ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

[Clearcloudz]

New Orleans I hope you see what I see.

[psyclone]

Genuinely surprised by the lack of cold cloud tops. She's definitely improving but it seems she hasn't undergone RI yet, let's hope that continues.

Ida is going past a cooler pool of water and has yet to reach the loop current, thus the warmer cloud tops.

It's dmin.. the sun is blasting those cloud tops. the real show will be overnight tonight. the foundation is set

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/FlynonymousWX/status/1431700330555842561

[TorSkk]

Eye looks to be clearing out again, this time with a slightly more symmetrical CDO

[aspen]

Ida reminds me a lot of Dorian when it first became a major — looked great on visible, but looked like crap on IR. This will probably be 95-105 kt when recon arrives later.

[drezee]

 https://twitter.com/andretrotter/status/1431705866663723011

[GCANE]

Haven't seen any high rain rates.
CAPE and Theta-E is borderline to minimal thru the GOM, which the models have been correctly advertising for many days now.

Chances of RI are somewhat minimal IMHO.

[PavelGaborik]

Genuinely surprised by the lack of cold cloud tops. She's definitely improving but it seems she hasn't undergone RI yet, let's hope that continues.

Ida is going past a cooler pool of water and has yet to reach the loop current, thus the warmer cloud tops.

She's passed the cold pool now, she isn't in the warmest part of the Eddie yet, but she's most certainly getting there and will be flat dead in the center of it tonight.

[kevin]

I just looked at the sat loop and extrapolated it. If it keeps up its current heading it'll be very close to New Orleans and with 'very close' I mean right on top of it. I of course don't wish this storm on anyone, but I do hope it takes a few wobbles west because a MH eyewall directly above New Orleans would be catastrophic.

[Shell Mound]

New Orleans I hope you see what I see.

https://i.imgur.com/JWgEL55.jpg

While this is still a very serious event, its wind field is smaller than either Katrina's or Betsy's, and current cloud tops do not suggest ERI. Even if it passes closer to NOLA, the surge and wind should be more confined than in either 1965 or 2005. As of now I think this will be somewhat less severe than Betsy in NOLA, though areas to the immediately southwest, closer to the coast, may be devastated. The current rate of deepening may be enough to support a high-end Category 3 at LF, but I am becoming a little more skeptical about a Category 4 or stronger. It will be severe, but perhaps not as severe as people think, certainly not over a wide area. But locally it will be bad.

[gatorcane]

New Orleans I hope you see what I see.

https://i.imgur.com/JWgEL55.jpg

While this is still a very serious event, its wind field is smaller than either Katrina's or Betsy's, and current cloud tops do not suggest ERI. Even if it passes closer to NOLA, the surge and wind should be more confined than in either 1965 or 2005. As of now I think this will be somewhat less severe than Betsy in NOLA, though areas to the immediately southwest, closer to the coast, may be devastated. The current rate of deepening may be enough to support a high-end Category 3 at LF, but I am becoming a little more skeptical about a Category 4 or stronger. It will be severe, but perhaps not as severe as people think, certainly not over a wide area. But locally it will be bad.

Why wasn’t NOLA evacuated again? I heard because there was not enough time?

[cycloneye]

We will have 2 planes from now for the next few hours and I say, the most anticipated missions of the 2021 season maybe the last Grace mission before landfall may rival these. So let's watch and wait for the data from the planes to come out to see what we have.

[SconnieCane]

Haven't seen any high rain rates.
CAPE and Theta-E is borderline to minimal thru the GOM, which the models have been correctly advertising for many days now.

Chances of RI are somewhat minimal IMHO.

I'd be reluctant to go against the NHC when they are explicitly forecasting RI which they seldom do...and it already achieved RI once from TD to hurricane.

[Shell Mound]

Genuinely surprised by the lack of cold cloud tops. She's definitely improving but it seems she hasn't undergone RI yet, let's hope that continues.

GCANE's observations suggest ML dry air is the culprit. Am I correct?

[Jr0d]

Just given by what the Ida has done the past hour on the satellite images, I expect the pressure to fall quickly. I would not be surprised if we see a 20mb+ drop 4pm(CDT).

This has all right ingredients to rapidly intensify, hopefully it will surprise us and struggle to intensity but the chances of that are very slim.

This post is from 1130am(edt), given how Ida looks now, I think Ida had at least a 20mb pressure drop and perhaps 30mb+.

I do not think recon we be there in time for the 5pm advisory, so we will know until a little later.

The past 30minutes or so Ida has really pulled itself together. I would be very surprised if the pressure is above 950mb now.

[ColdMiser123]

The best chance for rapid intensification will be when Ida crosses over the Loop Current during diurnal maximum, have to watch convective trends closely during that time.

[Keldeo1997]

 https://twitter.com/supercane7/status/1431706731319631876

[grapealcoholic]

ERI (explosive rapid intensification) imminent. Smaller core with -80s firing now. We might see a westward jog as it feels more of the effects of the ridge

[Highteeld]

The eye is shrinking

[jdjaguar]

Haven't seen any high rain rates.
CAPE and Theta-E is borderline to minimal thru the GOM, which the models have been correctly advertising for many days now.

Chances of RI are somewhat minimal IMHO.

I'd be reluctant to go against the NHC when they are explicitly forecasting RI which they seldom do...and it already achieved RI once from TD to hurricane.

Been on the board for over 15 years, GCANE knows his stuff, especially w/ the CAPE/Rain rate analysis.
Let's hope he is correct re lower possibility of RI.