WPAC: SURIGAE - Post-Tropical

[Iceresistance]

JTWC has this at 65 mph right now, expected to peak at High-end CAT 3/Low-end CAT 4



But if Surigae gets the Pinhole Eye, it may make a run for a CAT 5 Strength . . .

Reason why Pinhole eyes are more dangerous & regular eyes is because of a smaller & tighter core, making the winds even FASTER & more quicker intensification . . .

[1900hurricane]

ATMS:

[cycloneye]

Allen, the result of that microwave.

[aspen]

The HWRF has almost been certainly overdoing it with the eye size. It often predicts eye that are larger than what actually happens, and based on microwave imagery, that’s probably what’s happening here too.

Also the HWRF eye sizes for Surigae are absolutely enormous.

[InfernoFlameCat]

No stable convection quite yet I am still seeing puffs coming and going but it is very close. Also the LLC is almost directly in line with the MLC.

[1900hurricane]

[aspen]

https://i.imgur.com/2A8Pw4u.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/Zha7Tao.jpg

Oh boy, she’s about to explode.

IR imagery is also showing that the main convective mass is starting to curl, while a second band of convection is firing off to the west, like it’s developing rotating masses of convection around a stacked center.

[cycloneye]

SSD Dvorak at 4.0.

TXPQ29 KNES 151802
TCSWNP

A. 02W (SURIGAE)

B. 15/1730Z

C. 8.6N

D. 135.5E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T4.0/4.0

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR
DATA. 12/10 BANDING AROUND THE LLCC YIELDS A DT OF 4.0. MET AND PT AGREE
AND ARE EQUAL TO 4.0 BASED ON A DEVELOPMENT TREND IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. FT
IS BASED ON DT.

[Meow]

Based on CI4.0



<Analysis at 03 JST, 2021/04/16>
Intensity/Category Severe Tropical Storm
Center Position 8.6N 135.4E
Direction and speed of movement W Slow
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30m/s (60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s (85kt)
≥ 50-kt wind area ALL 55km (30NM)
≥ 30-kt wind area ALL 280km (150NM)

[1900hurricane]

JTWC and SAB are consensus 4.0 (haven't gotten a chance to check JMA). ADT is right there too. SATCON is 58 kt, but about six hours old. I'd probably go 65 kt for 18Z.

[Meow]

Oh boy, she’s about to explode.

IR imagery is also showing that the main convective mass is starting to curl, while a second band of convection is firing off to the west, like it’s developing rotating masses of convection around a stacked center.

This pattern looks more spectacular.



Surigae means eagle in North Korea.

[Meow]

JTWC and SAB are consensus 4.0 (haven't gotten a chance to check JMA). ADT is right there too. SATCON is 58 kt, but about six hours old. I'd probably go 65 kt for 18Z.

I have said that’s CI4.0 from JMA. Detailedly, DT4.0 MET4.0 PT3.5 FT4.0.

[cycloneye]

JTWC at 65kt but JMA still at 60kt.

02W SURIGAE 210415 1800 8.6N 135.2E WPAC 65 983

[Iceresistance]

JTWC has this at a 75 mph CAT 1 Typhoon

[mrbagyo]

Yeehah! Here we Go!


Good morning Surigae
Nascent eye feature now starting to form on visible

[StormTracker89]

https://col.st/XC0pz Nice VHT's kicking off near the core.

[Iceresistance]

Yeehah! Here we Go!
https://i.imgur.com/Isjsx4z.jpg

Good morning Surigae
Nascent eye feature now starting to form on visible
https://i.imgur.com/nujlxsG.gif

Also note the Gravity waves coming from the explosive convection . . .

[mrbagyo]

Palau - Sustained 30 knots gusting to 56 knots
METAR PTRO 152150Z 23030G56KT 1SM +SHRA OVC011CB 23/22 A2952 RMK CB ALQDS AND OHD=

[1900hurricane]

Think it might be safe to say an episode of rapid intensification has begun.

[StormTracker89]

Think it might be safe to say an episode of rapid intensification has begun.

I think you're right, and I think we're going to see an eye form in the next hour or so.