ATL: PHILIPPE - Models

[Iceresistance]

Only model runs here

[cycloneye]

12z Euro is all recurve.

[PavelGaborik10]

Very early but early signs certainly pointing to another recurve OTS

[PTrackerLA]

18z GFS couldn't be a more 180 from 24 hrs ago. This model .

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

12z GFS continues to recurve sharply well away from the northern Leewards.

[cycloneye]

12z CMC with the same recurving.

[cycloneye]

12z UKMET the same with the recurving.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 90L ANALYSED POSITION : 15.3N 33.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL902023

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 22.09.2023 0 15.3N 33.3W 1010 26
0000UTC 23.09.2023 12 15.6N 36.4W 1010 27
1200UTC 23.09.2023 24 16.1N 39.4W 1010 28
0000UTC 24.09.2023 36 15.9N 42.2W 1010 28
1200UTC 24.09.2023 48 16.4N 45.0W 1010 27
0000UTC 25.09.2023 60 16.9N 47.8W 1010 28
1200UTC 25.09.2023 72 17.2N 50.2W 1009 28
0000UTC 26.09.2023 84 17.5N 52.2W 1009 31
1200UTC 26.09.2023 96 17.8N 53.7W 1007 33
0000UTC 27.09.2023 108 18.0N 54.6W 1005 37
1200UTC 27.09.2023 120 18.9N 55.8W 1004 42
0000UTC 28.09.2023 132 19.6N 57.4W 1002 44
1200UTC 28.09.2023 144 21.1N 57.9W 1002 37
0000UTC 29.09.2023 156 22.5N 57.7W 1001 34
1200UTC 29.09.2023 168 23.8N 57.7W 1001 35

[cycloneye]

The 12z ECMWF has the same recurving scenario.

[cycloneye]

The consensus of recurving continues strong.

[cycloneye]

Models are not as bullish on this 12z run.

[cycloneye]

12z GFS not as bullish in 5 days, but later it has it stronger north of 30N.

[blp]

What is the Euro doing no recurve dives under the ridge Need to see confirmation on next run.

[Ianswfl]

What is the Euro doing no recurve dives under the ridge Need to see confirmation on next run.

https://i.ibb.co/Qd32cDg/ec-fast-uv850-vort-atl-fh48-216.gif

Not much left though and dives towards Hispaniola. Now if it's stronger and stays just offshore and heads west then it's an issue.

Ensembles are going to be interesting

[LarryWx]

What is the Euro doing no recurve dives under the ridge Need to see confirmation on next run.

https://i.ibb.co/Qd32cDg/ec-fast-uv850-vort-atl-fh48-216.gif

Not much left though and dives towards Hispaniola. Now if it's stronger and stays just offshore and heads west then it's an issue.

Ensembles are going to be interesting

Euro ens says the op is an outlier and has hardly any threatening members to the CONUS or any land for that matter through 360 from any TC. However, I still think a potential home brew via ridge over troubled waters setup part 2 (Ophelia was part 1) bears watching for the W Car, GOM, or SW Atlantic.

[kevin]

HWRF still believes in Philippe.

[Teban54]

What is the Euro doing no recurve dives under the ridge Need to see confirmation on next run.

https://i.ibb.co/Qd32cDg/ec-fast-uv850-vort-atl-fh48-216.gif

Not much left though and dives towards Hispaniola. Now if it's stronger and stays just offshore and heads west then it's an issue.

Ensembles are going to be interesting

Euro ens says the op is an outlier and has hardly any threatening members to the CONUS or any land for that matter through 360 from any TC. However, I still think a potential home brew via ridge over troubled waters setup part 2 (Ophelia was part 1) bears watching for the W Car, GOM, or SW Atlantic.

Uncertainty grows after that point, with the
track seemingly dependent on the intensity. A stronger system
would probably turn northward, like the GFS/HWRF/HMON models, while
a weaker one, like the UKMET/ECMWF solutions, would take a left
turn under the low-level subtropical ridge.

[WalterWhite]

HWRF still believes in Philippe.

https://i.imgur.com/wydDZRb.png

I would not call that "believing in Philippe", especially given that it does not take the storm to major hurricane status.

[Teban54]

HWRF still believes in Philippe.

https://i.imgur.com/wydDZRb.png

I would not call that "believing in Philippe", especially given that it does not take the storm to major hurricane status.

It does count when most intensity guidance and the NHC forecast don't even make this a hurricane.

[cycloneye]

12z GFS a little bit more stronger.