ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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cheezyWXguy
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#581 Postby cheezyWXguy » Thu Jul 01, 2021 8:38 am

Interested to see if that tower to the SW of the llc can rotate in. It might be what this system needs to get stacked.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#582 Postby aspen » Thu Jul 01, 2021 8:40 am

Good old center reformations….at this rate, I don’t think we’ll have any good idea on Elsa’s exact trajectory until sometime Friday, or whenever it stacks.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#583 Postby eastcoastFL » Thu Jul 01, 2021 8:41 am

Images on tropical tidbits are way behind.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#584 Postby AutoPenalti » Thu Jul 01, 2021 8:42 am

I lost track of it but my best guess would be at 9.42°N 49.93°W, looks like a center reformation.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#585 Postby MississippiWx » Thu Jul 01, 2021 8:44 am

Aric Dunn wrote:THe center has very clearly tucked under the canopy.

https://i.ibb.co/HxdXf35/RE-20210701-131727-1.gif

https://i.ibb.co/31CLMzW/Capture.png


Agreed.

It appeared at first light this morning it was a good bit northwest of the convection. Looks like the convection has tugged it back a bit as the morning has progressed. The GFS implies this will be an issue for another day or so as the center continuously attempts to outrun the convection, but it might be able to become stacked more consistently on entry to the Caribbean.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#586 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Thu Jul 01, 2021 8:45 am

TallyTracker wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:THe center has very clearly tucked under the canopy.

https://i.ibb.co/HxdXf35/RE-20210701-131727-1.gif

https://i.ibb.co/31CLMzW/Capture.png


I see the center due north of that on the northwest side of convective burst. Look closely at the low-level clouds beneath the cirrus canopy and you can see the circulation.

That WAS the center. The center has relocated under the convection.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#587 Postby NDG » Thu Jul 01, 2021 8:49 am

The LLC is much closer to the deep convection than I had thought earlier this morning, or it has rotated around the mid level circulation.

Image
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#588 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Thu Jul 01, 2021 8:50 am

eastcoastFL wrote:Images on tropical tidbits are way behind.

The High rez visible is not behind
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#589 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Jul 01, 2021 8:50 am

So how is all that shear in the carrib going for everyone ?

Yesterday
Image

Now
Image
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#590 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Thu Jul 01, 2021 8:51 am

NDG wrote:The LLC is much closer to the deep convection than I had thought earlier this morning, or it has rotated around the mid level circulation.

https://i.imgur.com/v5g3YdN.gif


I think it is just a tad south of that much thats pretty close to where I have it
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#591 Postby AutoPenalti » Thu Jul 01, 2021 8:52 am

NDG wrote:The LLC is much closer to the deep convection than I had thought earlier this morning, or it has rotated around the mid level circulation.

https://i.imgur.com/v5g3YdN.gif

Actually, it's just barely southeast of that, if you follow the low-level cloud base swirl that's to the north, you can slightly determine where the LLC is, but at this point it's underneath the convection and I would not be surprised if this stacks by this afternoon.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#592 Postby ElectricStorm » Thu Jul 01, 2021 8:55 am

I don't really see this dying in the Caribbean. The only real issue I can see is the forward speed but I don't think that will cause it to open up, especially if it's able to stack later today like it looks like it wants to.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#593 Postby kevin » Thu Jul 01, 2021 8:56 am

Aric Dunn wrote:So how is all that shear in the carrib going for everyone ?

Yesterday
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht-8.GIF

Now
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.GIF


It's almost like the carrib is rolling out the red carpet for Elsa. Such low shear in early July is very anomalous right? Usually it's way higher if I recall correctly.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#594 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Thu Jul 01, 2021 8:56 am

I will say that this needs to start gaining some latitude or it isn't going to make it into the Caribbean
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#595 Postby HurricaneEnzo » Thu Jul 01, 2021 8:57 am

Weather Dude wrote:I don't really see this dying in the Caribbean. The only real issue I can see is the forward speed but I don't think that will cause it to open up, especially if it's able to stack later today like it looks like it wants to.


Agreed unless something drastically changes with the wind shear by then. The E Carib 'graveyard' is more for storms that are attempting to form an LLC. It already has an LLC established so I don't really see this dying either.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#596 Postby NDG » Thu Jul 01, 2021 8:59 am

I think this pass happened right before the deep convection to the east and the LLC relocated closer to the deep convection that had started blowing up.
Circulation a bit elongated E-W

Image
Last edited by NDG on Thu Jul 01, 2021 9:06 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#597 Postby HurricaneEnzo » Thu Jul 01, 2021 9:04 am

kevin wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:So how is all that shear in the carrib going for everyone ?

Yesterday
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht-8.GIF

Now
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.GIF


It's almost like the carrib is rolling out the red carpet for Elsa. Such low shear in early July is very anomalous right? Usually it's way higher if I recall correctly.


Yep, I hate to make this comparison but it is very 2005 in the Carib right now. The question is does this anomalously low wind shear continue for the rest of the season like 2005 or is this a short term thing. If it is this low for most of the season look out. It looked like the sleeping giant which is the Caribbean was awoken last season after being dormant, hopefully this isn't a continuation of that.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#598 Postby Stormybajan » Thu Jul 01, 2021 9:07 am

Well hello Tropical Storm Elsa!! Good news for us in the islands is that obviously, those HWRF runs from yesterday will bust badly and Elsa seems to be dealing with a bit of shear as others have alluded to. However it looks like she's trying to get that in check right now so in the next 4 hours it will be interesting to see what it looks like and with that rapid forward speed I am confident in saying rapid intensification chances are low, if Elsa intensifies it will most likely be a gradual thing.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#599 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Thu Jul 01, 2021 9:10 am

Interesting thread from wxtwitter.

 https://twitter.com/WxPatel/status/1410593052557811715


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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#600 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Thu Jul 01, 2021 9:10 am

Aric Dunn wrote:So how is all that shear in the carrib going for everyone ?

Yesterday
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht-8.GIF

Now
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.GIF

95L/what’s left of it putting in the work
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