ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

[Teban54]

Looks like a skeleton.

https://i.imgur.com/0aW64ZC.gif

Definitely looks less vigorous than yesterday. The dry air is affecting it. They should probably reduce the 2-day development chance in the next TWO to 10%, if not 0%. Seven days is a long way out. So, I'd leave that at 70% for now, I guess.

And they upped it to 30%

[Teban54]

96L heard all the complaints about dry air and reacted with this:

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

The Apex of the wave is already closing in on 18N so still no danger for the islands.

Except that one island.

[Sciencerocks]

[Category5Kaiju]

And once again, we see a perfect example of how a dry tropical wave doesn't necessarily always have to stay as a dry tropical wave.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL96):
Disorganized cloudiness and showers located about 1000 miles
east-northeast of the Leeward Islands are associated with a
tropical wave and broad area of low pressure. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be favorable for gradual development of
this system during the next few days, and a tropical depression is
likely to form during the early part of next week. The disturbance
is expected to move northwestward at about 15 mph during the next
day or so, and then turn northward over the central subtropical
Atlantic by late Monday or Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

AL, 96, 2023073000, , BEST, 0, 191N, 471W, 25, 1013, DB

[Sciencerocks]

[abajan]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sun Jul 30 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL96):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located about 1000 miles
east-northeast of the Leeward Islands are associated with a
tropical wave and broad area of low pressure. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be favorable for gradual development of
this system during the next few days, and a tropical depression is
likely to form during the early part of the week. The disturbance
is expected to move northwestward at about 15 mph during the next
day or so, and then turn northward over the central subtropical
Atlantic by late Monday or Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Kelly/Beven

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWO:

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL96):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with
a broad area of low pressure located a little less than 1000 miles
east-northeast of the Leeward Islands. Environmental conditions are
forecast to be marginally favorable for gradual development of this
system during the next few days, and a tropical depression is likely
to form during the early part of this week. The system is expected
to move northwestward at about 15 mph during the next day or so, and
then turn northward over the central subtropical Atlantic by late
Monday or Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

[cycloneye]

AL, 96, 2023073012, , BEST, 0, 205N, 499W, 25, 1013, DB

[Teban54]

Looks like a broad rotation is being pulled north towards the western edge of the convection.

[Sciencerocks]

LLC developing near the western edge of the convection so it would only need only slight organization to be considered a depression. I think this has a pretty good chance at being named during the next couple of days.

[cycloneye]

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL96):
Shower and thunderstorm activity has become a little more
concentrated in association with an area of low pressure located
about 700 miles east-northeast of the Leeward Islands. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be marginally favorable for gradual
development of this system over the next few days, and a tropical
depression is likely to form during the early part of this week. The
system is expected to move northwestward at about 15 mph during the
next day or so, and then turn northward over the central subtropical
Atlantic by late Monday or Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

[cycloneye]

TXNT22 KNES 301822
TCSNTL

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (96L)

B. 30/1800Z

C. 21.4N

D. 51.0W

E. FIVE/GOES-E

F. T1.0/1.0

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...GREATER THAN 2/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 1.0. MET AND
PT ARE ALSO 1.0. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...CLARK

[aspen]

This is getting pretty close. The circulation still looks broad, but there has been a lot of consistent and very deep convection on the eastern edge of where the LLC seems to be forming. 96L’s 48hr odds should be up to code red by 8pm and we could have TS Emily tomorrow if this persists.

[Hurricane2022]

[Sciencerocks]

 https://twitter.com/VortixWx/status/1685765449298948096

[ChrisH-UK]

96L at sunset.

Red Band + Clean IR, Source - https://col.st/mKhtI

[ElectricStorm]

1. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL96):
Shower and thunderstorm activity has become a little more organized
in association with an area of low pressure located about 700 miles
east-northeast of the Leeward Islands. Environmental conditions are
forecast to be marginally favorable for development over the next
few days, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the
next day or so. The system is expected to move northwestward at
about 15 mph during the next day or so, and then turn northward
over the central subtropical Atlantic by late Monday or Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.