ATL: SAM - Models

[Blown Away]

PR


Yikes!

[sma10]

Could easily wnw into the Florida pen.

https://i.postimg.cc/9XG9gP1J/B9-E0-E98-F-28-B6-4682-B6-E1-1966-A82-FEDF2.png

https://i.postimg.cc/9QNwwLFF/D9300931-D1-F8-4-D03-8-D4-D-627-DD9-C67-E4-D.png

Yikes that would possibly end up as an Irma 2.0. Ridiculous for this time of year. This is a 2021 Euro run, though, so this track could (read: hopefully) bust.

Irma? The only thing this has in common with Irma is that it's in the Atlantic Ocean, and has a general western motion

[SFLcane]

[Teban54]

All it took was two Euro runs for the thread to be active again

The low-res 12z Euro run is out on Tropical Tidbits. Despite delayed development, it's about as strong as 00z and only slightly weaker than yesterday's 12z.

[skyline385]

Could easily wnw into the Florida pen.

https://i.postimg.cc/9XG9gP1J/B9-E0-E98-F-28-B6-4682-B6-E1-1966-A82-FEDF2.png

https://i.postimg.cc/9QNwwLFF/D9300931-D1-F8-4-D03-8-D4-D-627-DD9-C67-E4-D.png

Yikes that would possibly end up as an Irma 2.0. Ridiculous for this time of year. This is a 2021 Euro run, though, so this track could (read: hopefully) bust.

Irma? The only thing this has in common with Irma is that it's in the Atlantic Ocean, and has a general western motion

Think this EURO run has more in common with Maria than Irma...

[aspen]

Could easily wnw into the Florida pen.

https://i.postimg.cc/9XG9gP1J/B9-E0-E98-F-28-B6-4682-B6-E1-1966-A82-FEDF2.png

https://i.postimg.cc/9QNwwLFF/D9300931-D1-F8-4-D03-8-D4-D-627-DD9-C67-E4-D.png

Yikes that would possibly end up as an Irma 2.0. Ridiculous for this time of year. This is a 2021 Euro run, though, so this track could (read: hopefully) bust.

Irma? The only thing this has in common with Irma is that it's in the Atlantic Ocean, and has a general western motion

It’s starting from a much lower latitude, but if it follows this run, 98L could have an Irma-like track into the NW Lesser Antilles and passing just a hair north of the Greater Antilles, and it could be a major the entire time. A trough could save the day for Florida, unlike Irma.

[blp]

UKMET is go as well.

[toad strangler]

Yikes that would possibly end up as an Irma 2.0. Ridiculous for this time of year. This is a 2021 Euro run, though, so this track could (read: hopefully) bust.

Irma? The only thing this has in common with Irma is that it's in the Atlantic Ocean, and has a general western motion

It’s starting from a much lower latitude, but if it follows this run, 98L could have an Irma-like track into the NW Lesser Antilles and passing just a hair north of the Greater Antilles, and it could be a major the entire time. A trough could save the day for Florida, unlike Irma.

At this juncture you'd have to assume that a trough would dig and scoop this out but records are made to be broken. Wildly fluctuating model runs here combined with a 10 plus day time frame. Just mildly interestin at this point.

[kevin]

Well one thing's for sure, this forum is gonna get a lot busier the coming days...

[grapealcoholic]

Not too surprised euro has this bombing out on approach to the islands. Later in the season = more instability

[Category5Kaiju]

Yikes that would possibly end up as an Irma 2.0. Ridiculous for this time of year. This is a 2021 Euro run, though, so this track could (read: hopefully) bust.

Irma? The only thing this has in common with Irma is that it's in the Atlantic Ocean, and has a general western motion

Think this EURO run has more in common with Maria than Irma...

Yeah either way, no bueno

[sma10]

Yikes that would possibly end up as an Irma 2.0. Ridiculous for this time of year. This is a 2021 Euro run, though, so this track could (read: hopefully) bust.

Irma? The only thing this has in common with Irma is that it's in the Atlantic Ocean, and has a general western motion

It’s starting from a much lower latitude, but if it follows this run, 98L could have an Irma-like track into the NW Lesser Antilles and passing just a hair north of the Greater Antilles, and it could be a major the entire time. A trough could save the day for Florida, unlike Irma.

Oh okay.
To me it just looks like another of the million other tracks that have done basically the same thing over the years.

[grapealcoholic]

[supercane4867]

The trough doesn't run very deep.

[ronjon]

Have to see if that small 500 mb high over FL bridges east to connect with the stronger 591 dm high in the SW Atlantic in the next few Euro runs. The upper level trough located over Ohio in the 00z run is weakening and pulling northeast in this run. Still lots of days of model watching ahead. Ensembles might yield some long range clues to this evolving 500 mb pattern.

[sma10]

Irma? The only thing this has in common with Irma is that it's in the Atlantic Ocean, and has a general western motion

It’s starting from a much lower latitude, but if it follows this run, 98L could have an Irma-like track into the NW Lesser Antilles and passing just a hair north of the Greater Antilles, and it could be a major the entire time. A trough could save the day for Florida, unlike Irma.

At this juncture you'd have to assume that a trough would dig and scoop this out but records are made to be broken. Wildly fluctuating model runs here combined with a 10 plus day time frame. Just mildly interestin at this point.

Yeah you would think. But taken verbatim, the orientation of the trough on D10 of the Euro doesn't look good. It doesn't look progressive.

[LarryWx]

Delete

[LarryWx]

12Z EPS: I count (at least) 4 hits on S or C FL (10/4-5) with also several different ones hitting further up in the SE US 10/5-6 meaning about 15% or so of the members hitting the SE US:

[AutoPenalti]

12Z EPS: I count (at least) 4 hits on S or C FL (10/4-5) with also several different ones hitting further up in the SE US 10/5-6 meaning about 15% or so of the members hitting the SE US:

https://i.imgur.com/RMBv0Xo.png

One member per day lol...

[crownweather]

12Z EPS: I count (at least) 4 hits on S or C FL (10/4-5) with also several different ones hitting further up in the SE US 10/5-6 meaning about 15% or so of the members hitting the SE US:

https://i.imgur.com/RMBv0Xo.png

It looks like an overall increase in hits versus the 00Z EPS & certainly versus yesterday's 12Z EPS model run. Do you concur?