ATL: PETER - Models

[Blown Away]

12z HWRF has a Major Hurricane (111 mph) at @16N/56.2W moving WNW at 126 hours...

[AutoPenalti]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1438208805129662477

[aspen]

The Euro is back to developing 95L. It gets very close to Bermuda but ultimately passes to the E/SE.

[Hurricaneman]

The 12zEuro almost lines up with the 12zGFS in terms of 96L and that keeps 95L more east towards Bermuda but there’s a lot of moving parts like what if 96L gets whisked away it would allow the ridge to build and 95L may become a major problem similar to the Canadian model

[AutoPenalti]

https://i.imgur.com/gYG3CEf.gif
12z HWRF has a Major Hurricane (111 mph) at @16N/56.2W moving WNW at 126 hours...

A whole degree further N.

[Teban54]

Now that we have all the 12z operational runs, we have some kind of consensus at the moment (again, they may change):

1. 96L will likely dip SE back to ~35N after passing to the south of Newfoundland, regardless of organization before then. Looks like it tries to catch a trough but barely fails as ridge builds back in. It then stalls there for an uncertain number of days depending on when the next trough picks it up.
All global models except GFS have been showing this for a couple of runs, and now the GFS is finally on board. The hurricane models seem to disagree, however.

2. 95L will likely survive the TUTT and either reintensify or reform after passing north of Puerto Rico, regardless of its intensity before the islands. Conditions look favorable wherever it ends up being. Looks like the GFS sniffed this out 4 runs ago, and now Euro and CMC finally keeps it after the TUTT.

A lot of uncertainties remain due to 95L's intensity, 96L's intensity and track, and the strength of the NE ridge that pushes 96L SE. The ridge may build back enough to prevent 95L from recurving like the CMC shows (especially if 96L moves well east). Or 95L may feel 96L's weakness and follow its path. Even a Fujiwhara can't be ruled out at this moment.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[Spacecoast]

Now that we have all the 12z operational runs, we have some kind of consensus at the moment (again, they may change):
......

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

Yes, that seem like the state of play. There also seems to be some mid-range NW track agreement, and run-run consistency that most models show:

A. crossing near 20N, 60W
B. crossing near 25N, 65W
C. approaching, or east of 30N, 70W

I've been using these three coordinates as reference points. (No scientific significance, just easy to locate on various maps)

[ronjon]

Models seem to be trending west with time. CMC and GFS ensembles so far but Euro stubborn with recurving near Bermuda. Still we're 8-10 days out so lots of time to watch and wait.

[IcyTundra]

The Euro has been awful these last 2 seasons. I definently value it less than used to.

[SouthFLTropics]

Alright, 18z "Happy Hour" GFS coming up... Does it throw us some crazy scenario or does it stay sober??? I think it's been a while since we've seen the 18z GFS go on a bender.

[ScottNAtlanta]

The intensity models just got a whole lot more bullish after 96hrs

[Hugo1989]

I feel this is going to be a close call for Puerto Rico. The system is about 5 days away, plus the location sat this point and the system still need some quit time to get organized better. I would 20N 65W. Models are getting bullish now…. Time will tell!

[AutoPenalti]

I think this time it will be more fishy since intensity guidance has started to become more bullish. We’ll see.

[toad strangler]

I think this time it will be more fishy since intensity guidance has started to become more bullish. We’ll see.

conventional climo wisdom agrees. All about that 500mb with a stronger system and that's tough to nail down.

[toad strangler]

18z GFS trending slightly weaker @114 hrs approaching the Lesser A's .... trap door is there so should turn soon .... we'll see if the weaker signal means further W before

[SFLcane]

18z GFS trending slightly weaker @114 hrs approaching the Lesser A's .... trap door is there so should turn soon .... we'll see if the weaker signal means further W before

Na. It’s to weak to head north.

[toad strangler]

18z GFS trending slightly weaker @114 hrs approaching the Lesser A's .... trap door is there so should turn soon .... we'll see if the weaker signal means further W before

Na. It’s to weak to head north.

I just alluded to that dude

132hrs and a depression into the N Lesser A's

[IcyTundra]

If it stays this weak it could go straight into PR and Hispanola this run.

[AutoPenalti]

What a mess, at this point I’m looking at 500mb steering.

[SFLcane]

Ensembles will be interesting