 65W
C. approaching, or east of 30N, 70W
I've been using these three coordinates as reference points. (No scientific significance, just easy to locate on various maps)
Last edited by Spacecoast on Wed Sep 15, 2021 4:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes
Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
Models seem to be trending west with time. CMC and GFS ensembles so far but Euro stubborn with recurving near Bermuda. Still we're 8-10 days out so lots of time to watch and wait.
0 likes
Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
The Euro has been awful these last 2 seasons. I definently value it less than used to.
1 likes
- SouthFLTropics
- Category 5
- Posts: 4156
- Age: 48
- Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 8:04 am
- Location: Port St. Lucie, Florida
Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
Alright, 18z "Happy Hour" GFS coming up... Does it throw us some crazy scenario or does it stay sober??? I think it's been a while since we've seen the 18z GFS go on a bender.
0 likes
Fourth Generation Floridian...With lots of storm knowledge passed down from my elders...
Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17
Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17
- ScottNAtlanta
- Category 5
- Posts: 2014
- Joined: Sat May 25, 2013 3:11 pm
- Location: Atlanta, GA
Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
The intensity models just got a whole lot more bullish after 96hrs
1 likes
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
I feel this is going to be a close call for Puerto Rico. The system is about 5 days away, plus the location sat this point and the system still need some quit time to get organized better. I would 20N 65W. Models are getting bullish now…. Time will tell!
0 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 3950
- Age: 27
- Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:16 pm
- Location: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
I think this time it will be more fishy since intensity guidance has started to become more bullish. We’ll see.
1 likes
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
- toad strangler
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 4177
- Joined: Sun Jul 28, 2013 3:09 pm
- Location: Earth
- Contact:
Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
AutoPenalti wrote:I think this time it will be more fishy since intensity guidance has started to become more bullish. We’ll see.
conventional climo wisdom agrees. All about that 500mb with a stronger system and that's tough to nail down.
0 likes
- toad strangler
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 4177
- Joined: Sun Jul 28, 2013 3:09 pm
- Location: Earth
- Contact:
Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
18z GFS trending slightly weaker @114 hrs approaching the Lesser A's .... trap door is there so should turn soon .... we'll see if the weaker signal means further W before
0 likes
- SFLcane
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 9626
- Age: 46
- Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
- Location: Lake Worth Florida
Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
toad strangler wrote:18z GFS trending slightly weaker @114 hrs approaching the Lesser A's .... trap door is there so should turn soon .... we'll see if the weaker signal means further W before
Na. It’s to weak to head north.
0 likes
- toad strangler
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 4177
- Joined: Sun Jul 28, 2013 3:09 pm
- Location: Earth
- Contact:
Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
SFLcane wrote:toad strangler wrote:18z GFS trending slightly weaker @114 hrs approaching the Lesser A's .... trap door is there so should turn soon .... we'll see if the weaker signal means further W before
Na. It’s to weak to head north.
I just alluded to that dude
132hrs and a depression into the N Lesser A's
Last edited by toad strangler on Wed Sep 15, 2021 5:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.
1 likes
Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
If it stays this weak it could go straight into PR and Hispanola this run.
0 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 3950
- Age: 27
- Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:16 pm
- Location: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
What a mess, at this point I’m looking at 500mb steering.
0 likes
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 3 guests