WPAC: SURIGAE - Post-Tropical
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- Iceresistance
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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Severe Tropical Storm
JTWC has this at 65 mph right now, expected to peak at High-end CAT 3/Low-end CAT 4
But if Surigae gets the Pinhole Eye, it may make a run for a CAT 5 Strength . . .
Reason why Pinhole eyes are more dangerous & regular eyes is because of a smaller & tighter core, making the winds even FASTER & more quicker intensification . . .
But if Surigae gets the Pinhole Eye, it may make a run for a CAT 5 Strength . . .
Reason why Pinhole eyes are more dangerous & regular eyes is because of a smaller & tighter core, making the winds even FASTER & more quicker intensification . . .
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
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- 1900hurricane
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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Severe Tropical Storm
ATMS:
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- cycloneye
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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Severe Tropical Storm
Allen, the result of that microwave.
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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Severe Tropical Storm
The HWRF has almost been certainly overdoing it with the eye size. It often predicts eye that are larger than what actually happens, and based on microwave imagery, that’s probably what’s happening here too.
Also the HWRF eye sizes for Surigae are absolutely enormous.
Also the HWRF eye sizes for Surigae are absolutely enormous.
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I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
- InfernoFlameCat
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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Severe Tropical Storm
No stable convection quite yet I am still seeing puffs coming and going but it is very close. Also the LLC is almost directly in line with the MLC.
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- 1900hurricane
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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Severe Tropical Storm
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Contract Meteorologist. TAMU & MSST. Fiercely authentic, one of a kind. We are all given free will, so choose a life meant to be lived. We are the Masters of our own Stories.
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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Severe Tropical Storm
Oh boy, she’s about to explode.
IR imagery is also showing that the main convective mass is starting to curl, while a second band of convection is firing off to the west, like it’s developing rotating masses of convection around a stacked center.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
- cycloneye
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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Severe Tropical Storm
SSD Dvorak at 4.0.
TXPQ29 KNES 151802
TCSWNP
A. 02W (SURIGAE)
B. 15/1730Z
C. 8.6N
D. 135.5E
E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8
F. T4.0/4.0
G. IR/EIR/SWIR
H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR
DATA. 12/10 BANDING AROUND THE LLCC YIELDS A DT OF 4.0. MET AND PT AGREE
AND ARE EQUAL TO 4.0 BASED ON A DEVELOPMENT TREND IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. FT
IS BASED ON DT.
TCSWNP
A. 02W (SURIGAE)
B. 15/1730Z
C. 8.6N
D. 135.5E
E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8
F. T4.0/4.0
G. IR/EIR/SWIR
H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR
DATA. 12/10 BANDING AROUND THE LLCC YIELDS A DT OF 4.0. MET AND PT AGREE
AND ARE EQUAL TO 4.0 BASED ON A DEVELOPMENT TREND IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. FT
IS BASED ON DT.
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- Meow
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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Severe Tropical Storm
Based on CI4.0
<Analysis at 03 JST, 2021/04/16>
Intensity/Category Severe Tropical Storm
Center Position 8.6N 135.4E
Direction and speed of movement W Slow
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30m/s (60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s (85kt)
≥ 50-kt wind area ALL 55km (30NM)
≥ 30-kt wind area ALL 280km (150NM)
<Analysis at 03 JST, 2021/04/16>
Intensity/Category Severe Tropical Storm
Center Position 8.6N 135.4E
Direction and speed of movement W Slow
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30m/s (60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s (85kt)
≥ 50-kt wind area ALL 55km (30NM)
≥ 30-kt wind area ALL 280km (150NM)
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Wikimedia User:Meow
- 1900hurricane
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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Severe Tropical Storm
JTWC and SAB are consensus 4.0 (haven't gotten a chance to check JMA). ADT is right there too. SATCON is 58 kt, but about six hours old. I'd probably go 65 kt for 18Z.
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- Meow
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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Severe Tropical Storm
aspen wrote:Oh boy, she’s about to explode.
IR imagery is also showing that the main convective mass is starting to curl, while a second band of convection is firing off to the west, like it’s developing rotating masses of convection around a stacked center.
This pattern looks more spectacular.
Surigae means eagle in North Korea.
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Wikimedia User:Meow
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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Severe Tropical Storm
1900hurricane wrote:JTWC and SAB are consensus 4.0 (haven't gotten a chance to check JMA). ADT is right there too. SATCON is 58 kt, but about six hours old. I'd probably go 65 kt for 18Z.
I have said that’s CI4.0 from JMA. Detailedly, DT4.0 MET4.0 PT3.5 FT4.0.
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Wikimedia User:Meow
- cycloneye
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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Severe Tropical Storm
JTWC at 65kt but JMA still at 60kt.
02W SURIGAE 210415 1800 8.6N 135.2E WPAC 65 983
02W SURIGAE 210415 1800 8.6N 135.2E WPAC 65 983
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- Iceresistance
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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Typhoon
JTWC has this at a 75 mph CAT 1 Typhoon
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
- mrbagyo
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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Severe Tropical Storm
Yeehah! Here we Go!
Good morning Surigae
Nascent eye feature now starting to form on visible
Good morning Surigae
Nascent eye feature now starting to form on visible
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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Severe Tropical Storm
https://col.st/XC0pz Nice VHT's kicking off near the core.
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- Iceresistance
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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Severe Tropical Storm
mrbagyo wrote:Yeehah! Here we Go!
https://i.imgur.com/Isjsx4z.jpg
Good morning Surigae
Nascent eye feature now starting to form on visible
https://i.imgur.com/nujlxsG.gif
Also note the Gravity waves coming from the explosive convection . . .
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
- mrbagyo
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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Severe Tropical Storm
Palau - Sustained 30 knots gusting to 56 knots
METAR PTRO 152150Z 23030G56KT 1SM +SHRA OVC011CB 23/22 A2952 RMK CB ALQDS AND OHD=
METAR PTRO 152150Z 23030G56KT 1SM +SHRA OVC011CB 23/22 A2952 RMK CB ALQDS AND OHD=
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- 1900hurricane
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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Severe Tropical Storm
Think it might be safe to say an episode of rapid intensification has begun.
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Contract Meteorologist. TAMU & MSST. Fiercely authentic, one of a kind. We are all given free will, so choose a life meant to be lived. We are the Masters of our own Stories.
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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Severe Tropical Storm
1900hurricane wrote:Think it might be safe to say an episode of rapid intensification has begun.
I think you're right, and I think we're going to see an eye form in the next hour or so.
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