ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

[Teban54]

First HAFS runs are not as crazy as the operational GFS. HAFS-A appears to keep it as a minimal TD/TS (if at all) until it gets to the Lesser Antilles, after which it strengthens slightly in the NE Caribbean:


HAFS-B is stronger overall, with a strong TS approaching the Lesser Antilles and ending the run almost as a hurricane:


Both HWRF and HMON are even stronger than HAFS-B, with a Cat 1 before the islands.

[Teban54]

0z EPS support is also growing for both 95L and the trailing wave.

[Blown Away]

06z GFS... Some models continue showing this SW dip over next 2-3 days. IMO this SW dip is a critical move that will heavily influence development down the road. The SW dip will likely keep 95L weaker into the Caribbean and S of the big islands, if this dip doesn't happen I think the northern route possibly into better UL conditions may happen?

[abajan]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/4Nk7sRhR/c3ea8cde-8077-4f7c-b562-117ac004684c.gif [/url]

06z GFS... Some models continue showing this SW dip over next 2-3 days. IMO this SW dip is a critical move that will heavily influence development down the road. The SW dip will likely keep 95L weaker into the Caribbean and S of the big islands, if this dip doesn't happen I think the northern route possibly into better UL conditions may happen?

That's a pretty pronounced dip. The Euro, and CMC (to a lesser extent), shows it too. Can't recall when last I've seen models show anything like that in the MDR east of the Antilles.

[Category5Kaiju]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/4Nk7sRhR/c3ea8cde-8077-4f7c-b562-117ac004684c.gif [/url]

06z GFS... Some models continue showing this SW dip over next 2-3 days. IMO this SW dip is a critical move that will heavily influence development down the road. The SW dip will likely keep 95L weaker into the Caribbean and S of the big islands, if this dip doesn't happen I think the northern route possibly into better UL conditions may happen?

That's a pretty pronounced dip. The Euro, and CMC (to a lesser extent), shows it too. Can't recall when last I've seen models show anything like that in the MDR east of the Antilles.

I think Elsa (2021), very slightly, featured this kind of dip. Irma did too

[SFLcane]

[LarryWx]

The 6Z EPS has 7 of its 51 get this into the Caribbean at sub 1000 mb/TS+. Two of the members get down to sub 985/H near Greater Antilles.

[Spacecoast]

FWIW...
0z EPS @168 hrs:
45-50% chance of TD.

10-20% chance of TS.


*note: on these charts, one or two members (<5%), are 'invisible'.

[SFLcane]

[Blown Away]

No signs of that SW dip. IMO that will allow for a track on the N side of the model envelope.

[abajan]

OOPS! Apologies for posting this in the models thread.
If it's possible for a mod to move it, please do so.

I think this loop speaks for itself. Suffice it to say that, should the current trend continue, we're likely looking at a TD or TS as soon as tonight.

[REDHurricane]

All 6z models showing a nice pocket of moisture around 52-55W even with the significant dry air to the north:

GFS


ECMWF


HAFS-A


HWRF


The only reason I can maybe see as to why only the Euro doesn't develop 95L is that it predicts this system to move just a bit faster compared to the others, leaving some of the moist mid-level air behind and entering a slightly less favorable wind shear environment?

GFS


ECMWF


HAFS-A


HWRF


I'm inclined to think this will probably develop into at least a weak TS before it gets to the Caribbean like the GFS/HAFS-A/HWRF/other hurricane models are predicting. Really warm water = more tropical cyclones, right?

[Ivanhater]

Curious to see if the 12z guidance latches on to the recent convective trend, at least in the short term.

[Spacecoast]

Small system, I think it's possible the global models may not be resolving it very well. .....

Not resolving (very well) at all.

[BobHarlem]

12z Icon is showing that dip too for tomorrow afternoon and Sunday.

[Ivanhater]

12z Icon is showing that dip too for tomorrow afternoon and Sunday.

Also coming in stronger so far with a strengthening TS coming into the Caribbean

[aspen]

Curious to see if the 12z guidance latches on to the recent convective trend, at least in the short term.

12z GFS still initializes very poorly and doesn’t develop.

[cycloneye]

HAFS-A at 989 mbs south of PR.



HAFS-B at 973 mbs south of Mona Channel.

[SFLcane]

HAFS-A at 989 mbs south of PR.

https://i.imgur.com/eb7QIKX.png

HAFS-B at 973 mbs south of Mona Channel.

https://i.imgur.com/IbdoN0v.png

Hurricane models really aren't best for invests...it's an interesting piece of info. Global models basically all kill it

[Nimbus]

Will likely need to be declared a TD fairly soon if that latest convective burst is the start of a trend.
About all we can say is its probably going to stay below hurricane strength and track west for now.
When the models track west of Jamaica we will know better if this is Pacific bound or gulf threat.