ATL: IDA - Models

[Clearcloudz]

Out to 126 Hours

[grapealcoholic]

Another W LA lol

[Clearcloudz]

Louisiana look out below

[jabman98]

00Z GFS Shooting the GAP

That's...not good.

[grapealcoholic]

New orleans should start watching this one I think

[Keldeo1997]

Laura Back for more

[IcyTundra]

I hope for the sake of SW LA that the 00Z GFS doesn't verify. I mean seriously they are still recovering from Laura. The good thing for them is that the GFS has them getting hit 6 days out so it probably won't play out like that.

[cycloneye]

HWRF and HMON won't be running until the 06Z run right?

Check at 00z but the 06z is the time to come out.

[SoupBone]

This run would be a nightmare for Lake Charles. Thankfully, it's just a single run.

[Stormybajan]

Louisiana look out below

https://i.imgur.com/kjZ1u23.gif

Looks like GFS makes landfall as a 942 mb category 4 hurricane around the same area Hurricane Laura did last year..

[sma10]

Someone is going to be dealing with a big problem early next week.

[ElectricStorm]

Yikes that's... bad news for the areas hit by Laura

[SoupBone]

So the Euro looked like a crazy outlier earlier, but now the GFS basically moved way north toward it. Does the ridge just simply poof away? These runs really make no sense from last night's runs.

[IcyTundra]

GEFS will be interesting I wonder if the operational will be on the eastern end of the ensemble guidance.

[Clearcloudz]

Border of texas and Louisiana.

[grapealcoholic]

So the Euro looked like a crazy outlier earlier, but now the GFS basically moved way north toward it. Does the ridge just simply poof away? These runs really make no sense from last night's runs.

No the storm has been initializing stronger and much farther north. Worth remembering GFS has a weak bias for ridges, so this is probably corrects W

[IcyTundra]

So the Euro looked like a crazy outlier earlier, but now the GFS basically moved way north toward it. Does the ridge just simply poof away? These runs really make no sense from last night's runs.

I've heard the GFS has a tendency of underestimating ridging so maybe it is overcorrecting right now after being way south for several days.

[jaguars_22]

Starting to breathe a little better here on the central coast of Texas. But the models just keep going east… the question is when do they start coming back west… that’s the question

[grapealcoholic]

Looking at the carribean, it looks like the GFS wants a round two

[IcyTundra]

Starting to breathe a little better here on the central coast of Texas. But the models just keep going east… the question is when do they start coming back west… that’s the question

Oh trust this isn't over yet you are going see this models flip flop west and east for the next couple days. GFS has a tendency to underestimate ridging and could be overcorrecting after being a far south outlier for several days.