ATL: SAM - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
Blown Away
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10145
Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#281 Postby Blown Away » Tue Sep 21, 2021 2:13 pm

Image
PR
Image

Yikes!
3 likes   
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05... EYE COMING MY WAY IN 2024…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…

sma10
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1710
Joined: Tue Aug 02, 2005 1:13 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#282 Postby sma10 » Tue Sep 21, 2021 2:17 pm

aspen wrote:

Yikes that would possibly end up as an Irma 2.0. Ridiculous for this time of year. This is a 2021 Euro run, though, so this track could (read: hopefully) bust.


Irma? The only thing this has in common with Irma is that it's in the Atlantic Ocean, and has a general western motion
1 likes   

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10163
Age: 47
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#283 Postby SFLcane » Tue Sep 21, 2021 2:19 pm

Image
2 likes   

User avatar
Teban54
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3204
Joined: Sat May 19, 2018 1:19 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#284 Postby Teban54 » Tue Sep 21, 2021 2:20 pm

All it took was two Euro runs for the thread to be active again :lol:

The low-res 12z Euro run is out on Tropical Tidbits. Despite delayed development, it's about as strong as 00z and only slightly weaker than yesterday's 12z.
0 likes   

User avatar
skyline385
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2728
Age: 35
Joined: Wed Aug 26, 2020 11:15 pm
Location: Houston TX

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#285 Postby skyline385 » Tue Sep 21, 2021 2:21 pm

sma10 wrote:
aspen wrote:

Yikes that would possibly end up as an Irma 2.0. Ridiculous for this time of year. This is a 2021 Euro run, though, so this track could (read: hopefully) bust.


Irma? The only thing this has in common with Irma is that it's in the Atlantic Ocean, and has a general western motion

Think this EURO run has more in common with Maria than Irma...
1 likes   

User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8818
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#286 Postby aspen » Tue Sep 21, 2021 2:21 pm

sma10 wrote:
aspen wrote:

Yikes that would possibly end up as an Irma 2.0. Ridiculous for this time of year. This is a 2021 Euro run, though, so this track could (read: hopefully) bust.


Irma? The only thing this has in common with Irma is that it's in the Atlantic Ocean, and has a general western motion

It’s starting from a much lower latitude, but if it follows this run, 98L could have an Irma-like track into the NW Lesser Antilles and passing just a hair north of the Greater Antilles, and it could be a major the entire time. A trough could save the day for Florida, unlike Irma.
0 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21

I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.

User avatar
blp
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2840
Age: 46
Joined: Thu Sep 09, 2004 7:51 pm
Location: Miami, FL
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#287 Postby blp » Tue Sep 21, 2021 2:24 pm

UKMET is go as well.

Image
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
toad strangler
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4543
Joined: Sun Jul 28, 2013 3:09 pm
Location: Earth
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#288 Postby toad strangler » Tue Sep 21, 2021 2:25 pm

aspen wrote:
sma10 wrote:
aspen wrote:Yikes that would possibly end up as an Irma 2.0. Ridiculous for this time of year. This is a 2021 Euro run, though, so this track could (read: hopefully) bust.


Irma? The only thing this has in common with Irma is that it's in the Atlantic Ocean, and has a general western motion

It’s starting from a much lower latitude, but if it follows this run, 98L could have an Irma-like track into the NW Lesser Antilles and passing just a hair north of the Greater Antilles, and it could be a major the entire time. A trough could save the day for Florida, unlike Irma.



At this juncture you'd have to assume that a trough would dig and scoop this out but records are made to be broken. Wildly fluctuating model runs here combined with a 10 plus day time frame. Just mildly interestin at this point.
0 likes   

User avatar
kevin
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2586
Age: 26
Joined: Wed Aug 28, 2019 4:35 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#289 Postby kevin » Tue Sep 21, 2021 2:26 pm

Well one thing's for sure, this forum is gonna get a lot busier the coming days...
1 likes   

grapealcoholic
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 684
Joined: Tue Aug 10, 2021 3:26 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#290 Postby grapealcoholic » Tue Sep 21, 2021 2:26 pm

Not too surprised euro has this bombing out on approach to the islands. Later in the season = more instability
0 likes   

User avatar
Category5Kaiju
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4095
Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2020 12:45 pm
Location: Seattle

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#291 Postby Category5Kaiju » Tue Sep 21, 2021 2:29 pm

:froze:
skyline385 wrote:
sma10 wrote:
aspen wrote:Yikes that would possibly end up as an Irma 2.0. Ridiculous for this time of year. This is a 2021 Euro run, though, so this track could (read: hopefully) bust.


Irma? The only thing this has in common with Irma is that it's in the Atlantic Ocean, and has a general western motion

Think this EURO run has more in common with Maria than Irma...


Yeah either way, no bueno
0 likes   
Unless explicitly stated, all info in my posts is based on my own opinions and observations. Tropical storms and hurricanes can be extremely dangerous. Do not think you can beat Mother Nature. Refer to an accredited weather research agency or meteorologist if you need to make serious decisions regarding an approaching storm.

sma10
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1710
Joined: Tue Aug 02, 2005 1:13 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#292 Postby sma10 » Tue Sep 21, 2021 2:29 pm

aspen wrote:
sma10 wrote:
aspen wrote:Yikes that would possibly end up as an Irma 2.0. Ridiculous for this time of year. This is a 2021 Euro run, though, so this track could (read: hopefully) bust.


Irma? The only thing this has in common with Irma is that it's in the Atlantic Ocean, and has a general western motion

It’s starting from a much lower latitude, but if it follows this run, 98L could have an Irma-like track into the NW Lesser Antilles and passing just a hair north of the Greater Antilles, and it could be a major the entire time. A trough could save the day for Florida, unlike Irma.


Oh okay.
To me it just looks like another of the million other tracks that have done basically the same thing over the years.
0 likes   

grapealcoholic
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 684
Joined: Tue Aug 10, 2021 3:26 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#293 Postby grapealcoholic » Tue Sep 21, 2021 2:29 pm

Image
0 likes   

supercane4867
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4966
Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#294 Postby supercane4867 » Tue Sep 21, 2021 2:30 pm

The trough doesn't run very deep.

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
ronjon
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4822
Joined: Fri Aug 19, 2005 5:17 pm
Location: Hernando Beach, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#295 Postby ronjon » Tue Sep 21, 2021 2:30 pm

Have to see if that small 500 mb high over FL bridges east to connect with the stronger 591 dm high in the SW Atlantic in the next few Euro runs. The upper level trough located over Ohio in the 00z run is weakening and pulling northeast in this run. Still lots of days of model watching ahead. Ensembles might yield some long range clues to this evolving 500 mb pattern.
0 likes   

sma10
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1710
Joined: Tue Aug 02, 2005 1:13 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#296 Postby sma10 » Tue Sep 21, 2021 2:32 pm

toad strangler wrote:
aspen wrote:
sma10 wrote:
Irma? The only thing this has in common with Irma is that it's in the Atlantic Ocean, and has a general western motion

It’s starting from a much lower latitude, but if it follows this run, 98L could have an Irma-like track into the NW Lesser Antilles and passing just a hair north of the Greater Antilles, and it could be a major the entire time. A trough could save the day for Florida, unlike Irma.



At this juncture you'd have to assume that a trough would dig and scoop this out but records are made to be broken. Wildly fluctuating model runs here combined with a 10 plus day time frame. Just mildly interestin at this point.


Yeah you would think. But taken verbatim, the orientation of the trough on D10 of the Euro doesn't look good. It doesn't look progressive.
0 likes   

LarryWx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6304
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: GA

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#297 Postby LarryWx » Tue Sep 21, 2021 3:04 pm

Delete
Last edited by LarryWx on Tue Sep 21, 2021 3:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

LarryWx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6304
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: GA

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#298 Postby LarryWx » Tue Sep 21, 2021 3:04 pm

12Z EPS: I count (at least) 4 hits on S or C FL (10/4-5) with also several different ones hitting further up in the SE US 10/5-6 meaning about 15% or so of the members hitting the SE US:

Image
3 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

AutoPenalti
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4030
Age: 29
Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:16 pm
Location: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#299 Postby AutoPenalti » Tue Sep 21, 2021 3:11 pm

LarryWx wrote:12Z EPS: I count (at least) 4 hits on S or C FL (10/4-5) with also several different ones hitting further up in the SE US 10/5-6 meaning about 15% or so of the members hitting the SE US:

https://i.imgur.com/RMBv0Xo.png

One member per day lol...
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.


Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

TCVN
is a weighted averaged

User avatar
crownweather
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 595
Age: 50
Joined: Sat Aug 12, 2006 9:21 am
Location: Sturbridge, Massachusetts
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#300 Postby crownweather » Tue Sep 21, 2021 3:11 pm

LarryWx wrote:12Z EPS: I count (at least) 4 hits on S or C FL (10/4-5) with also several different ones hitting further up in the SE US 10/5-6 meaning about 15% or so of the members hitting the SE US:

https://i.imgur.com/RMBv0Xo.png


It looks like an overall increase in hits versus the 00Z EPS & certainly versus yesterday's 12Z EPS model run. Do you concur?
0 likes   
Rob Lightbown
Crown Weather Services
https://crownweather.com


Return to “2021”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 3 guests