ATL: IAN - Models

[SFLcane]

Gfs back on an island on it’s own for now.

[jlauderdal]

00z eps…

https://i.postimg.cc/XYLQGBZq/38682-D47-DFF8-422-E-A5-BC-71-ACA3-A9-AF38.png

Classic gfs vs euro, they just see things differently and that's expected at this range, take the middle of the two solutions for now.

[aspen]

It’s so weird seeing the Euro and CMC being the NE/right-shifted models and the GFS being the SW/left-shifted model with 98L. Too early to tell if the GFS is going to be right about the track again and all the other models will correct towards it, or if it’s getting something wrong.

The 0z HWRF looks to split the difference between the globals and has a landfall on the very northernmost tip of the Yucatan, nearly missing land entirely and passing through the channel. It seems to be a little slower as well.

[3090]

Looking at the 500mb heights - Just not understanding how this does not go more N on the 06z GFS at hours 90-144

https://i.imgur.com/XtirmBH.gif

Because the GFS has a slow and low riding system deep south in the Caribbean. The more west it travels in the southern Caribbean the less effect the trough will have on it. For all intents, most of the models already had 98L developed into a storm and having gained a decent amount of latitude. It has continued to stay far south and has not intensified to TS status.

[tolakram]

Poor GFS, all by itself out west.

Here's the 200MB level, upper level forecast different (of course) for GFS and Euro.

[Blown Away]

00z eps…

https://i.postimg.cc/XYLQGBZq/38682-D47-DFF8-422-E-A5-BC-71-ACA3-A9-AF38.png

Classic gfs vs euro, they just see things differently and that's expected at this range, take the middle of the two solutions for now.

But when it comes to a forecasted CONUS landfall they will come together at some point and one of those models will be very wrong.

Interesting twist with 98L, not sure I can remember this much disagreement in the mid range between the two big models and both swapping their bias.

[caneseddy]

JB’s take

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1572877345387851776

[caneseddy]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1572911925284962307

[Blown Away]

06z HWRF... E shift through 80 hrs, coming close to Jamaica this run...

[caneman]

https://i.imgur.com/0OouWuT.gif
06z HWRF... E shift through 80 hrs, coming close to Jamaica this run...

Anyone able to tell what intensity HWRF takes it to?

[Blown Away]

https://i.imgur.com/0OouWuT.gif
06z HWRF... E shift through 80 hrs, coming close to Jamaica this run...

Anyone able to tell what intensity HWRF takes it to?

@90 hrs. 987 mb, solid Cat 1

[tolakram]

HWRF so far

[Weatherboy1]

00z eps…

https://i.postimg.cc/XYLQGBZq/38682-D47-DFF8-422-E-A5-BC-71-ACA3-A9-AF38.png

Classic gfs vs euro, they just see things differently and that's expected at this range, take the middle of the two solutions for now.

But when it comes to a forecasted CONUS landfall they will come together at some point and one of those models will be very wrong.

Interesting twist with 98L, not sure I can remember this much disagreement in the mid range between the two big models and both swapping their bias.

I tend to agree this is going to be more of a “one of these models is going to be a mega-bust” situation, vs. one where they (GFS and Euro) gradually come to the middle. Now that we’re getting closer to October Vs. August/early September, I tend to give more weight to the idea of a deeper trough/further south frontal push. So I’d lean more toward a euro-style solution here than GFS

[Ivanhater]

Meanwhile, the 06Z Hmon is coming in even further SW

[hurricane2025]

Man so much is at play here we just need a center crazy

[Jelmergraaff]

https://i.imgur.com/0OouWuT.gif
06z HWRF... E shift through 80 hrs, coming close to Jamaica this run...

Anyone able to tell what intensity HWRF takes it to?

At +99h a MH with 102 kts and a minimum pressure of 954 mb.

[Category5Kaiju]

JB’s take

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1572877345387851776?s=20&t=STaO4BpsP4LEbJbWJQvQsA

Genuinely curious, but when did this thing receive a name (he mentions “Hermine” it seems); I thought we had multiple areas competing for that name as well?

Anyhow, I really think unless a center forms, it’s basically up in the air regarding where this thing goes

[tolakram]

JB’s take

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1572877345387851776?s=20&t=STaO4BpsP4LEbJbWJQvQsA

Genuinely curious, but when did this thing receive a name (he mentions “Hermine” it seems); I thought we had multiple areas competing for that name as well?

Anyhow, I really think unless a center forms, it’s basically up in the air regarding where this thing goes

You will have to ask him but how about we don't start a conversation on a JB tweet please.

[SFLcane]

06z with a big shift north and east.

[Jr0d]

For all intents, most of the models already had 98L developed into a storm and having gained a decent amount of latitude. It has continued to stay far south and has not intensified to TS status.

None of the model showed significant development until this weekend, when the storm is south of Hispaniola. If its still to South America Saturday evening then we will have give the GFS credit.

Given the water near west Cuba and southern Gulf, this will have the potential to RI as it approaches the CONUS, Yucatan/Cuba so later development does not mean a weaker storm down the road.

That said, its looking a little better this morning, I was feeling a little silly to be so concerned about a disorganized cluster of showers. I don't expect a YD until Saturday.