ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[hurricaneCW]

The surge will be very impactful and far reaching

[TomballEd]

I see ~982 mb, getting to the other side, 60 knot FL winds. I think looking at where the AC center is and satellite, Helene's center may not come ashore in the NE Yucatan. It should be a hurricane at the next full advisory if I had to guess.

[LandoWill]

another shift west, more to come?

[eastcoastFL]

These recon flights are still not measuring rain rates, any idea why? Is it just not showing up on TT?

For whatever reason (equipment problems?) they are not running SFMR, they use the rain rate on the equipment to flag suspect readings.

Thank you. Hopefully they get that worked out. Those readings are helpful.

[LCfromFL]

South Florida with a TS warning.

 https://x.com/NWSMiami/status/1838876702124208481

I didn’t expect to wake up to the entire state covered in warnings and watches. I guess schools will probably be closed tomorrow. My teenagers are already up this morning checking for school closures.

Ahhhhhh...hope springs eternal!

[LandoWill]

Weather radio coincided with my alarm this morning: Tropical Storm warning now for Miami Dade as well

I saw a snarky tweet from one of our local mets about not being under any watch/warning last night as the intensity cycle was underway. I was looking at the wind fields for later tonight and tomorrow and was surprised they didn't have at least a watch, they went straight to a warning instead. I dont recall seeing this much of the state watch/warned..maybe irma. This a surge/wind event,hopefully those people get out of the way of surge. They evacuated all of Taylor's country in preparation.

It feels like none of the multiple storms that have passed off the FL west coast recently have had any effects on the east coast except far flung outer showers. Couldn't even call them bands. This time is different apparently. A full state storm inbound?

no, even our rather conservative tampa met guy said only along the coast and as you go inland less and less, Along the coast sure you may get tropical storm, say east of US19 just another windy November shower day, instead it won't be getting cool afterward.

[eastcoastFL]

another shift west, more to come?

What shifted west?

[xironman]

These recon flights are still not measuring rain rates, any idea why? Is it just not showing up on TT?

For whatever reason (equipment problems?) they are not running SFMR, they use the rain rate on the equipment to flag suspect readings.

Thank you. Hopefully they get that worked out. Those readings are helpful.

The equipment is working with the AF

[3090]

South Florida with a TS warning.

 https://x.com/NWSMiami/status/1838876702124208481

I didn’t expect to wake up to the entire state covered in warnings and watches. I guess schools will probably be closed tomorrow. My teenagers are already up this morning checking for school closures.

Ahhhhhh...hope springs eternal!

It is due to the forecast size and intensity. General track has not changed. The larger it gets along with intensity the more coast line areas will feel some impact. Pretty simple.

[xironman]

I saw a snarky tweet from one of our local mets about not being under any watch/warning last night as the intensity cycle was underway. I was looking at the wind fields for later tonight and tomorrow and was surprised they didn't have at least a watch, they went straight to a warning instead. I dont recall seeing this much of the state watch/warned..maybe irma. This a surge/wind event,hopefully those people get out of the way of surge. They evacuated all of Taylor's country in preparation.

It feels like none of the multiple storms that have passed off the FL west coast recently have had any effects on the east coast except far flung outer showers. Couldn't even call them bands. This time is different apparently. A full state storm inbound?

no, even our rather conservative tampa met guy said only along the coast and as you go inland less and less, Along the coast sure you may get tropical storm, say east of US19 just another windy November shower day, instead it won't be getting cool afterward.

The NHC specifically mentioned that due to the forward speed of the storm that effects would be brought further inland

Helene's wind field is predicted to grow to a very large size in the
NHC forecast. Therefore storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts
will likely extend well away from the center and outside the
forecast cone, particularly on the east side. In addition, the fast
forward speed while Helene crosses the coast will likely result in
farther inland penetration of strong winds over parts of the
southeastern United States after landfall.

[3090]

The surge will be very impactful and far reaching

To many coastal areas as far west as Mississippi. Hurricane Katrina with her size had coastal effects all the way east into the Florida big bend area with the amount of water she was pushing.

[GCANE]

GFS is forecasting the mid CONUS trof to evolve into a cutoff low as Helene approaches landfall.
Also, the massive high TPW feed from the EPAC will continue all the way to landfall.

[Jr0d]

Cuba's Bajada radar shows Helene has made the north turn. Soon the hurricane hunters should confirm this and tell is how much if any easterly component she has.

http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... AXw01a.gif

[CronkPSU]

another shift west, more to come?

Not sure what you are looking at, nothing has really shifted the past 13 hours, if anything, very slight nudges to the right/east

[caneman]

Cuba's Bajada radar shows Helene has made the north turn. Soon the hurricane hunters should confirm this and tell is how much if any easterly component she has.

http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... AXw01a.gif

Look to be on the eastern side of the cone now for the last several hours

[aspen]

Based on that center fix, Helene is going to have a very close call with the tip of the Yucatan, but it seems like it may avoid a direct landfall.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Based on that center fix, Helene is going to have a very close call with the tip of the Yucatan, but it seems like it may avoid a direct landfall.

That area is so flat it won't affect the organization either way

[ROCK]

Based on that center fix, Helene is going to have a very close call with the tip of the Yucatan, but it seems like it may avoid a direct landfall.

was that scenter fix 981? being lazy plus I just got up...

[cheezyWXguy]

Wind field is massively improved since last night. Wonder how strong this will get today.

[kevin]

The AF309 plane also made a pass, 978.8 mbar extrapolated. A dropsonde measured 981 mbar with 22 kt winds so I'd put the current pressure at 979 mbar. They also measured 64 kt FL winds and 54 kt SFMR. Combining the data of all recon so far I'd put the current intensity at 979 mbar / 60 kt.