
ATL: IDA - Models
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- Clearcloudz
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- Clearcloudz
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
Louisiana look out below


Last edited by Clearcloudz on Tue Aug 24, 2021 11:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
I hope for the sake of SW LA that the 00Z GFS doesn't verify. I mean seriously they are still recovering from Laura. The good thing for them is that the GFS has them getting hit 6 days out so it probably won't play out like that.
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
IcyTundra wrote:HWRF and HMON won't be running until the 06Z run right?
Check at 00z but the 06z is the time to come out.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
This run would be a nightmare for Lake Charles. Thankfully, it's just a single run.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- Stormybajan
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
Looks like GFS makes landfall as a 942 mb category 4 hurricane around the same area Hurricane Laura did last year..

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
Someone is going to be dealing with a big problem early next week.
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- ElectricStorm
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
Yikes that's... bad news for the areas hit by Laura
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
So the Euro looked like a crazy outlier earlier, but now the GFS basically moved way north toward it. Does the ridge just simply poof away? These runs really make no sense from last night's runs.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
GEFS will be interesting I wonder if the operational will be on the eastern end of the ensemble guidance.
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- Clearcloudz
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
SoupBone wrote:So the Euro looked like a crazy outlier earlier, but now the GFS basically moved way north toward it. Does the ridge just simply poof away? These runs really make no sense from last night's runs.
No the storm has been initializing stronger and much farther north. Worth remembering GFS has a weak bias for ridges, so this is probably corrects W
Last edited by grapealcoholic on Tue Aug 24, 2021 11:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
SoupBone wrote:So the Euro looked like a crazy outlier earlier, but now the GFS basically moved way north toward it. Does the ridge just simply poof away? These runs really make no sense from last night's runs.
I've heard the GFS has a tendency of underestimating ridging so maybe it is overcorrecting right now after being way south for several days.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
Starting to breathe a little better here on the central coast of Texas. But the models just keep going east… the question is when do they start coming back west… that’s the question
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
Looking at the carribean, it looks like the GFS wants a round two


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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
jaguars_22 wrote:Starting to breathe a little better here on the central coast of Texas. But the models just keep going east… the question is when do they start coming back west… that’s the question
Oh trust this isn't over yet you are going see this models flip flop west and east for the next couple days. GFS has a tendency to underestimate ridging and could be overcorrecting after being a far south outlier for several days.
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