ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical - Discussion
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
The surge will be very impactful and far reaching
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
I see ~982 mb, getting to the other side, 60 knot FL winds. I think looking at where the AC center is and satellite, Helene's center may not come ashore in the NE Yucatan. It should be a hurricane at the next full advisory if I had to guess.
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- eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
xironman wrote:eastcoastFL wrote:These recon flights are still not measuring rain rates, any idea why? Is it just not showing up on TT?
For whatever reason (equipment problems?) they are not running SFMR, they use the rain rate on the equipment to flag suspect readings.
Thank you. Hopefully they get that worked out. Those readings are helpful.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: HELENE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
eastcoastFL wrote:
I didn’t expect to wake up to the entire state covered in warnings and watches. I guess schools will probably be closed tomorrow. My teenagers are already up this morning checking for school closures.
Ahhhhhh...hope springs eternal!

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Re: ATL: HELENE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
toad strangler wrote:jlauderdal wrote:ObsessedMiami wrote:Weather radio coincided with my alarm this morning: Tropical Storm warning now for Miami Dade as well
I saw a snarky tweet from one of our local mets about not being under any watch/warning last night as the intensity cycle was underway. I was looking at the wind fields for later tonight and tomorrow and was surprised they didn't have at least a watch, they went straight to a warning instead. I dont recall seeing this much of the state watch/warned..maybe irma. This a surge/wind event,hopefully those people get out of the way of surge. They evacuated all of Taylor's country in preparation.
It feels like none of the multiple storms that have passed off the FL west coast recently have had any effects on the east coast except far flung outer showers. Couldn't even call them bands. This time is different apparently. A full state storm inbound?
no, even our rather conservative tampa met guy said only along the coast and as you go inland less and less, Along the coast sure you may get tropical storm, say east of US19 just another windy November shower day, instead it won't be getting cool afterward.
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- eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
LandoWill wrote:another shift west, more to come?
What shifted west?
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: HELENE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
eastcoastFL wrote:xironman wrote:eastcoastFL wrote:These recon flights are still not measuring rain rates, any idea why? Is it just not showing up on TT?
For whatever reason (equipment problems?) they are not running SFMR, they use the rain rate on the equipment to flag suspect readings.
Thank you. Hopefully they get that worked out. Those readings are helpful.
The equipment is working with the AF
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
LCfromFL wrote:eastcoastFL wrote:
I didn’t expect to wake up to the entire state covered in warnings and watches. I guess schools will probably be closed tomorrow. My teenagers are already up this morning checking for school closures.
Ahhhhhh...hope springs eternal!
It is due to the forecast size and intensity. General track has not changed. The larger it gets along with intensity the more coast line areas will feel some impact. Pretty simple.
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
LandoWill wrote:toad strangler wrote:jlauderdal wrote:I saw a snarky tweet from one of our local mets about not being under any watch/warning last night as the intensity cycle was underway. I was looking at the wind fields for later tonight and tomorrow and was surprised they didn't have at least a watch, they went straight to a warning instead. I dont recall seeing this much of the state watch/warned..maybe irma. This a surge/wind event,hopefully those people get out of the way of surge. They evacuated all of Taylor's country in preparation.
It feels like none of the multiple storms that have passed off the FL west coast recently have had any effects on the east coast except far flung outer showers. Couldn't even call them bands. This time is different apparently. A full state storm inbound?
no, even our rather conservative tampa met guy said only along the coast and as you go inland less and less, Along the coast sure you may get tropical storm, say east of US19 just another windy November shower day, instead it won't be getting cool afterward.
The NHC specifically mentioned that due to the forward speed of the storm that effects would be brought further inland
Helene's wind field is predicted to grow to a very large size in the
NHC forecast. Therefore storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts
will likely extend well away from the center and outside the
forecast cone, particularly on the east side. In addition, the fast
forward speed while Helene crosses the coast will likely result in
farther inland penetration of strong winds over parts of the
southeastern United States after landfall.
NHC forecast. Therefore storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts
will likely extend well away from the center and outside the
forecast cone, particularly on the east side. In addition, the fast
forward speed while Helene crosses the coast will likely result in
farther inland penetration of strong winds over parts of the
southeastern United States after landfall.
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
hurricaneCW wrote:The surge will be very impactful and far reaching
To many coastal areas as far west as Mississippi. Hurricane Katrina with her size had coastal effects all the way east into the Florida big bend area with the amount of water she was pushing.
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
GFS is forecasting the mid CONUS trof to evolve into a cutoff low as Helene approaches landfall.
Also, the massive high TPW feed from the EPAC will continue all the way to landfall.
Also, the massive high TPW feed from the EPAC will continue all the way to landfall.
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Cuba's Bajada radar shows Helene has made the north turn. Soon the hurricane hunters should confirm this and tell is how much if any easterly component she has.
http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... AXw01a.gif
http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... AXw01a.gif
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
LandoWill wrote:another shift west, more to come?
Not sure what you are looking at, nothing has really shifted the past 13 hours, if anything, very slight nudges to the right/east
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Just like Jon Snow..."I know nothing" except what I know, and most of what I know is gathered by the fine people of the NHC
Re: ATL: HELENE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Jr0d wrote:Cuba's Bajada radar shows Helene has made the north turn. Soon the hurricane hunters should confirm this and tell is how much if any easterly component she has.
http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... AXw01a.gif
Look to be on the eastern side of the cone now for the last several hours
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Based on that center fix, Helene is going to have a very close call with the tip of the Yucatan, but it seems like it may avoid a direct landfall.
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I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
aspen wrote:Based on that center fix, Helene is going to have a very close call with the tip of the Yucatan, but it seems like it may avoid a direct landfall.
That area is so flat it won't affect the organization either way
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
aspen wrote:Based on that center fix, Helene is going to have a very close call with the tip of the Yucatan, but it seems like it may avoid a direct landfall.
was that scenter fix 981? being lazy plus I just got up...
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- cheezyWXguy
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Wind field is massively improved since last night. Wonder how strong this will get today.
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
The AF309 plane also made a pass, 978.8 mbar extrapolated. A dropsonde measured 981 mbar with 22 kt winds so I'd put the current pressure at 979 mbar. They also measured 64 kt FL winds and 54 kt SFMR. Combining the data of all recon so far I'd put the current intensity at 979 mbar / 60 kt.
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