SIO: FREDDY - Remnants

[cycloneye]

Making another run to cat 5.

[al78]

Once Freddy is finally done, the S Indian ocean season will possibly have close to normal ACE even if nothing formed for the rest of the season.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/BenCohenTC/status/1627085696975663106

[cycloneye]

Breaking News=Meteo-France upgrades to Very Intense Tropical Cyclone. JTWC goes up to 155 mph. 11S FREDDY 230219 0000 16.7S 67.0E SHEM 135 929

VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE number 7

(FREDDY)

Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 220 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 315 km/h.

Estimated pressure at the center: 931 hPa.

Position on February 19 at 04 local time: 16.7 South / 67.0 East.

Distance from the coast of Reunion: 1275 km to the sector: EAST-NORTH-EAST

Distance from Mayotte: 2390 km to the sector: EAST-SOUTH-EAST

Movement: WEST-SOUTH-WEST, at 22 km/h.

[ElectricStorm]

Welp, never really thought this would be one to become a serious land threat but here we are... Hopefully it's not to bad but it's looking nasty

[Iceresistance]

Welp, never really thought this would be one to become a serious land threat but here we are... Hopefully it's not to bad but it's looking nasty

Cyclone Leon-Eline did the same thing in 2000.

[cycloneye]

JTWC forecasts cat 5 for 12z on Sunday and after that, begins to weaken slowly.

[Meow]

Welp, never really thought this would be one to become a serious land threat but here we are... Hopefully it's not to bad but it's looking nasty

Cyclone Leon-Eline did the same thing in 2000.

Freddy is much stronger than Eline.

[Yellow Evan]

Dealing with southeasterly shear that is preventing further organization.

[Hurricane2022]

 https://twitter.com/xiaoqianWX/status/1627206315654397958

[Hurricane2022]

...Freddy is a powerful and robust Category 5 tropical cyclone. It also looks like it will soon become 100% annular.

I believe it has a good chance of reaching winds of up to 150 kt today.

[cycloneye]

VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE number 7

(FREDDY)

Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 220 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 315 km/h.

Estimated pressure at the center: 931 hPa.

Position on February 19 at 10 a.m. local time: 16.9 South / 65.6 East.

Distance from the coast of Reunion: 1125 km to the sector: EAST-NORTH-EAST

Distance from Mayotte: 2240 km to the sector: EAST-SOUTH-EAST

Movement: WEST, at 24 km/h.

[Hurricane2022]

Back to Category 4 (???)

11S FREDDY 230219 1200 17.4S 64.1E SHEM 130 934

[Iceresistance]

Welp, never really thought this would be one to become a serious land threat but here we are... Hopefully it's not to bad but it's looking nasty

Cyclone Leon-Eline did the same thing in 2000.

Freddy is much stronger than Eline.

Well, yes, but the only proper analog for a Tropical Cyclone that has remained mostly intact from the Australia region all the way to Madagascar and Africa is Leon-Eline.

[Teban54]

Back to Category 4 (???)

11S FREDDY 230219 1200 17.4S 64.1E SHEM 130 934

https://imageshack.com/i/pnTHGuKKp

I honestly don't see how that downgrade even makes sense:

[MarioProtVI]

This thing really is the SHEM’s equivalent of Irma, with the very long track, ACE machine, fluctuating intensity especially at the start and two separate C5 peaks. Insane.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1627311596690362368

[cycloneye]

Bulletin of February 19 at 7:08 p.m. local in Reunion (6:08 p.m. local in Mayotte):




VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE FREDDY

Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 220 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 315 km/h.

Estimated pressure at the center: 931 hPa.

Position on February 19 at 7 p.m. local Reunion: 17.5 South / 63.2 East.

Distance from the coast of Reunion: 875 km to the EAST-NORTH-EAST sector

Distance from Mayotte: 2010 km to the EAST-SOUTH-EAST sector

Movement: WEST-SOUTH-WEST, at 26 km/h.

[cycloneye]

Continues very impressive.

[cycloneye]

TXXS26 KNES 191829
TCSSIO
CCA

A. 11S (FREDDY)

B. 19/1730Z

C. 17.6S

D. 62.5E

E. ONE/MET-9

F. T6.5/6.5

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...COR FOR TYPO. LARGE STADIUM-EFFECT WMG EYE SURROUNDED
BY W AND EMBEDDED IN B RESULTS IN AN E# OF 5.5 WITH EADJ +1.0 FOR
A DT OF 6.5. OUTSTANDING SATELLITE PRESENTATION. ANNULAR STRUCTURE
CONTINUES. POLEWARD AND EQUATORIAL UPR-LVL OUTFLOW CHANNELS BECMG MORE
DEFINED. EYE TEMP +20 C. MET=6.5 AND PT=7.0. FT BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...KONON