ATL: SARA - Remnants - Discussion

[HurricaneBelle]

Have a hard time believing this will get to the Tampa/Sarasota latitude where it would be sheared apart, seems like if were to hit FL it would be more of a SWFL impact a la Wilma.

I could be wrong of course but hope not (nor do I hope it hits SWFL).

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Unfortunately I feel the same way, thought I had gotten through this season good compared to the folks north and west of me.

[SFLcane]

 https://x.com/DylanFedericoWX/status/1856425975325601809

[galaxy401]

I mean it is October 12th right now so these type of storms need to be watched.


(This season has been a month behind on everything since September. There will probably be a storm in December at this rate.)

[AutoPenalti]

I mean it is October 12th right now so these type of storms need to be watched.


(This season has been a month behind on everything since September. There will probably be a storm in December at this rate.)

You're a month behind.

[Weathertracker96]

What day does everyone think we will know for sure where this may go and what this will do?

[fci]

AccuWeather

https://youtu.be/yy_F7f4KgtA?si=iedgKzvC7pibX_Ll

An excellently put together discussion on potential Sarah.
Certainly does not make us in South Florida feel very good about the possible Wilma 2.0

[SFLcane]

AccuWeather

https://youtu.be/yy_F7f4KgtA?si=iedgKzvC7pibX_Ll

An excellently put together discussion on potential Sarah.
Certainly does not make us in South Florida feel very good about the possible Wilma 2.0

Hey fci, just noticed your in Lake Worth! i am in lake worth also about 5 min from wellington

[galaxy401]

I mean it is October 12th right now so these type of storms need to be watched.


(This season has been a month behind on everything since September. There will probably be a storm in December at this rate.)

You're a month behind.

Yeah that's the joke. Season is running a month behind throughout.

[xironman]

Looks like go time

[aspen]

Looks like go time

https://i.imgur.com/shjMnTC.gif

Matching fairly well with the 18z GFS simulated IR. The GFS may be onto something.

[Dean_175]

Im surprised there isnt a 5pm update from NHC regarding this system, but I suppose not much has changed.

[Teban54]

Im surprised there isnt a 5pm update from NHC regarding this system, but I suppose not much has changed.

Advisory times are actually 4am/pm and 10am/pm Eastern now, since we've switched to standard time but NHC's advisory cycles remain the same in terms of UTC. Regardless, TWO updates for systems that are not TCs or PTCs only come at 1am/pm and 7am/pm EST (2am/pm and 8am/pm EDT), so still an hour to go.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Im surprised there isnt a 5pm update from NHC regarding this system, but I suppose not much has changed.

It's not a PTC or TC so there wouldn't be a 5pm update; only 7am, 1pm, 7pm, and 1am.

[Pasmorade]

Central and Western Caribbean Sea (AL99):
Showers and thunderstorms over the central Caribbean Sea have become
more organized in associated with a broad area of low pressure.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for development, and a
tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of days
while the system moves slowly westward into the western Caribbean
Sea. Afterward, further development is likely while the disturbance
meanders over the western Caribbean Sea through the weekend. The
system is forecast begin moving slowly northwestward by early next
week. Interests across the western and northwestern Caribbean Sea
should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of
development, heavy rains are expected over Jamaica and portions of
Haiti during the next day or so.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[Teban54]

[SconnieCane]

Strong consensus this is going to be the system that pushes us into hyperactive territory, and quite solidly at that.

[kevin]

Some nearby pressure measurements in the Caribbean are finding sea-level pressures of 1006 - 1008 mb. Difficult to say whether this is just the background pressure or whether it's influenced by 99L in any way. Either way, I think this is more similar to the situation GFS is coming with since the Euro and ICON still have this above or around 1010 mb for the next 24 hours. Furthermore, while no measurements seem to be present at or very close to 99L, nearby ships/buoys have measured gusts up to 46 kmh (25 kt) and 10-minute wind speeds of 35 kmh (20 kt) within the last 6 hours.

[cycloneye]

Any recent ASCAT to see how is the structure?

[WaveBreaking]

Some nearby pressure measurements in the Caribbean are finding sea-level pressures of 1006 - 1008 mb. Difficult to say whether this is just the background pressure or whether it's influenced by 99L in any way.

It’s mainly background pressure per the Euro and GFS analyses.