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Hypercane_Kyle wrote:PavelGaborik wrote:Genuinely surprised by the lack of cold cloud tops. She's definitely improving but it seems she hasn't undergone RI yet, let's hope that continues.
Ida is going past a cooler pool of water and has yet to reach the loop current, thus the warmer cloud tops.
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:PavelGaborik wrote:Genuinely surprised by the lack of cold cloud tops. She's definitely improving but it seems she hasn't undergone RI yet, let's hope that continues.
Ida is going past a cooler pool of water and has yet to reach the loop current, thus the warmer cloud tops.
Shell Mound wrote:
While this is still a very serious event, its wind field is smaller than either Katrina's or Betsy's, and current cloud tops do not suggest ERI. Even if it passes closer to NOLA, the surge and wind should be more confined than in either 1965 or 2005. As of now I think this will be somewhat less severe than Betsy in NOLA, though areas to the immediately southwest, closer to the coast, may be devastated. The current rate of deepening may be enough to support a high-end Category 3 at LF, but I am becoming a little more skeptical about a Category 4 or stronger. It will be severe, but perhaps not as severe as people think, certainly not over a wide area. But locally it will be bad.
GCANE wrote:Haven't seen any high rain rates.
CAPE and Theta-E is borderline to minimal thru the GOM, which the models have been correctly advertising for many days now.
Chances of RI are somewhat minimal IMHO.
PavelGaborik wrote:Genuinely surprised by the lack of cold cloud tops. She's definitely improving but it seems she hasn't undergone RI yet, let's hope that continues.
Jr0d wrote:
Just given by what the Ida has done the past hour on the satellite images, I expect the pressure to fall quickly. I would not be surprised if we see a 20mb+ drop 4pm(CDT).
This has all right ingredients to rapidly intensify, hopefully it will surprise us and struggle to intensity but the chances of that are very slim.
SconnieCane wrote:GCANE wrote:Haven't seen any high rain rates.
CAPE and Theta-E is borderline to minimal thru the GOM, which the models have been correctly advertising for many days now.
Chances of RI are somewhat minimal IMHO.
I'd be reluctant to go against the NHC when they are explicitly forecasting RI which they seldom do...and it already achieved RI once from TD to hurricane.
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