ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion
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- cheezyWXguy
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Interested to see if that tower to the SW of the llc can rotate in. It might be what this system needs to get stacked.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Good old center reformations….at this rate, I don’t think we’ll have any good idea on Elsa’s exact trajectory until sometime Friday, or whenever it stacks.
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- eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Images on tropical tidbits are way behind.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
I lost track of it but my best guess would be at 9.42°N 49.93°W, looks like a center reformation.
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- MississippiWx
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Aric Dunn wrote:THe center has very clearly tucked under the canopy.
https://i.ibb.co/HxdXf35/RE-20210701-131727-1.gif
https://i.ibb.co/31CLMzW/Capture.png
Agreed.
It appeared at first light this morning it was a good bit northwest of the convection. Looks like the convection has tugged it back a bit as the morning has progressed. The GFS implies this will be an issue for another day or so as the center continuously attempts to outrun the convection, but it might be able to become stacked more consistently on entry to the Caribbean.
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- InfernoFlameCat
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
TallyTracker wrote:Aric Dunn wrote:THe center has very clearly tucked under the canopy.
https://i.ibb.co/HxdXf35/RE-20210701-131727-1.gif
https://i.ibb.co/31CLMzW/Capture.png
I see the center due north of that on the northwest side of convective burst. Look closely at the low-level clouds beneath the cirrus canopy and you can see the circulation.
That WAS the center. The center has relocated under the convection.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
The LLC is much closer to the deep convection than I had thought earlier this morning, or it has rotated around the mid level circulation.


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- ScottNAtlanta
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
eastcoastFL wrote:Images on tropical tidbits are way behind.
The High rez visible is not behind
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
So how is all that shear in the carrib going for everyone ?
Yesterday

Now

Yesterday
Now
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- ScottNAtlanta
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
NDG wrote:The LLC is much closer to the deep convection than I had thought earlier this morning, or it has rotated around the mid level circulation.
https://i.imgur.com/v5g3YdN.gif
I think it is just a tad south of that much thats pretty close to where I have it
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
NDG wrote:The LLC is much closer to the deep convection than I had thought earlier this morning, or it has rotated around the mid level circulation.
https://i.imgur.com/v5g3YdN.gif
Actually, it's just barely southeast of that, if you follow the low-level cloud base swirl that's to the north, you can slightly determine where the LLC is, but at this point it's underneath the convection and I would not be surprised if this stacks by this afternoon.
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- ElectricStorm
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
I don't really see this dying in the Caribbean. The only real issue I can see is the forward speed but I don't think that will cause it to open up, especially if it's able to stack later today like it looks like it wants to.
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Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Aric Dunn wrote:So how is all that shear in the carrib going for everyone ?
Yesterday
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht-8.GIF
Now
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.GIF
It's almost like the carrib is rolling out the red carpet for Elsa. Such low shear in early July is very anomalous right? Usually it's way higher if I recall correctly.
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- ScottNAtlanta
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
I will say that this needs to start gaining some latitude or it isn't going to make it into the Caribbean
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- HurricaneEnzo
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Weather Dude wrote:I don't really see this dying in the Caribbean. The only real issue I can see is the forward speed but I don't think that will cause it to open up, especially if it's able to stack later today like it looks like it wants to.
Agreed unless something drastically changes with the wind shear by then. The E Carib 'graveyard' is more for storms that are attempting to form an LLC. It already has an LLC established so I don't really see this dying either.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
I think this pass happened right before the deep convection to the east and the LLC relocated closer to the deep convection that had started blowing up.
Circulation a bit elongated E-W

Circulation a bit elongated E-W

Last edited by NDG on Thu Jul 01, 2021 9:06 am, edited 1 time in total.
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- HurricaneEnzo
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
kevin wrote:Aric Dunn wrote:So how is all that shear in the carrib going for everyone ?
Yesterday
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht-8.GIF
Now
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.GIF
It's almost like the carrib is rolling out the red carpet for Elsa. Such low shear in early July is very anomalous right? Usually it's way higher if I recall correctly.
Yep, I hate to make this comparison but it is very 2005 in the Carib right now. The question is does this anomalously low wind shear continue for the rest of the season like 2005 or is this a short term thing. If it is this low for most of the season look out. It looked like the sleeping giant which is the Caribbean was awoken last season after being dormant, hopefully this isn't a continuation of that.
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- Stormybajan
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Well hello Tropical Storm Elsa!! Good news for us in the islands is that obviously, those HWRF runs from yesterday will bust badly and Elsa seems to be dealing with a bit of shear as others have alluded to. However it looks like she's trying to get that in check right now so in the next 4 hours it will be interesting to see what it looks like and with that rapid forward speed I am confident in saying rapid intensification chances are low, if Elsa intensifies it will most likely be a gradual thing.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Aric Dunn wrote:So how is all that shear in the carrib going for everyone ?
Yesterday
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht-8.GIF
Now
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.GIF
95L/what’s left of it putting in the work
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I am by no means a professional. DO NOT look at my forecasts for official information or make decisions based on what I post.
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