ATL: NICHOLAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion
Based on Levi's video and assorted model runs, this is what the future of 94L could be like:
First it consolidates in the BoC tomorrow, then reaches peak intensity on Monday (or early Tuesday at the latest) while shear remains low and it's in a decent UL environment, before weakening on Tuesday as it runs into strong UL flow from the west and decouples. Levi mentioned that a stronger vortex would get tugged to the east by that flow, similar to what the GFS was showing on its 12z run.
If 94L consolidates quickly tomorrow and isn't far enough west that it quickly runs into Mexico, I can see a peak intensity in the 55-70 kt range.
First it consolidates in the BoC tomorrow, then reaches peak intensity on Monday (or early Tuesday at the latest) while shear remains low and it's in a decent UL environment, before weakening on Tuesday as it runs into strong UL flow from the west and decouples. Levi mentioned that a stronger vortex would get tugged to the east by that flow, similar to what the GFS was showing on its 12z run.
If 94L consolidates quickly tomorrow and isn't far enough west that it quickly runs into Mexico, I can see a peak intensity in the 55-70 kt range.
4 likes
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
- Hypercane_Kyle
- Category 5
- Posts: 2902
- Joined: Sat Mar 07, 2015 7:58 pm
- Location: Cape Canaveral, FL
Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion
Doesn't look like the bar for this one is very high, no more than a 50-60 knot TS IMHO. A lot of rain though!
0 likes
My posts are my own personal opinion, defer to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and other NOAA products for decision making during hurricane season.
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 6617
- Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:27 am
- Location: Houston, TX
Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion
it is Sept. and it's in the Gulf....enough said IMO. i wouldn't sleep on it or just assume it won't amount to much.
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Doesn't look like the bar for this one is very high, no more than a 50-60 knot TS IMHO. A lot of rain though!
5 likes
- johngaltfla
- Category 5
- Posts: 1939
- Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 9:17 pm
- Location: Sarasota County, FL
- Contact:
Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion
Stormcenter wrote:it is Sept. and it's in the Gulf....enough said IMO. i wouldn't sleep on it or just assume it won't amount to much.Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Doesn't look like the bar for this one is very high, no more than a 50-60 knot TS IMHO. A lot of rain though!
I concur. The path, lack of shear, and ability to intensify could easily make this a high Cat 2 or low Cat 3 based on history and climatology.
1 likes
- Hypercane_Kyle
- Category 5
- Posts: 2902
- Joined: Sat Mar 07, 2015 7:58 pm
- Location: Cape Canaveral, FL
Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion
johngaltfla wrote:Stormcenter wrote:it is Sept. and it's in the Gulf....enough said IMO. i wouldn't sleep on it or just assume it won't amount to much.Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Doesn't look like the bar for this one is very high, no more than a 50-60 knot TS IMHO. A lot of rain though!
I concur. The path, lack of shear, and ability to intensify could easily make this a high Cat 2 or low Cat 3 based on history and climatology.
But there is shear waiting for it. And land interaction will be a factor too.
0 likes
My posts are my own personal opinion, defer to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and other NOAA products for decision making during hurricane season.
Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion
johngaltfla wrote:Stormcenter wrote:it is Sept. and it's in the Gulf....enough said IMO. i wouldn't sleep on it or just assume it won't amount to much.Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Doesn't look like the bar for this one is very high, no more than a 50-60 knot TS IMHO. A lot of rain though!
I concur. The path, lack of shear, and ability to intensify could easily make this a high Cat 2 or low Cat 3 based on history and climatology.
I'm sorry, but there is nothing at all to suggest that this is a possibility. Too many negative variables in its way.
10 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- Clearcloudz
- Category 2
- Posts: 523
- Joined: Sun Jun 10, 2018 1:46 pm
- Location: Rosenberg TX
Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:johngaltfla wrote:Stormcenter wrote:it is Sept. and it's in the Gulf....enough said IMO. i wouldn't sleep on it or just assume it won't amount to much.
I concur. The path, lack of shear, and ability to intensify could easily make this a high Cat 2 or low Cat 3 based on history and climatology.
But there is shear waiting for it. And land interaction will be a factor too.
Dry air will also become a factor making the system more east weighted.
1 likes
- InfernoFlameCat
- Category 5
- Posts: 1966
- Age: 21
- Joined: Mon Dec 14, 2020 10:52 am
- Location: Buford, GA
Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion
Convection to the east, and intense convection at that could pull the vorticity to the east. If it goes far enough east, it could escape some of the shear. Still probably a low grade cat 1 or high end Ts even if that occurred. I’m more worried about a repeat of Imelda or Allison type scenario.
0 likes
I am by no means a professional. DO NOT look at my forecasts for official information or make decisions based on what I post.
Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.
Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.
Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion
Clearcloudz wrote:Hypercane_Kyle wrote:johngaltfla wrote:
I concur. The path, lack of shear, and ability to intensify could easily make this a high Cat 2 or low Cat 3 based on history and climatology.
But there is shear waiting for it. And land interaction will be a factor too.
Dry air will also become a factor making the system more east weighted.
I haven't heard any pro mets talk about dry air being much of a factor so I'm not sure how much of an effect the dry air will have on it. Seems like wind shear will be the main thing holding this down.
2 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 7300
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu Jul 06, 2017 1:51 am
Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion
0 likes
-
- Category 2
- Posts: 634
- Joined: Tue Aug 10, 2021 3:26 pm
Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion
Near 30kt ship report. Maybe straight to TS if a center can be found.
No west winds, maybe the dmax towers will close it off
ID T1 TIME LAT LON DIST HDG WDIR WSPD
(GMT) nm °T °T kts
----------------------------------------------------
SHIP S 0700 22.40 -91.50 137 82 100 28.9
(GMT) nm °T °T kts
----------------------------------------------------
SHIP S 0700 22.40 -91.50 137 82 100 28.9
No west winds, maybe the dmax towers will close it off
0 likes
-
- Category 2
- Posts: 634
- Joined: Tue Aug 10, 2021 3:26 pm
Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion
xironman wrote:Near 30kt ship report. Maybe straight to TS if a center can be found.ID T1 TIME LAT LON DIST HDG WDIR WSPD
(GMT) nm °T °T kts
----------------------------------------------------
SHIP S 0700 22.40 -91.50 137 82 100 28.9
No west winds, maybe the dmax towers will close it off
https://i.imgur.com/8qiNLJn.jpg
Think ASCAT could be missing a small circulation.
1 likes
Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion
94l is showing convection but still looks unorganised.
CIRA Snow/Cloud Imagery from GOES-16. Source https://col.st/wX81g
CIRA Snow/Cloud Imagery from GOES-16. Source https://col.st/wX81g
0 likes
-
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 163
- Joined: Thu Apr 08, 2021 10:36 am
Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion
ChrisH-UK wrote:94l is showing convection but still looks unorganised.
CIRA Snow/Cloud Imagery from GOES-16. Source https://col.st/wX81g
https://imgur.com/l2ApOFv
Looks better than mindy lol
0 likes
Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion
1 likes
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139596
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion
AF plane is on route.
3 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion
kevin wrote:Looking better and better, wouldn't be surprised if it's classified very soon.
https://imgur.com/k6XLTGE
I'd say its looking worse as far as track goes but convection doesn't locate the LLC unless it persists.
Recon is probably going to find a broad shallow trough shaped area of low pressure.
0 likes
Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion
This will likely be PTC14 at 11am. I don’t think it’s closed just yet, but it should be soon, and land impacts could begin as early as tomorrow.
0 likes
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion
I think they will close it off. Convection will have been hard at work for 10 hrs since the ascat. Pressures are starting to fall at 42055
0 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 3 guests