ATL: IDALIA - Models

[aspen]

If the hurricane models are right, we should see rapid organization and eyewall development starting tomorrow morning as Idalia passes by Cuba and shear drops. The HWRF and HAFS-A/B show this lopsided look like a pressure in the upper 980s/lower 990s through the rest of the day today.

[robbielyn]

Intensity models have soared into Cat 2 territory from TS/1 they had been showing.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/stormin ... latest.png

Pretty unique setup for a NE Gulf hit with an intensifying til landfall hit which NHC is currently forecasting to be a major at landfall. You may not see this again (if their forecast verifies) the remainder of your life.

We don't want to see it at all lol.

[tolakram]

It's a ways out still but if this verifies northern FL, coastal GA, SC, NC need to be prepared. Lots of onshore winds and some surge to deal with.

[LandoWill]

What's so "crazy" by this consensus... if it's wrong by 30-50 miles to the east/south... this entire storm narrative changes

[MJGarrison]

What's so "crazy" by this consensus... if it's wrong by 30-50 miles to the east/south... this entire storm narrative changes

How do these early models work again? They just move the starting point and keep the same track from the earlier run, right?


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[Steve]

Intensity models have soared into Cat 2 territory from TS/1 they had been showing.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/stormin ... latest.png

Pretty unique setup for a NE Gulf hit with an intensifying til landfall hit which NHC is currently forecasting to be a major at landfall. You may not see this again (if their forecast verifies) the remainder of your life.

We don't want to see it at all lol.

Haha. And here we are with warm ass water up there in the Bend and strange pressure pattern that could allow for a once in a forever setup.

[FLLurker32]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/10L_tracks_12z.png What's so "crazy" by this consensus... if it's wrong by 30-50 miles to the east/south... this entire storm narrative changes

All it would take is a wobble along the way to change everything for this one.

[ronjon]

Important benchmark tomorrow. If the storm is centered at 25N-85W then it's in the middle of the model consensus. East of there, not good for Tampa northward. West of there, more of panhandle concern.

[chris_fit]

12Z ICON Goes slightly faster and W!

[chris_fit]

12z Icon

[ronjon]

Latest 11am NHC track centered on 06z Euro landfall near Steinhatchee (border of Dixie and Taylor Counties). Slight west adjustment from 5 am track.

[tolakram]

Forecast track for comparisons

[chris_fit]

12Z GFS Running

[eastcoastFL]

[chris_fit]

Same as 06z so far...

[chris_fit]

Same solution on the 12z GFS - No E Shifts.

[chris_fit]

12z CMC trending weaker and E

[Teban54]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/10L_intensity_latest.png

I'm hoping the downward trend in peak intensity (which shows the aggressiveness of the current NHC forecast) will play out, but that's probably wishful thinking, especially after seeing Franklin way overperforming model expectations today.

[Blown Away]

06z GFS… Consistently into Big Bend area. Franklin & Idalia at same pressure…

[chris_fit]

12Z CMC - Slightly East.