ATL: GRACE - Remnants - Discussion

[cheezyWXguy]

Don't follow blob of convection... But IR seems to have jogged SW for a frame towards the end in my view, then again is this even real lol

Yes, IR is going to be nearly useless for the next 12-24 hours in terms of deciphering llc track since it likely won’t be all that organized. From what I can tell right now, judging by the low level cloud movement I see on the west side of the system when looking at night vis, it looks like the llc is near the northern edge of the blob. The hwrf’s track through PR and just off the northern coast of DR seems reasonable to me. Although if I were to bet, I would wager it will scrape the northern end, just south of the hwrf track.

[gatorcane]

This storms appearance has really deteriorated since this morning. Now it’s showing it’s true colors unlike earlier today.

It should pick up during DMAX.

The GFS showed this and forecasts even less convection by tomorrow. Here is a 19 hour loop:

[SFLcane]

This storms appearance has really deteriorated since this morning. Now it’s showing it’s true colors unlike earlier today.

It should pick up during DMAX.

The GFS showed this and forecasts even less convection by tomorrow. Here is a 19 hour loop:

https://i.postimg.cc/nL7ngxd3/gfs-ir-07-L-fh1-19.gif

No.

 https://twitter.com/derekortt/status/1426663130332114949

[tolakram]

Getting in range of the PR radar.

[tolakram]

200 frame saved IR loop

[Kohlecane]

Don't follow blob of convection... But IR seems to have jogged SW for a frame towards the end in my view, then again is this even real lol

Yes, IR is going to be nearly useless for the next 12-24 hours in terms of deciphering llc track since it likely won’t be all that organized. From what I can tell right now, judging by the low level cloud movement I see on the west side of the system when looking at night vis, it looks like the llc is near the northern edge of the blob. The hwrf’s track through PR and just off the northern coast of DR seems reasonable to me. Although if I were to bet, I would wager it will scrape the northern end, just south of the hwrf track.

Seems reasonable, It's just moving quick if it were to follow hwrf's 18z it would need to jump NW within the next 3-4 hours IMO

[Sciencerocks]

[tolakram]

Saved 200 frame SWIR loop

[USVIKimmie]

Current conditions in St. Maarten:
Wind picking up.
Thunder in the distance.
Lightning in the South.
No rain.
Cockatoo, dogs, and humans tucked in for the night.

Picking up here on St Thomas too. Good thing I checked wind forecast locally - went out in the dark to take deck shade down. Bugging out at first light. Might be too late by then, dang it.

[AutoPenalti]

I don’t see an LLC at all...

[SouthFLTropics]

I don’t see an LLC at all...

You'll be hard pressed to find one at night on IR. Will have to wait for recon, surface obs, or visible in the AM to confirm. My best guess is that it is at the northern end of the convection.

[SouthFLTropics]

Notable from the advisory at 11:00 PM

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H

[edu2703]

[Category5Kaiju]

Notable from the advisory at 11:00 PM

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H

WNW?? That's...interesting

[SFLcane]

Reformed north as i suspected and slowing down.

[Owasso]

[IcyTundra]

Not much of a change at the 11pm update still a lot of uncertainty.

[Spacecoast]

NHC 11PM:
"Thereafter, it appears likely that Grace will have to deal with
significant land interaction over Hispaniola and weakening is
indicated by 48 hours. If Grace survives, it is possible some modest
intensification could occur in the latter part of the forecast
period."

[Category5Kaiju]

Reformed north as i suspected and slowing down.

Maybe the models showing the northerly tracks that go over Hispaniola (or at least do not manage to hit the tallest mountain range in the island's center) are not completely out of their minds?

[SoupBone]

NHC 11PM:
"Thereafter, it appears likely that Grace will have to deal with
significant land interaction over Hispaniola and weakening is
indicated by 48 hours. If Grace survives, it is possible some modest
intensification could occur in the latter part of the forecast
period."

Interesting. So the current thinking is that land interaction would limit her overall development. I hate that Cuba might have to deal with it, but those beautiful mountains could really help.