ATL: HELENE - Models

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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#261 Postby TomballEd » Mon Sep 23, 2024 11:09 am

HAFS A abd B don't have perfect data, but they are predicting Cat 4, we'll see if aircraft data changes that for the 18Z and 00Z rubs, I don't expect a Cat 5, but it can't be completely ruled out.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#262 Postby tolakram » Mon Sep 23, 2024 11:09 am

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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#263 Postby tolakram » Mon Sep 23, 2024 11:10 am

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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#264 Postby robbielyn » Mon Sep 23, 2024 11:11 am

ICON has John crossing over and after Helene is gone it hits panama city or just west of there as a 1009 low.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#265 Postby tolakram » Mon Sep 23, 2024 11:14 am

:lol:

 https://x.com/iCyclone/status/1838108523701342363

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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#266 Postby toad strangler » Mon Sep 23, 2024 11:25 am

Still a pretty wide spread on the 12z GFS ensembles. A distinct grouping EAST in the Steinhatchee area and WEST Apalachicola to Pensacola..ish
It's complicated
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#267 Postby Blown Away » Mon Sep 23, 2024 11:28 am

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GFS Trend… Past few runs GFS seems to be moving away from this Fujiwara and burying into the CONUS towards a typical NE recurve…
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#268 Postby HurricaneBelle » Mon Sep 23, 2024 11:37 am



Right now the models are lining up for another predawn (Thursday AM) landfall in....Perry, much to Josh's chagrin (and the folks there of course)
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#269 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Mon Sep 23, 2024 11:38 am

Does seem the 12z runs have stopped shifting as much; might indicate a more locked in solution.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#270 Postby toad strangler » Mon Sep 23, 2024 11:46 am

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Does seem the 12z runs have stopped shifting as much; might indicate a more locked in solution.


The 12z GFS ensembles aren't in agreement with the op so much. Pretty wide swath from E LA to Tampa. But focus Pensacola to Cedar Key.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#271 Postby lovingseason2013 » Mon Sep 23, 2024 11:51 am

Im sorry for the slightly off topic post, but why doesn't anyone post the models here anymore? Seems mostly about discussing a certain model but without any visual. Thanks
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#272 Postby AutoPenalti » Mon Sep 23, 2024 11:58 am

lovingseason2013 wrote:Im sorry for the slightly off topic post, but why doesn't anyone post the models here anymore? Seems mostly about discussing a certain model but without any visual. Thanks

There's model posts right above this and more a page back.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#273 Postby toad strangler » Mon Sep 23, 2024 12:01 pm

lovingseason2013 wrote:Im sorry for the slightly off topic post, but why doesn't anyone post the models here anymore? Seems mostly about discussing a certain model but without any visual. Thanks


Sometimes there is copyright stuff that doesn't allow certain things to be posted. Or someone can't upload and link being at work or whatever.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#274 Postby ElectricStorm » Mon Sep 23, 2024 12:18 pm

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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#275 Postby SouthFLTropics » Mon Sep 23, 2024 12:18 pm

12z HAFS-A going ballistic with 925 MB and 135 knots at 60 hours.

*UPDATE* and then the HAFS-B makes HAFS-A look like childs play. WOW!!!
Last edited by SouthFLTropics on Mon Sep 23, 2024 12:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#276 Postby kevin » Mon Sep 23, 2024 12:18 pm

HAFS-B has to be the strongest hurricane run I've ever seen in the Atlantic together with some crazy GFS runs for Irma. Approaching Gilbert and Wilma intensity, 889 mbar.

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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#277 Postby SouthFLTropics » Mon Sep 23, 2024 12:22 pm

Both HAFS are going insane... It's been quite some time since I've seen a hurricane model put out numbers like those.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#278 Postby Nuno » Mon Sep 23, 2024 12:23 pm

These are some absolutely intense runs. Not surprising given the sea temps...
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#279 Postby Steve » Mon Sep 23, 2024 12:24 pm

SouthFLTropics wrote:Both HAFS are going insane... It's been quite some time since I've seen a hurricane model put out numbers like those.



Yeah. You expect it from the NAM 3km but not sub 900’s from the hurricane models. At least not often though they do overtank pressure pretty frequently.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#280 Postby Teban54 » Mon Sep 23, 2024 12:25 pm

SouthFLTropics wrote:12z HAFS-A going ballistic with 925 MB and 135 knots at 60 hours.

*UPDATE* and then the HAFS-B makes HAFS-A look like childs play. WOW!!!

HAFS-A must have seen its sibling's work and want to catch up, as it has now deepened to 900 mb and 159 kt.

Edit: 899/162 right after my comment.
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