ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[kunosoura]

The rain, lighting, and gusty winds are intense tonight and hundreds of miles NE of Ian…

Yeah that was a decent set of cells that just passed through Jupiter that you now appear to be in the thick of. Stay safe.

[ThunderForce]

Where are you?

Key West. We are getting hammered

Please stay as safe as you can out there. I'm really worried about everyone in Ian's path right now.

[Blown Away]

INIT 27/2100Z 24.0N 83.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 25.3N 82.9W 115 KT 130 MPH

10pm Ian 24.6/82.9… At NNE Ian likely to be a little R of 82.9 at the 06z time?

[CryHavoc]

Given the tornadic activity, CAPE, and the unfortunate parallel to the coastline, Ian might make a run at some tornado records for a hurricane. Not a great thing at all.

[Kat5]

Seems to be slowing down and turning more due N

[ElectricStorm]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ian Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
1100 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022

...IAN EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, CATASTROPHIC
WINDS AND FLOODING IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.9N 82.9W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SW OF NAPLES FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES

[cheezyWXguy]

Seems to be having some trouble keeping that se eyewall closed. I wonder if these latest towers going around the bottom will fix that

[Blown Away]

Seems to be having some trouble keeping that se eyewall closed. I wonder if these latest towers going around the bottom will fix that

Thick eyewall on N side…

[hipshot]

Where are you?

Key West. We are getting hammered

Please stay safe. A visit to Key West is on my bucket list.

[Teban54]

Food for thought:

In its last 6 hours before the Cuba landfall, Ian intensified from 90 kts to officially 110 kts (+20 kts). Many people here speculated it might have been a low-end Cat 4 (115 kts) at landfall.

Ian is now 105 kts and still has 15 hours before landfall.

[ElectricStorm]

Updated cone

[KirbyDude25]

Food for thought:

In its last 6 hours before the Cuba landfall, Ian intensified from 90 kts to officially 110 kts (+20 kts). Many people here speculated it might have been a low-end Cat 4 (115 kts) at landfall.

Ian is now 105 kts and still has 15 hours before landfall.

I did hear about some shear and dry air, but I'm not sure how much of an effect that would have. Other than that, there's basically nothing in its way until landfall

[Jr0d]

Very interested to see what Key West Airport recorded with this last squall. Felt close to sustained hurricane winds for a few minutes.

These are roads, not canals.

[gailwarning]

Where are you?

Key West. We are getting hammered

Hope it eases up for you soon. This is what frustrates me: just because people aren't in the direct path does NOT mean they won't get significant effects. I know the mets try to convey that, but it seems to fall on deaf ears.

[ThunderForce]

It looks like Ian's moving at a snail's pace on Key West's IR radar right now. I don't see much, if any, movement.

[viberama]

https://i.imgur.com/QeJtLKS.gif
It looks like Ian's moving at a snail's pace on Key West's IR radar right now. I don't see much, if any, movement.

Yes, he's slowing down! Steering currents are subsiding.

[dpep4]

NHC continues to shift the track east/south, now crossing Bokeelia and Punta Gorda. Savannah second landfall.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphi ... k#contents

[FLpanhandle91]

That last east shift by the NHC would be absolutely devastating for Sanibel, Captiva, and Cape Coral.

[Craters]

Im probably 60nmiles from the center. This is intense. Gusts over 70mph easily. Would not be surprised if we have had gusts to 100mph.

Seawalls are breached. Surge is becoming a major problem. A lot of flooded areas. Some roads are easily waist deep.

Hang in there, Jr0d...

[edu2703]

Updated cone
https://i.imgur.com/rZ0exae.png

I don't like seeing Ian back in the Atlantic after crossing Florida, but I assume it will be a mess and not have enough time to reorganize and re-intensify before a landfall on the east coast.