ATL: HELENE - Models
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models
HAFS A abd B don't have perfect data, but they are predicting Cat 4, we'll see if aircraft data changes that for the 18Z and 00Z rubs, I don't expect a Cat 5, but it can't be completely ruled out.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models
Euro


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Re: ATL: NINE - Models
CMC


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Re: ATL: NINE - Models
ICON has John crossing over and after Helene is gone it hits panama city or just west of there as a 1009 low.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models
Still a pretty wide spread on the 12z GFS ensembles. A distinct grouping EAST in the Steinhatchee area and WEST Apalachicola to Pensacola..ish
It's complicated
It's complicated
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

GFS Trend… Past few runs GFS seems to be moving away from this Fujiwara and burying into the CONUS towards a typical NE recurve…
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models
Right now the models are lining up for another predawn (Thursday AM) landfall in....Perry, much to Josh's chagrin (and the folks there of course)
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models
Does seem the 12z runs have stopped shifting as much; might indicate a more locked in solution.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Does seem the 12z runs have stopped shifting as much; might indicate a more locked in solution.
The 12z GFS ensembles aren't in agreement with the op so much. Pretty wide swath from E LA to Tampa. But focus Pensacola to Cedar Key.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models
Im sorry for the slightly off topic post, but why doesn't anyone post the models here anymore? Seems mostly about discussing a certain model but without any visual. Thanks
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models
lovingseason2013 wrote:Im sorry for the slightly off topic post, but why doesn't anyone post the models here anymore? Seems mostly about discussing a certain model but without any visual. Thanks
There's model posts right above this and more a page back.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models
lovingseason2013 wrote:Im sorry for the slightly off topic post, but why doesn't anyone post the models here anymore? Seems mostly about discussing a certain model but without any visual. Thanks
Sometimes there is copyright stuff that doesn't allow certain things to be posted. Or someone can't upload and link being at work or whatever.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models
Posted with no comment


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Re: ATL: NINE - Models
12z HAFS-A going ballistic with 925 MB and 135 knots at 60 hours.
*UPDATE* and then the HAFS-B makes HAFS-A look like childs play. WOW!!!
*UPDATE* and then the HAFS-B makes HAFS-A look like childs play. WOW!!!
Last edited by SouthFLTropics on Mon Sep 23, 2024 12:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models
HAFS-B has to be the strongest hurricane run I've ever seen in the Atlantic together with some crazy GFS runs for Irma. Approaching Gilbert and Wilma intensity, 889 mbar.


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Re: ATL: NINE - Models
Both HAFS are going insane... It's been quite some time since I've seen a hurricane model put out numbers like those.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models
These are some absolutely intense runs. Not surprising given the sea temps...
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models
SouthFLTropics wrote:Both HAFS are going insane... It's been quite some time since I've seen a hurricane model put out numbers like those.
Yeah. You expect it from the NAM 3km but not sub 900’s from the hurricane models. At least not often though they do overtank pressure pretty frequently.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models
SouthFLTropics wrote:12z HAFS-A going ballistic with 925 MB and 135 knots at 60 hours.
*UPDATE* and then the HAFS-B makes HAFS-A look like childs play. WOW!!!
HAFS-A must have seen its sibling's work and want to catch up, as it has now deepened to 900 mb and 159 kt.
Edit: 899/162 right after my comment.
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