ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[jjfl78]

Conditions here in Palm Harbor(North Pinellas) continue to deteriorate. Starting to feel some low-end TS gusts with intermittent heavy showers over the last 2 1/2 hours.

[Full8s]

Oh I read the messages. With family in the area, I cheer every bit of good news, such as Milton sucking dry air, Bon Appetit. 24 hours ago when the pressure was in the 890s and it was a Cat 5, no one was thinking of a possible Cat 2 landfall. True, the winds are not the problem, the surge is and the damage is set in stone.

That's not true. Lots of people/pros still followed the pattern, and believed it would still possibly weaken to a 2. Blanket statements are no good.

[cheezyWXguy]

Looks like the inner eyewall has just about given up and is being absorbed into the outer.

[FLLurker32]

Wow hope no one is craving Waffle house, they closed everthing on the gulf coast it looks like.
even stuff no longer in the cone

The cone depicts where the eye is expected to track. Impacts will be across the state in areas well outside of the cone.

[xironman]

Looks like the inner eyewall has just about given up and is being absorbed into the outer.

With that and the baroclinic enhancement we may get a burst before landfall

[NDG]

Heading between last two recon's fixes shows it took a nice NE heading, near 45 deg, straight NE job.

[UTSARoadrunner4]

I can’t really tell right now. Is Milton on track, east/south of track, or west/north of track?

[aaaaaa]

When was the last hurricane strike on or very near a city?

Otis ?

[CronkPSU]

I can’t really tell right now. Is Milton on track, east/south of track, or west/north of track?

pretty much on track

[Mike33534]

I can’t really tell right now. Is Milton on track, east/south of track, or west/north of track?

Last jog was to the east and putting it on the NHC line, however it could jog back north since it's wobbling

[xironman]

I can’t really tell right now. Is Milton on track, east/south of track, or west/north of track?

North, but he is starting to move right

[johngaltfla]

Heading between last two recon's fixes shows it took a nice NE heading, near 45 deg, straight NE job.

It's running out of real estate for that turn towards me. Tampa stay vigilant.

[kevin]

I can’t really tell right now. Is Milton on track, east/south of track, or west/north of track?

North, but he is starting to move right

https://i.imgur.com/IzSX4Xn.png

Now running parallel to the forecast track. The distance with the forecast track isn't increasing anymore, but it's also not decreasing yet.

[Frank P]

Latest

[NDG]

Heading between last two recon's fixes shows it took a nice NE heading, near 45 deg, straight NE job.

I left off that it has significantly slowed down, now averaging 13 mph during the past 3 hours, down from almost 18 mph earlier this morning.

[wxman57]

Depending upon whether I'm using radar or satellite, I get about 55 deg at 12 kts with radar and 51 deg at 13 kts with satellite. That points it south of Tampa Bay. Looking terrible on satellite now. Recon is finding a lot lower wind than yesterday. The dry air intrusion and weakening eyewall may keep those stronger winds elevated. Come on, dry air and shear!

[Sciencerocks]

So far only 80 knts smrf in northwest quad and 81 knots
Southeast quad 115 knts and 80 knts smrf

This suggest winds aint mixing down in these two quads.

Of course the northeast in earlier passes is stronger but only suggest 110 knts based on flight level and smrf.

[wxman57]

St. Petersburg is reporting an ENE wind at 35 kts gusting 45 kts. That's blowing bay water out of the bay. Much better than a SW wind.

[kevin]

Sligthly NW of forecast in the new 2pm NHC update.

Reality 02:00PM = 26.3N, 84.0W (+0.5N, -0.3W)
Forecast 02:00 PM = 26.2N, 83.9W (+0.4N, -0.4W)

[piffer28]

My sister sent a video. Winds are already picking up north of Tampa (Wesley Chapel area).