ATL: NICHOLAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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aspen
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#41 Postby aspen » Sat Sep 11, 2021 7:14 pm

Based on Levi's video and assorted model runs, this is what the future of 94L could be like:
Image
First it consolidates in the BoC tomorrow, then reaches peak intensity on Monday (or early Tuesday at the latest) while shear remains low and it's in a decent UL environment, before weakening on Tuesday as it runs into strong UL flow from the west and decouples. Levi mentioned that a stronger vortex would get tugged to the east by that flow, similar to what the GFS was showing on its 12z run.

If 94L consolidates quickly tomorrow and isn't far enough west that it quickly runs into Mexico, I can see a peak intensity in the 55-70 kt range.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#42 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Sat Sep 11, 2021 8:10 pm

Doesn't look like the bar for this one is very high, no more than a 50-60 knot TS IMHO. A lot of rain though!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#43 Postby Stormcenter » Sat Sep 11, 2021 8:35 pm

it is Sept. and it's in the Gulf....enough said IMO. i wouldn't sleep on it or just assume it won't amount to much.


Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Doesn't look like the bar for this one is very high, no more than a 50-60 knot TS IMHO. A lot of rain though!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#44 Postby johngaltfla » Sat Sep 11, 2021 8:43 pm

Stormcenter wrote:it is Sept. and it's in the Gulf....enough said IMO. i wouldn't sleep on it or just assume it won't amount to much.


Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Doesn't look like the bar for this one is very high, no more than a 50-60 knot TS IMHO. A lot of rain though!


I concur. The path, lack of shear, and ability to intensify could easily make this a high Cat 2 or low Cat 3 based on history and climatology.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#45 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Sat Sep 11, 2021 9:14 pm

johngaltfla wrote:
Stormcenter wrote:it is Sept. and it's in the Gulf....enough said IMO. i wouldn't sleep on it or just assume it won't amount to much.


Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Doesn't look like the bar for this one is very high, no more than a 50-60 knot TS IMHO. A lot of rain though!


I concur. The path, lack of shear, and ability to intensify could easily make this a high Cat 2 or low Cat 3 based on history and climatology.


But there is shear waiting for it. And land interaction will be a factor too.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#46 Postby SoupBone » Sat Sep 11, 2021 9:15 pm

johngaltfla wrote:
Stormcenter wrote:it is Sept. and it's in the Gulf....enough said IMO. i wouldn't sleep on it or just assume it won't amount to much.


Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Doesn't look like the bar for this one is very high, no more than a 50-60 knot TS IMHO. A lot of rain though!


I concur. The path, lack of shear, and ability to intensify could easily make this a high Cat 2 or low Cat 3 based on history and climatology.



I'm sorry, but there is nothing at all to suggest that this is a possibility. Too many negative variables in its way.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#47 Postby Clearcloudz » Sat Sep 11, 2021 9:16 pm

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:
johngaltfla wrote:
Stormcenter wrote:it is Sept. and it's in the Gulf....enough said IMO. i wouldn't sleep on it or just assume it won't amount to much.




I concur. The path, lack of shear, and ability to intensify could easily make this a high Cat 2 or low Cat 3 based on history and climatology.


But there is shear waiting for it. And land interaction will be a factor too.


Dry air will also become a factor making the system more east weighted.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#48 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Sat Sep 11, 2021 9:18 pm

Convection to the east, and intense convection at that could pull the vorticity to the east. If it goes far enough east, it could escape some of the shear. Still probably a low grade cat 1 or high end Ts even if that occurred. I’m more worried about a repeat of Imelda or Allison type scenario.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#49 Postby IcyTundra » Sat Sep 11, 2021 9:19 pm

Clearcloudz wrote:
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:
johngaltfla wrote:
I concur. The path, lack of shear, and ability to intensify could easily make this a high Cat 2 or low Cat 3 based on history and climatology.


But there is shear waiting for it. And land interaction will be a factor too.


Dry air will also become a factor making the system more east weighted.


I haven't heard any pro mets talk about dry air being much of a factor so I'm not sure how much of an effect the dry air will have on it. Seems like wind shear will be the main thing holding this down.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#50 Postby Sciencerocks » Sat Sep 11, 2021 11:06 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#51 Postby grapealcoholic » Sun Sep 12, 2021 1:42 am

DMAX doing work
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#52 Postby xironman » Sun Sep 12, 2021 3:19 am

Near 30kt ship report. Maybe straight to TS if a center can be found.

ID T1 TIME LAT LON DIST HDG WDIR WSPD
(GMT) nm °T °T kts
----------------------------------------------------
SHIP S 0700 22.40 -91.50 137 82 100 28.9


No west winds, maybe the dmax towers will close it off

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#53 Postby grapealcoholic » Sun Sep 12, 2021 3:46 am

xironman wrote:Near 30kt ship report. Maybe straight to TS if a center can be found.

ID T1 TIME LAT LON DIST HDG WDIR WSPD
(GMT) nm °T °T kts
----------------------------------------------------
SHIP S 0700 22.40 -91.50 137 82 100 28.9


No west winds, maybe the dmax towers will close it off

https://i.imgur.com/8qiNLJn.jpg

Think ASCAT could be missing a small circulation.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#54 Postby ChrisH-UK » Sun Sep 12, 2021 5:09 am

94l is showing convection but still looks unorganised.

CIRA Snow/Cloud Imagery from GOES-16. Source https://col.st/wX81g

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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#55 Postby hurricane2025 » Sun Sep 12, 2021 5:36 am

ChrisH-UK wrote:94l is showing convection but still looks unorganised.

CIRA Snow/Cloud Imagery from GOES-16. Source https://col.st/wX81g

https://imgur.com/l2ApOFv



Looks better than mindy lol
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#56 Postby kevin » Sun Sep 12, 2021 6:09 am

Looking better and better, wouldn't be surprised if it's classified very soon.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#57 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 12, 2021 6:16 am

AF plane is on route.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#58 Postby Nimbus » Sun Sep 12, 2021 6:25 am

kevin wrote:Looking better and better, wouldn't be surprised if it's classified very soon.

https://imgur.com/k6XLTGE


I'd say its looking worse as far as track goes but convection doesn't locate the LLC unless it persists.
Recon is probably going to find a broad shallow trough shaped area of low pressure.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#59 Postby aspen » Sun Sep 12, 2021 6:28 am

This will likely be PTC14 at 11am. I don’t think it’s closed just yet, but it should be soon, and land impacts could begin as early as tomorrow.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#60 Postby xironman » Sun Sep 12, 2021 6:39 am

I think they will close it off. Convection will have been hard at work for 10 hrs since the ascat. Pressures are starting to fall at 42055
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