ATL: BRET - Remnants - Discussion

[Teban54]

Comparing imagery of TD3 to other June MDR systems.

Obviously we don't have anything for Trinidad 1933, which peaked as a Cat 2 in Caribbean and Gulf. As for those in the satellite era:

Bret 2017 at its peak:


Ana 1979 at its peak:


TD3 2023 right now:

[AnnularCane]

Not your typical June TD. Or even TS.

[GeauxTigers]

12Z GFS is finally coming around. Weakening TS enters the Caribbean then weakens to a depression or remnant low south of PR in about 5 days. Someone asked about Barbados - you won't see much out of it. A little rain and little wind south of the track. Wind will be about 20 mph less on the south side of the storm.

I’m flying to St John Wednesday. What can i expect out of this? Thank u!

[cycloneye]

Up to 2.5 on SSD Dvorak. Hello Bret.

A. 03L (NONAME)

B. 19/1730Z

C. 11.2N

D. 41.3W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T2.5/2.5

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...5/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 2.5. THE MET IS 1.5 AND
THE PT IS 2.0. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...BROWN

[NDG]

Three likely ends up in the islands as a minimal tropical storm. NHC forecast is overblown, imo. GFS downtrended significantly at 12z and shear only looks to rise with a 21 mph forward motion. EL NINO.

Fast trades and shear in June are not exactly uncommon.

Not to mention you have two developing systems in the MDR, which is the exact opposite of what one would expect in June.

My friend - I am just remindoing everyone that this is an El Nino. It isn't directly affecting Three as the atmosphere isn't coupled - yet

I'd recommend checking out the seasonal indicators thread on this. Right now Atlantic temperatures are the warmest ever recorded. That, combined with anomalously low SAL, is why we are seeing this insane surge of activity. This is not normal for June, no matter how you look at it.

I do understand the +AMO is incredibly strong as of now. But El nIno will win over warm surface temperatures in the Atlantic. You don't have to believe me, just wait until September rolls around and the Atlantic is SAL/shear stricken

Climate models, which so far are coming to fruition, don't agree with you.

[NDG]

Definitely looking like a Tropical Storm already with an improving outflow towards the south.

[tiger_deF]

The geographic proximity of 3L and 93L is fascinating to me. Can they both become named systems without interrupting the ventilation of one another?

[NDG]

The geographic proximity of 3L and 93L is fascinating to me. Can they both become named systems without interrupting the ventilation of one another?

According to models no problem, if anything a better environment left behind for 93L

[cycloneye]

Hello Bret.

AL, 03, 2023061918, , BEST, 0, 112N, 414W, 35, 1008, TS

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Bret 2017's record falls to... Bret 2023!

[Teban54]

Bret 2017's record falls to... Bret 2023!

According to Bret 2017's TCR, it became a TS (straight from a PTC) on June 19 at 1800z, exactly the same time as TD3 2023's upgrade. So now the record for June MDR storms at TS intensity is a tie between Bret 2017 and Bret 2023, with the latter being much further east.

I won't be surprised if Bret 2023's upgrade is revised to be earlier in its TCR, though. It has looked like a TS for several hours now.

[CrazyC83]

It definitely has the look of a solid tropical storm. No surprise for the upgrade.

[kevin]

At what point in Bret's lifetime could we expect any recon to be performed? Surely at least when it approaches the islands right if it's still a potent storm at that stage.

[zzzh]

Recon is scheduled at 18z Wednesday.

[aspen]

At what point in Bret's lifetime could we expect any recon to be performed? Surely at least when it approaches the islands right if it's still a potent storm at that stage.

I believe six-hourly fixes will start on Wednesday. That’s also the day I expect Bret to peak, as it would’ve had plenty of time to develop an inner core and it’ll have a good UL pattern that day before it starts feeling the UL trough on Thursday.

[TJRE]

info
ttps://hurricanecity.com/hebertbox.htm




time will tell

[cycloneye]

At what point in Bret's lifetime could we expect any recon to be performed? Surely at least when it approaches the islands right if it's still a potent storm at that stage.

On Wednesday afternoon plane will depart from St Croix and on Thursday, gonzo will fly to the upper atmosphere.

https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... 8#p3026218

[galaxy401]

Bret 2017's record falls to... Bret 2023!

Bret 2017 also followed Bret 1993 in track and area affected too. These names like to outdo each other.

[wxman57]

12Z GFS is finally coming around. Weakening TS enters the Caribbean then weakens to a depression or remnant low south of PR in about 5 days. Someone asked about Barbados - you won't see much out of it. A little rain and little wind south of the track. Wind will be about 20 mph less on the south side of the storm.

I’m flying to St John Wednesday. What can i expect out of this? Thank u!

Perhaps east wind 25-35 mph as it passes well to the south Thursday afternoon. Maybe 3-6 inches of rain, depending on what side of the island. We have it passing over Martinique around 4pm AST Thursday. Way faster than the GFS.

[msbee]

12Z GFS is finally coming around. Weakening TS enters the Caribbean then weakens to a depression or remnant low south of PR in about 5 days. Someone asked about Barbados - you won't see much out of it. A little rain and little wind south of the track. Wind will be about 20 mph less on the south side of the storm.

Agreed. I respect the folks at the NHC but I'm not sure what they're doing here.

NHC folks are demonstrating an abundance of caution. They don't want anyone in the islands to ignore this potential storm.

This is looking like it will go south of St Maarten. Like maybe close to Martinique or St Lucia. Would you agree, @wxman57?