ATL: PHILIPPE - Models

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Iceresistance
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ATL: PHILIPPE - Models

#1 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Sep 21, 2023 2:56 pm

Only model runs here
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#2 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 21, 2023 3:00 pm

12z Euro is all recurve.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#3 Postby PavelGaborik10 » Thu Sep 21, 2023 4:55 pm

Very early but early signs certainly pointing to another recurve OTS
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#4 Postby PTrackerLA » Thu Sep 21, 2023 6:16 pm

18z GFS couldn't be a more 180 from 24 hrs ago. This model :roll: .

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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#5 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 21, 2023 8:10 pm

Image

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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#6 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 22, 2023 11:21 am

12z GFS continues to recurve sharply well away from the northern Leewards.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#7 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 22, 2023 11:31 am

12z CMC with the same recurving.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#8 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 22, 2023 11:33 am

12z UKMET the same with the recurving.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 90L ANALYSED POSITION : 15.3N 33.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL902023

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 22.09.2023 0 15.3N 33.3W 1010 26
0000UTC 23.09.2023 12 15.6N 36.4W 1010 27
1200UTC 23.09.2023 24 16.1N 39.4W 1010 28
0000UTC 24.09.2023 36 15.9N 42.2W 1010 28
1200UTC 24.09.2023 48 16.4N 45.0W 1010 27
0000UTC 25.09.2023 60 16.9N 47.8W 1010 28
1200UTC 25.09.2023 72 17.2N 50.2W 1009 28
0000UTC 26.09.2023 84 17.5N 52.2W 1009 31
1200UTC 26.09.2023 96 17.8N 53.7W 1007 33
0000UTC 27.09.2023 108 18.0N 54.6W 1005 37
1200UTC 27.09.2023 120 18.9N 55.8W 1004 42
0000UTC 28.09.2023 132 19.6N 57.4W 1002 44
1200UTC 28.09.2023 144 21.1N 57.9W 1002 37
0000UTC 29.09.2023 156 22.5N 57.7W 1001 34
1200UTC 29.09.2023 168 23.8N 57.7W 1001 35
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#9 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 22, 2023 2:07 pm

The 12z ECMWF has the same recurving scenario.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#10 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 22, 2023 8:26 pm

The consensus of recurving continues strong.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#11 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 23, 2023 8:31 am

Models are not as bullish on this 12z run.

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Re: ATL: SEVENTEEN - Models

#12 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 23, 2023 11:19 am

12z GFS not as bullish in 5 days, but later it has it stronger north of 30N.

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Re: ATL: PHILIPPE - Models

#13 Postby blp » Sun Sep 24, 2023 1:54 am

What is the Euro doing no recurve dives under the ridge :eek: Need to see confirmation on next run.

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Re: ATL: PHILIPPE - Models

#14 Postby Ianswfl » Sun Sep 24, 2023 1:59 am

blp wrote:What is the Euro doing no recurve dives under the ridge :eek: Need to see confirmation on next run.

https://i.ibb.co/Qd32cDg/ec-fast-uv850-vort-atl-fh48-216.gif


Not much left though and dives towards Hispaniola. Now if it's stronger and stays just offshore and heads west then it's an issue.

Ensembles are going to be interesting
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Re: ATL: PHILIPPE - Models

#15 Postby LarryWx » Sun Sep 24, 2023 3:16 am

Ianswfl wrote:
blp wrote:What is the Euro doing no recurve dives under the ridge :eek: Need to see confirmation on next run.

https://i.ibb.co/Qd32cDg/ec-fast-uv850-vort-atl-fh48-216.gif


Not much left though and dives towards Hispaniola. Now if it's stronger and stays just offshore and heads west then it's an issue.

Ensembles are going to be interesting


Euro ens says the op is an outlier and has hardly any threatening members to the CONUS or any land for that matter through 360 from any TC. However, I still think a potential home brew via ridge over troubled waters setup part 2 (Ophelia was part 1) bears watching for the W Car, GOM, or SW Atlantic.
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Re: ATL: PHILIPPE - Models

#16 Postby kevin » Sun Sep 24, 2023 9:13 am

HWRF still believes in Philippe.

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Re: ATL: PHILIPPE - Models

#17 Postby Teban54 » Sun Sep 24, 2023 10:36 am

LarryWx wrote:
Ianswfl wrote:
blp wrote:What is the Euro doing no recurve dives under the ridge :eek: Need to see confirmation on next run.

https://i.ibb.co/Qd32cDg/ec-fast-uv850-vort-atl-fh48-216.gif


Not much left though and dives towards Hispaniola. Now if it's stronger and stays just offshore and heads west then it's an issue.

Ensembles are going to be interesting


Euro ens says the op is an outlier and has hardly any threatening members to the CONUS or any land for that matter through 360 from any TC. However, I still think a potential home brew via ridge over troubled waters setup part 2 (Ophelia was part 1) bears watching for the W Car, GOM, or SW Atlantic.

Uncertainty grows after that point, with the
track seemingly dependent on the intensity. A stronger system
would probably turn northward, like the GFS/HWRF/HMON models, while
a weaker one, like the UKMET/ECMWF solutions, would take a left
turn under the low-level subtropical ridge.
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Re: ATL: PHILIPPE - Models

#18 Postby WalterWhite » Sun Sep 24, 2023 10:39 am

kevin wrote:HWRF still believes in Philippe.

https://i.imgur.com/wydDZRb.png


I would not call that "believing in Philippe", especially given that it does not take the storm to major hurricane status.
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Re: ATL: PHILIPPE - Models

#19 Postby Teban54 » Sun Sep 24, 2023 11:00 am

WalterWhite wrote:
kevin wrote:HWRF still believes in Philippe.

https://i.imgur.com/wydDZRb.png


I would not call that "believing in Philippe", especially given that it does not take the storm to major hurricane status.

It does count when most intensity guidance and the NHC forecast don't even make this a hurricane.
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Re: ATL: PHILIPPE - Models

#20 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 24, 2023 12:00 pm

12z GFS a little bit more stronger.

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