T5.0 with LG eye surrounded W embedded LG.
EPAC: BONNIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion
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Yellow Evan
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Yellow Evan
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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Hurricane - Discussion
Appears to be undergoing an ERC again, which lines up with the eye contraction.
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Yellow Evan
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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Hurricane - Discussion
TXPZ25 KNES 042351
TCSENP
A. 02L (BONNIE)
B. 04/2330Z
C. 14.3N
D. 100.8W
E. ONE/GOES-E
F. T4.5/4.5
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...VIS IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD FILLED EYE. IN EIR IMAGERY, LG EYE
SURROUNDED BY BLACK AND EMBEDDED IN LG YIELDS E-NO OF 5.0 WITH EYE-ADJ
OF -0.5, THUS A DT OF 4.5. MET AND PT ARE 5.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...LEVINE
TCSENP
A. 02L (BONNIE)
B. 04/2330Z
C. 14.3N
D. 100.8W
E. ONE/GOES-E
F. T4.5/4.5
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...VIS IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD FILLED EYE. IN EIR IMAGERY, LG EYE
SURROUNDED BY BLACK AND EMBEDDED IN LG YIELDS E-NO OF 5.0 WITH EYE-ADJ
OF -0.5, THUS A DT OF 4.5. MET AND PT ARE 5.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...LEVINE
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Hurricane - Discussion
Up to 90kt.
EP, 04, 2022070500, , BEST, 0, 143N, 1008W, 90, 974, HU
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Yellow Evan
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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Hurricane - Discussion
Full outer eyewall still evident but seems to be contracting some.
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Hurricane - Discussion
Is now forecast to reach cat 3 on Tuesday morning.
12H 05/1200Z 15.1N 103.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Hurricane - Discussion
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Sciencerocks
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skyline385
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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Hurricane - Discussion
cycloneye wrote:Is now forecast to reach cat 3 on Tuesday morning.12H 05/1200Z 15.1N 103.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
Looks like they forgot to update the cone with the Major forecast
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ElectricStorm
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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Hurricane - Discussion
skyline385 wrote:cycloneye wrote:Is now forecast to reach cat 3 on Tuesday morning.12H 05/1200Z 15.1N 103.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
Looks like they forgot to update the cone with the Major forecast
No the updated forecast no longer has it reaching Cat 3
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Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.
Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.
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skyline385
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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Hurricane - Discussion
ElectricStorm wrote:skyline385 wrote:cycloneye wrote:Is now forecast to reach cat 3 on Tuesday morning.12H 05/1200Z 15.1N 103.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
Looks like they forgot to update the cone with the Major forecast
No the updated forecast no longer has it reaching Cat 3
Oh yea, i checked the forecast discussion before making that comment and somehow thought i saw a major in there. Guess that’s what i get for being here at 5.30 AM lol
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Yellow Evan
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InfernoFlameCat
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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Hurricane - Discussion
Yellow Evan wrote:https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/733552978572869632/993842234258624512/IMG_0195.jpg
T6.0 instantaneous DT.
Instantaneous 6.0 one could argue major status. Sustained 6.0 cat 4.
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I am by no means a professional. DO NOT look at my forecasts for official information or make decisions based on what I post.
Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.
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Yellow Evan
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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Hurricane - Discussion
TXPZ25 KNES 051206
TCSENP
A. 02L (BONNIE)
B. 05/1130Z
C. 15.1N
D. 103.6W
E. ONE/GOES-E
F. T6.0/6.0
G. IR/EIR/SWIR
H. REMARKS...DG EYE SURROUNDED BY W AND EMB IN B RESULTS IN DT OF 6.0
AFTER EYE ADJ OF 0.5. MET IS 5.5 AND PT IS 6.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...BROWN
TCSENP
A. 02L (BONNIE)
B. 05/1130Z
C. 15.1N
D. 103.6W
E. ONE/GOES-E
F. T6.0/6.0
G. IR/EIR/SWIR
H. REMARKS...DG EYE SURROUNDED BY W AND EMB IN B RESULTS IN DT OF 6.0
AFTER EYE ADJ OF 0.5. MET IS 5.5 AND PT IS 6.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...BROWN
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Yellow Evan
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Hurricane - Discussion
Cat 3.
EP, 04, 2022070512, , BEST, 0, 151N, 1037W, 100, 964, HU
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InfernoFlameCat
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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Hurricane - Discussion
Makes sense with the instantaneous 6.0 with a maintained 5.0+
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cheezyWXguy
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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Hurricane - Discussion
Given its progression through the ERC, I’m skeptical recon would actually find cat3 winds at this time, considering what double eye walls can do to flatten the pressure gradient. It’s understandable though since Dvorak is really all we have to go off of right now. Either way, if shear holds off long enough to let the new eye clear out there won’t be any more question that it’s a major
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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Hurricane - Discussion
I noticed on the NHC forecast track, that Bonnie weakens to a TS in a few days, is this a result of cooler water?
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